The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Grêmio Novorizontino v Ponte Preta

Kickoff: 2026-10-12 22:00 UTC

Final: Grêmio Novorizontino 5–1 Ponte Preta

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)

Prediction 87.30%1.15fair odd
EV -5.72%
Edge -5.30%
Kelly -71.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.91%87.42%87.17%89.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.061.061.0898.04%94.46%94.34%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ponte Preta (Visit)

Prediction 3.94%25.41fair odd
EV +21.99%
Edge +0.709%
Kelly +0.733%
Growth +0.161%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.99%3.96%3.98%5.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0023.6423.0031.005.56%4.23%4.35%3.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 8.77%11.40fair odd
EV +29.33%
Edge +1.99%
Kelly +2.13%
Growth +0.626%

assuming max odds 14.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.53%8.62%8.85%10.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5010.6410.0014.7511.76%9.40%10.00%6.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio Novorizontino (Local): 87.30%; Ponte Preta (Visit): 3.94%; Draw: 8.77%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.40. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 14.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +29.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.99%EV -6.59%E -6.16%K -94.18%G +0.000%27.69I 3.61%NM 3.48%EV +8.97%E +0.324%K +0.336%G +0.030%14.75I 6.78%NM 6.53%EV +29.33%E +1.99%K +2.13%G +0.626%3.8%2026-10-12 21:45
Betway🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.01%EV -6.59%E -6.16%K -94.18%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.66%EV +2.32%E +0.089%K +0.093%G +0.002%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.33%EV +13.99%E +1.08%K +1.17%G +0.163%5.0%2026-10-12 21:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 88.33%EV -10.96%E -10.74%K -547.88%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.74%EV -25.23%E -1.33%K -1.40%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%EV +13.99%E +1.08%K +1.17%G +0.163%11.0%2026-10-12 21:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.89%EV -8.34%E -7.94%K -166.77%G +0.000%19.50I 5.13%NM 4.73%EV -23.26%E -1.19%K -1.26%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.38%EV +9.60%E +0.768%K +0.835%G +0.080%8.4%2026-10-12 21:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.78%EV -8.34%E -7.94%K -166.77%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.85%EV -25.23%E -1.33%K -1.40%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV +9.60%E +0.768%K +0.835%G +0.080%8.5%2026-10-12 21:45
1xBet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.51%EV -9.21%E -8.86%K -230.29%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.00%EV -9.49%E -0.413%K -0.431%G +0.000%12.30I 8.13%NM 7.48%EV +7.85%E +0.638%K +0.695%G +0.055%8.6%2026-10-12 20:45
Bovada🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.17%EV -7.47%E -7.04%K -124.43%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.13%EV -29.17%E -1.62%K -1.72%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV +5.22%E +0.435%K +0.474%G +0.025%8.2%2026-10-12 17:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.61%EV -9.21%E -8.86%K -230.29%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.54%EV +2.32%E +0.089%K +0.093%G +0.002%11.75I 8.51%NM 7.84%EV +3.03%E +0.258%K +0.281%G +0.009%8.5%2026-10-12 21:54
Unibet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.27%EV -7.47%E -7.04%K -124.43%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV +2.32%E +0.089%K +0.093%G +0.002%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV +0.834%E +0.073%K +0.079%G +0.001%6.9%2026-10-12 21:29
Casumo🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.27%EV -7.47%E -7.04%K -124.43%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV +2.32%E +0.089%K +0.093%G +0.002%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV +0.834%E +0.073%K +0.079%G +0.001%6.9%2026-10-12 21:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.27%EV -7.47%E -7.04%K -124.43%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV +2.32%E +0.089%K +0.093%G +0.002%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV +0.834%E +0.073%K +0.079%G +0.001%6.9%2026-10-12 21:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.27%EV -7.47%E -7.04%K -124.43%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV +2.32%E +0.089%K +0.093%G +0.002%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV +0.834%E +0.073%K +0.079%G +0.001%6.9%2026-10-12 21:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.27%EV -7.47%E -7.04%K -124.43%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV +2.32%E +0.089%K +0.093%G +0.002%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV +0.834%E +0.073%K +0.079%G +0.001%6.9%2026-10-12 21:29
ATG (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.27%EV -7.47%E -7.04%K -124.43%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV +2.32%E +0.089%K +0.093%G +0.002%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV +0.834%E +0.073%K +0.079%G +0.001%6.9%2026-10-12 21:30
betPARX🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.27%EV -7.47%E -7.04%K -124.43%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV +2.32%E +0.089%K +0.093%G +0.002%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV +0.834%E +0.073%K +0.079%G +0.001%6.9%2026-10-12 21:29
BoyleSports🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.04%EV -8.34%E -7.94%K -166.77%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.56%EV +2.32%E +0.089%K +0.093%G +0.002%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.40%EV -3.55%E -0.323%K -0.355%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-12 21:49
theScore Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 87.74%EV -9.21%E -8.86%K -230.29%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.97%EV -9.49%E -0.413%K -0.431%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.30%EV -3.55%E -0.323%K -0.355%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-12 05:09
BetMGM🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.72%E -5.30%K -71.50%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV -17.36%E -0.827%K -0.868%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -7.93%E -0.756%K -0.835%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-12 21:54
BetRivers🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.18%EV -7.47%E -7.04%K -124.43%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.02%EV -9.49%E -0.413%K -0.431%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.80%EV -7.93%E -0.756%K -0.835%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-12 21:30
Grosvenor🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 87.39%EV -9.21%E -8.86%K -230.29%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.95%EV -9.49%E -0.413%K -0.431%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV -7.93%E -0.756%K -0.835%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-12 21:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 87.39%EV -9.21%E -8.86%K -230.29%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.95%EV -9.49%E -0.413%K -0.431%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV -7.93%E -0.756%K -0.835%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-12 21:29
888sport🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.32%EV -5.72%E -5.30%K -71.50%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.25%EV +14.12%E +0.487%K +0.504%G +0.071%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -12.32%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-12 21:54
William Hill🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.32%EV -5.72%E -5.30%K -71.50%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.25%EV +14.12%E +0.487%K +0.504%G +0.071%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -12.32%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-12 21:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.32%EV -5.72%E -5.30%K -71.50%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.25%EV +14.12%E +0.487%K +0.504%G +0.071%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -12.32%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-12 21:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.32%EV -5.72%E -5.30%K -71.50%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.25%EV +14.12%E +0.487%K +0.504%G +0.071%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -12.32%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-12 21:54
Coolbet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.87%EV -5.72%E -5.30%K -71.50%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%EV -1.62%E -0.065%K -0.067%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -12.32%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-12 21:49
LeoVegas🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.69%EV -6.59%E -6.16%K -94.18%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.03%EV -9.49%E -0.413%K -0.431%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.28%EV -12.32%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-12 21:53
BetUS🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.20%EV -7.47%E -7.04%K -124.43%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.56%EV +2.32%E +0.089%K +0.093%G +0.002%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -12.32%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-12 21:44
NordicBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.80%EV -7.47%E -7.04%K -124.43%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.00%EV -9.49%E -0.413%K -0.431%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -12.32%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-12 21:45
Betsson🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.80%EV -7.47%E -7.04%K -124.43%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.00%EV -9.49%E -0.413%K -0.431%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -12.32%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-12 21:43
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 87.12%EV -10.08%E -9.79%K -336.15%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.90%EV -9.49%E -0.413%K -0.431%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -12.32%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-12 21:29
TABtouch🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 87.12%EV -10.08%E -9.79%K -336.15%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.90%EV -9.49%E -0.413%K -0.431%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -12.32%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-12 21:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 86.91%EV -10.96%E -10.74%K -547.88%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.22%EV -17.36%E -0.827%K -0.868%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.87%EV -12.32%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-12 21:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.48%EV -7.47%E -7.04%K -124.43%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.17%EV -13.42%E -0.610%K -0.639%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.35%EV -14.07%E -1.44%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-12 21:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.99%EV -6.59%E -6.16%K -94.18%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.21%EV +14.12%E +0.487%K +0.504%G +0.071%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -16.70%E -1.76%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-12 21:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.94%EV -6.59%E -6.16%K -94.18%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%EV -17.36%E -0.827%K -0.868%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -16.70%E -1.76%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-12 21:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.55%EV -6.59%E -6.16%K -94.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.82%EV -25.23%E -1.33%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -16.70%E -1.76%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-12 21:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.55%EV -6.59%E -6.16%K -94.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.82%EV -25.23%E -1.33%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -16.70%E -1.76%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-12 21:54
Neds🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.55%EV -6.59%E -6.16%K -94.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.82%EV -25.23%E -1.33%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -16.70%E -1.76%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-12 21:54
Coral🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.55%EV -6.59%E -6.16%K -94.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.82%EV -25.23%E -1.33%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -16.70%E -1.76%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-12 21:55
PlayUp🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.70%EV -6.59%E -6.16%K -94.18%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 2.99%EV +21.99%E +0.709%K +0.733%G +0.161%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -21.09%E -2.34%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-12 21:45
betfred_uk🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 85.33%EV -8.34%E -7.94%K -166.77%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.72%EV -25.23%E -1.33%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.96%EV -21.09%E -2.34%K -2.64%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-12 21:24
Bet Victor🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.91%EV -7.47%E -7.04%K -124.43%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%EV -21.29%E -1.06%K -1.12%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.59%EV -25.47%E -3.00%K -3.40%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-12 21:45
betano_uk🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.91%EV -7.47%E -7.04%K -124.43%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%EV -21.29%E -1.06%K -1.12%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.59%EV -25.47%E -3.00%K -3.40%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-12 21:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.09I 91.74%NM 91.02%42.00I 2.38%NM 2.36%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.61%0.8%2026-10-12 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 90.92%40.00I 2.50%NM 2.48%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.61%0.9%2026-10-12 21:44
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 90.92%40.00I 2.50%NM 2.48%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.61%0.9%2026-10-12 21:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 90.92%40.00I 2.50%NM 2.48%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.61%0.9%2026-10-12 21:45
Smarkets◎1.08I 92.59%NM 90.99%40.00I 2.50%NM 2.46%14.99I 6.67%NM 6.56%1.8%2026-10-12 21:45