Language:English
Grêmio Novorizontino v São Bernardo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)
Prediction 62.62%1.60fair odd
EV -4.82%
Edge -3.17%
Kelly -9.26%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.22%62.64%62.83%64.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.481.491.5271.43%67.56%67.11%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
São Bernardo (Visit)
Prediction 14.97%6.68fair odd
EV +5.26%
Edge +0.748%
Kelly +0.872%
Growth +0.046%
assuming max odds 7.03
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.27%14.92%14.78%17.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.256.036.007.0319.05%16.59%16.67%14.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.41%4.46fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -0.796%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.52%22.44%22.39%23.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.044.084.3126.32%24.76%24.51%23.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio Novorizontino (Local): 62.62%; São Bernardo (Visit): 14.97%; Draw: 22.41%. For São Bernardo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.68. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.03, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.26%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.20%EV -6.69%E -4.49%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 7.03I 14.22%NM 13.61%EV +5.26%E +0.748%K +0.872%G +0.046% | 4.31I 23.20%NM 22.19%EV -3.43%E -0.796%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-25 22:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.75%EV -7.95%E -5.41%K -16.91%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV +4.81%E +0.687%K +0.801%G +0.039% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -8.13%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-25 22:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.07%EV -9.20%E -6.34%K -20.44%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV +4.81%E +0.687%K +0.801%G +0.039% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -8.13%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-25 22:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.46%EV -6.69%E -4.49%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.55%EV -2.68%E -0.412%K -0.487%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.99%EV -3.65%E -0.850%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-25 22:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.29%EV -7.32%E -4.95%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -2.68%E -0.412%K -0.487%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -5.89%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-25 22:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 63.26%EV -8.57%E -5.87%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.21%EV -2.68%E -0.412%K -0.487%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.53%EV -8.13%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-25 22:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.86%EV -9.83%E -6.82%K -22.33%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -2.68%E -0.412%K -0.487%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -12.62%E -3.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-25 22:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.86%EV -9.83%E -6.82%K -22.33%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -2.68%E -0.412%K -0.487%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -12.62%E -3.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-25 22:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.86%EV -9.83%E -6.82%K -22.33%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -2.68%E -0.412%K -0.487%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -12.62%E -3.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-25 22:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.86%EV -9.83%E -6.82%K -22.33%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -2.68%E -0.412%K -0.487%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -12.62%E -3.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-25 22:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.86%EV -9.83%E -6.82%K -22.33%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -2.68%E -0.412%K -0.487%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -12.62%E -3.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-25 22:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -12.33%E -8.81%K -30.83%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -2.68%E -0.412%K -0.487%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -5.89%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-25 20:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.48%EV -9.83%E -6.82%K -22.33%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -2.68%E -0.412%K -0.487%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -14.86%E -3.91%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-25 22:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.52%EV -6.07%E -4.05%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 6.47I 15.46%NM 14.49%EV -3.13%E -0.484%K -0.572%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 22.99%EV -8.58%E -2.10%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-25 22:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.65%EV -6.69%E -4.49%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -4.18%E -0.653%K -0.773%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -8.13%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-25 22:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.65%EV -6.69%E -4.49%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -4.18%E -0.653%K -0.773%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -8.13%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-25 22:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.65%EV -6.69%E -4.49%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -4.18%E -0.653%K -0.773%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -8.13%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-25 22:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.65%EV -7.95%E -5.41%K -16.91%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.62%EV -5.67%E -0.901%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.74%EV -9.25%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-25 22:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.07%E -4.05%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -10.17%E -1.69%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.89%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-25 18:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.07%E -4.05%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -10.17%E -1.69%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.89%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-25 22:04 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.07%E -4.05%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -10.17%E -1.69%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.89%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-25 22:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.54%EV -7.32%E -4.95%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -10.17%E -1.69%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -5.89%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-25 14:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -6.69%E -4.49%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -10.17%E -1.69%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -10.37%E -2.59%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-25 13:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.31%EV -7.32%E -4.95%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -10.17%E -1.69%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -13.74%E -3.57%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-25 22:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.16%EV -12.33%E -8.81%K -30.83%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.74%EV -10.17%E -1.69%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -10.37%E -2.59%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-25 22:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.87%EV -7.32%E -4.95%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.52%EV -11.66%E -1.98%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.61%EV -9.25%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-25 18:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.87%EV -7.32%E -4.95%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.52%EV -11.66%E -1.98%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.61%EV -9.25%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-25 18:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.24%EV -4.82%E -3.17%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.05%EV -13.16%E -2.27%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -8.13%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-25 22:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.40%EV -5.44%E -3.60%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.99%EV -13.16%E -2.27%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -8.13%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-25 22:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.40%EV -5.44%E -3.60%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.99%EV -13.16%E -2.27%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -8.13%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-25 22:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.40%EV -5.44%E -3.60%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.99%EV -13.16%E -2.27%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -8.13%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-25 22:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.40%EV -5.44%E -3.60%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.99%EV -13.16%E -2.27%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -8.13%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-25 22:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.40%EV -5.44%E -3.60%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.99%EV -13.16%E -2.27%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -8.13%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-25 22:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.40%EV -5.44%E -3.60%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.99%EV -13.16%E -2.27%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -8.13%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-25 22:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.88%EV -7.32%E -4.95%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.79%EV -13.16%E -2.27%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.34%EV -8.13%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-25 18:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.52%EV -6.07%E -4.05%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.21%EV -16.15%E -2.88%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -12.62%E -3.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-24 14:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.03%EV -6.07%E -4.05%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -17.65%E -3.21%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -8.13%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-25 14:39 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -6.07%E -4.05%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -17.65%E -3.21%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -10.37%E -2.59%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-25 13:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.48%EV -7.32%E -4.95%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.27%EV -17.65%E -3.21%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.25%EV -13.74%E -3.57%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-24 14:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.48%EV -7.32%E -4.95%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.27%EV -17.65%E -3.21%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.25%EV -13.74%E -3.57%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-24 14:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.48%EV -7.32%E -4.95%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.27%EV -17.65%E -3.21%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.25%EV -13.74%E -3.57%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-24 14:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.64%EV -7.95%E -5.41%K -16.91%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.21%EV -17.65%E -3.21%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.15%EV -13.74%E -3.57%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-25 22:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.46%EV -7.95%E -5.41%K -16.91%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.16%EV -17.65%E -3.21%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -14.86%E -3.91%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-24 14:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.22%EV -6.07%E -4.05%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -21.39%E -4.08%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -10.37%E -2.59%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-25 14:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.22%EV -6.07%E -4.05%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -21.39%E -4.08%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -10.37%E -2.59%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-25 14:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.22%EV -6.07%E -4.05%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -21.39%E -4.08%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -10.37%E -2.59%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-25 14:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.22%EV -6.07%E -4.05%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -21.39%E -4.08%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -10.37%E -2.59%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-25 14:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.83% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.48% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.69% | 0.2% | 2026-09-25 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.83% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.48% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.69% | 0.2% | 2026-09-25 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.83% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.48% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.69% | 0.2% | 2026-09-25 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.62% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.76% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.62% | 0.5% | 2026-09-25 22:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.98% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.43% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.59% | 0.6% | 2026-09-25 22:25 |