Language:English
Grêmio Novorizontino v Goiás
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)
Prediction 62.78%1.59fair odd
EV +0.446%
Edge +0.279%
Kelly +0.744%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 1.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.52%62.52%62.75%64.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.481.481.6071.43%67.58%67.57%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Goiás (Visit)
Prediction 14.31%6.99fair odd
EV +4.77%
Edge +0.652%
Kelly +0.755%
Growth +0.036%
assuming max odds 7.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.09%14.51%14.29%17.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.156.236.207.3219.42%16.06%16.13%13.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.91%4.37fair odd
EV -1.04%
Edge -0.241%
Kelly -0.313%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.52%22.97%22.96%24.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.943.904.3227.40%25.40%25.64%23.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio Novorizontino (Local): 62.78%; Goiás (Visit): 14.31%; Draw: 22.91%. For Goiás (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.99. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.32, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.77%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.73%EV -7.09%E -4.79%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 7.32I 13.66%NM 13.09%EV +4.77%E +0.652%K +0.755%G +0.036% | 4.32I 23.15%NM 22.18%EV -1.04%E -0.241%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-01 23:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -8.97%E -6.19%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV +0.194%E +0.028%K +0.032%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -3.79%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-01 23:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -8.97%E -6.19%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV +0.194%E +0.028%K +0.032%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -3.79%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-01 23:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -8.97%E -6.19%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV +0.194%E +0.028%K +0.032%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -3.79%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-01 23:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -8.97%E -6.19%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV +0.194%E +0.028%K +0.032%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -3.79%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-01 23:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 63.91%EV -8.34%E -5.71%K -18.14%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV +0.194%E +0.028%K +0.032%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.08%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-01 23:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.25%EV -7.09%E -4.79%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 6.89I 14.51%NM 13.59%EV -1.38%E -0.200%K -0.234%G +0.000% | 4.04I 24.75%NM 23.17%EV -7.45%E -1.84%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-01 23:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.92%EV -7.09%E -4.79%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.80%EV -3.38%E -0.501%K -0.589%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -8.37%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-01 23:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -9.60%E -6.67%K -21.81%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.64%EV -3.38%E -0.501%K -0.589%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -6.08%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-01 23:43 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.13%EV -6.46%E -4.34%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -6.96%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -3.79%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-01 23:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.29%EV -7.09%E -4.79%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -6.96%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -3.79%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-01 23:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.59%EV -7.09%E -4.79%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -6.96%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -8.37%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-01 23:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.22%EV -7.09%E -4.79%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -6.96%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -10.66%E -2.73%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-01 23:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.07%EV -8.97%E -6.19%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.07%EV -6.96%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.37%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-01 23:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -12.11%E -8.65%K -30.27%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -6.96%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -3.79%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-01 23:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.48%EV -9.60%E -6.67%K -21.81%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -6.96%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -12.95%E -3.41%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-01 23:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.48%EV -9.60%E -6.67%K -21.81%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -6.96%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -12.95%E -3.41%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-01 23:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.28%EV -9.60%E -6.67%K -21.81%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.80%EV -6.96%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -14.10%E -3.76%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-01 23:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.88%EV -12.11%E -8.65%K -30.27%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.76%EV -6.96%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -8.37%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-01 23:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.88%EV -12.11%E -8.65%K -30.27%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.76%EV -6.96%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -8.37%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-01 23:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.59%EV -7.09%E -4.79%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.82%EV -10.54%E -1.69%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -6.08%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-01 23:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.09%EV -7.09%E -4.79%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.47%EV -10.54%E -1.69%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -15.24%E -4.12%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-01 23:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.32%EV -7.71%E -5.25%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.78%EV -11.26%E -1.82%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -8.37%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-01 23:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.14%EV -7.71%E -5.25%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.73%EV -11.26%E -1.82%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.13%EV -9.51%E -2.41%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-01 23:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.14%EV -7.71%E -5.25%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.73%EV -11.26%E -1.82%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.13%EV -9.51%E -2.41%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-01 23:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.21%EV -2.69%E -1.74%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -14.12%E -2.35%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -11.81%E -3.07%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-01 23:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.21%EV -2.69%E -1.74%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -14.12%E -2.35%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -11.81%E -3.07%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-01 23:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.21%EV -2.69%E -1.74%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -14.12%E -2.35%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -11.81%E -3.07%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-01 23:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.21%EV -2.69%E -1.74%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -14.12%E -2.35%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -11.81%E -3.07%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-01 23:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.21%EV -2.69%E -1.74%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -14.12%E -2.35%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -11.81%E -3.07%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-01 23:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.55%EV -3.32%E -2.16%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -14.12%E -2.35%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -10.66%E -2.73%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-01 23:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.55%EV -3.32%E -2.16%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -14.12%E -2.35%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -10.66%E -2.73%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-01 23:53 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -7.09%E -4.79%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -14.12%E -2.35%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -8.37%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-01 23:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -9.60%E -6.67%K -21.81%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -14.12%E -2.35%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.94%EV -10.66%E -2.73%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-01 23:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -9.60%E -6.67%K -21.81%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -14.12%E -2.35%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.94%EV -10.66%E -2.73%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-01 23:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -9.60%E -6.67%K -21.81%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -14.12%E -2.35%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.94%EV -10.66%E -2.73%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-01 23:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -9.60%E -6.67%K -21.81%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -14.12%E -2.35%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.94%EV -10.66%E -2.73%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-01 23:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.09%EV -7.09%E -4.79%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.72%EV -17.70%E -3.08%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -10.66%E -2.73%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-01 23:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.09%EV -7.09%E -4.79%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.72%EV -17.70%E -3.08%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -10.66%E -2.73%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-01 23:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.09%EV -7.09%E -4.79%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.72%EV -17.70%E -3.08%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -10.66%E -2.73%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-01 23:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.09%EV -7.09%E -4.79%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.72%EV -17.70%E -3.08%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -10.66%E -2.73%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-01 23:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.76%EV -5.83%E -3.89%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.01%EV -19.84%E -3.54%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -15.24%E -4.12%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-01 23:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.76%EV -5.83%E -3.89%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.01%EV -19.84%E -3.54%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -15.24%E -4.12%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-01 23:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.76%EV -5.83%E -3.89%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.01%EV -19.84%E -3.54%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -15.24%E -4.12%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-01 23:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.57%EV -5.83%E -3.89%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.96%EV -19.84%E -3.54%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%EV -16.39%E -4.49%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-01 23:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.95%EV -3.32%E -2.16%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -21.28%E -3.87%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.54%EV -15.24%E -4.12%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-01 23:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 59.55%EV -6.46%E -4.34%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -21.28%E -3.87%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.31%EV -16.39%E -4.49%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-10-01 23:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.52%EV +0.446%E +0.279%K +0.744%G +0.003% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 17.87%EV -26.29%E -5.10%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 24.61%EV -14.33%E -3.83%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-01 18:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.25% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.71% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04% | 0.8% | 2026-10-01 23:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.92% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.65% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.43% | 1.3% | 2026-10-01 23:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.92% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.65% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.43% | 1.3% | 2026-10-01 23:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.92% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.65% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.43% | 1.3% | 2026-10-01 23:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.92% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.65% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.43% | 1.3% | 2026-10-01 23:55 |