The School of Odds

Goiás v Sport Recife

2026-07-22 23:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Goiás (Local)

Prediction 41.33%2.42fair odd
EV -7.01%
Edge -3.12%
Kelly -5.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.33%41.33%41.33%41.55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.122.202.252.2547%45%44%44%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sport Recife (Visit)

Prediction 29.81%3.35fair odd
EV -6.10%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -2.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.68%29.81%29.81%30.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.953.073.153.1534%33%32%32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.86%3.46fair odd
EV -6.19%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -2.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.58%28.86%28.86%28.86%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.053.183.253.2533%31%31%31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -7.01%E -3.12%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -6.10%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.19%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-14 12:29
Unibet (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -7.01%E -3.12%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -6.10%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.19%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-14 12:28
Unibet (NL)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -7.01%E -3.12%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -6.10%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.19%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-14 12:29
Casumo2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -7.01%E -3.12%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -6.10%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.19%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-14 12:29
ATG (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -7.01%E -3.12%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -6.10%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.19%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-14 12:29
Svenska Spel2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -7.01%E -3.12%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -6.10%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.19%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-14 12:29
betPARX2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -7.01%E -3.12%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -6.10%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.19%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-14 12:34
BetRivers2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -9.08%E -4.13%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -9.08%E -2.98%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -9.08%E -2.88%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-14 12:29
Grosvenor2.16I 46.30%NM 41.38%EV -10.73%E -4.97%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.57%E -3.52%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -10.52%E -3.39%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-14 12:29
LeoVegas (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -11.15%E -5.18%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.57%E -3.52%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.52%E -3.39%K -5.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-14 12:29
TABtouch2.14I 46.73%NM 41.40%EV -11.56%E -5.40%K -10.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.03%EV -12.06%E -4.09%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.58%EV -10.52%E -3.39%K -5.01%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-14 12:29
LiveScore Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 41.43%EV -12.39%E -5.84%K -11.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.77%EV -12.06%E -4.09%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.80%EV -11.97%E -3.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-14 12:29
Virgin Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 41.43%EV -12.39%E -5.84%K -11.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.77%EV -12.06%E -4.09%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.80%EV -11.97%E -3.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-14 12:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.