The School of Odds

Goiás v Sport Recife

2026-07-21 00:00 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Goiás (Local)

Prediction 40.80%2.45fair odd
EV -6.99%
Edge -3.06%
Kelly -5.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.65%40.80%40.80%41.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.142.232.282.2847%45%44%44%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sport Recife (Visit)

Prediction 30.32%3.30fair odd
EV -5.99%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -2.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.18%30.32%30.32%30.42%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.883.023.103.1035%33%32%32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.88%3.46fair odd
EV -6.14%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -2.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.70%28.88%28.88%28.92%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.053.173.253.2533%32%31%31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -6.99%E -3.06%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -6.14%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-14 12:09
Casumo2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -6.99%E -3.06%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -6.14%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-14 12:15
Unibet (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -6.99%E -3.06%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -6.14%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-14 12:14
Unibet (NL)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -6.99%E -3.06%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -6.14%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-14 12:14
betPARX2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -6.99%E -3.06%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -6.14%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-14 12:15
ATG (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -6.99%E -3.06%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -6.14%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-14 12:15
Svenska Spel2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -6.99%E -3.06%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -6.14%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-14 12:14
BetRivers2.23I 44.84%NM 40.80%EV -9.03%E -4.05%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -9.03%E -3.01%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -9.03%E -2.87%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-14 12:15
Grosvenor2.20I 45.45%NM 40.73%EV -10.25%E -4.66%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -10.54%E -3.57%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -10.47%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-14 12:14
LeoVegas (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 40.95%EV -11.07%E -5.08%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.26%EV -10.54%E -3.57%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -10.47%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-14 12:14
TABtouch2.17I 46.08%NM 40.65%EV -11.47%E -5.29%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.42%EV -12.06%E -4.16%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.92%EV -11.91%E -3.91%K -5.81%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-14 12:14
LiveScore Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 40.90%EV -12.70%E -5.93%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.39%EV -12.67%E -4.40%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.70%EV -11.91%E -3.91%K -5.81%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-14 12:14
Virgin Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 40.90%EV -12.70%E -5.93%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.39%EV -12.67%E -4.40%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.70%EV -11.91%E -3.91%K -5.81%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-14 12:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.