The School of Odds
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Goiás v Sport Recife

Kickoff: 2026-07-21 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Goiás (Local)

Prediction 40.80%2.45fair odd
EV -6.99%
Edge -3.06%
Kelly -5.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.65%40.80%40.80%41.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.142.232.282.2846.73%44.80%43.86%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sport Recife (Visit)

Prediction 30.32%3.30fair odd
EV -5.99%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -2.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.18%30.32%30.32%30.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.023.103.1034.72%33.11%32.26%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.88%3.46fair odd
EV -6.14%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -2.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.70%28.88%28.88%28.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.173.253.2532.79%31.52%30.77%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Goiás (Local): 40.80%; Sport Recife (Visit): 30.32%; Draw: 28.88%. For Sport Recife (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.30. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -5.99%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -6.99%E -3.06%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -6.14%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-14 12:09
Casumo2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -6.99%E -3.06%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -6.14%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-14 12:15
Unibet (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -6.99%E -3.06%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -6.14%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-14 12:14
Unibet (NL)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -6.99%E -3.06%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -6.14%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-14 12:14
betPARX2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -6.99%E -3.06%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -6.14%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-14 12:15
ATG (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -6.99%E -3.06%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -6.14%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-14 12:15
Svenska Spel2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -6.99%E -3.06%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -6.14%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-14 12:14
BetRivers2.23I 44.84%NM 40.80%EV -9.03%E -4.05%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -9.03%E -3.01%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -9.03%E -2.87%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-14 12:15
Grosvenor2.20I 45.45%NM 40.73%EV -10.25%E -4.66%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -10.54%E -3.57%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -10.47%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-14 12:14
LeoVegas (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 40.95%EV -11.07%E -5.08%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.26%EV -10.54%E -3.57%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -10.47%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-14 12:14
TABtouch2.17I 46.08%NM 40.65%EV -11.47%E -5.29%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.42%EV -12.06%E -4.16%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.92%EV -11.91%E -3.91%K -5.81%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-14 12:14
LiveScore Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 40.90%EV -12.70%E -5.93%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.39%EV -12.67%E -4.40%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.70%EV -11.91%E -3.91%K -5.81%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-14 12:14
Virgin Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 40.90%EV -12.70%E -5.93%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.39%EV -12.67%E -4.40%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.70%EV -11.91%E -3.91%K -5.81%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-14 12:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.