Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Goiás v Atletico Goianiense

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 21:30 UTC

Final: Goiás 0–1 Atletico Goianiense

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Goiás (Local)

Prediction 35.68%2.80fair odd
EV -4.01%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -2.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.54%35.84%35.70%38.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.562.552.6942.55%39.07%39.22%37.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atletico Goianiense (Visit)

Prediction 33.12%3.02fair odd
EV -0.649%
Edge -0.216%
Kelly -0.324%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.56%32.89%33.19%34.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.822.803.0038.17%35.42%35.71%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.20%3.21fair odd
EV -3.28%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.11%31.27%31.11%33.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.902.883.1037.04%34.49%34.72%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Goiás (Local): 35.68%; Atletico Goianiense (Visit): 33.12%; Draw: 31.20%. For Atletico Goianiense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.02. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.00, with an expected value of -0.649%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 35.82%EV -4.01%E -1.49%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.89%EV -2.97%E -1.01%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.29%EV -3.90%E -1.27%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-26 21:25
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -5.44%E -2.05%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.22%EV -5.62%E -1.97%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.05%EV -4.84%E -1.59%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 21:15
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -5.44%E -2.05%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -7.27%E -2.60%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-26 21:04
LowVig.ag🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.02%EV -6.51%E -2.48%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.32%EV -3.30%E -1.13%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.67%EV -7.02%E -2.36%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-26 21:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.02%EV -6.51%E -2.48%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.32%EV -3.30%E -1.13%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.67%EV -7.02%E -2.36%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-26 21:15
BetUS🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.02%EV -6.51%E -2.48%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.32%EV -3.30%E -1.13%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.67%EV -7.02%E -2.36%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-26 21:15
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -7.22%E -2.78%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -2.30%E -0.781%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -7.96%E -2.70%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-26 21:29
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.22%E -2.78%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -2.30%E -0.781%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.66%EV -11.08%E -3.89%K -5.99%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-26 21:25
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.22%E -2.78%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -2.30%E -0.781%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.66%EV -11.08%E -3.89%K -5.99%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-26 21:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.22%E -2.78%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -2.30%E -0.781%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.66%EV -11.08%E -3.89%K -5.99%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-26 21:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.22%E -2.78%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -2.30%E -0.781%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.66%EV -11.08%E -3.89%K -5.99%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-26 21:25
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.22%E -2.78%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -2.30%E -0.781%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.66%EV -11.08%E -3.89%K -5.99%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-26 21:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.22%E -2.78%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -2.30%E -0.781%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.66%EV -11.08%E -3.89%K -5.99%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-26 21:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -7.22%E -2.78%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -0.649%E -0.216%K -0.324%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -12.64%E -4.51%K -7.02%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-26 21:29
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -7.22%E -2.78%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -7.27%E -2.60%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-26 21:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.22%E -2.78%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.45%EV -8.93%E -3.25%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -7.96%E -2.70%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-26 21:05
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -7.22%E -2.78%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -10.58%E -3.92%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-26 21:05
888sport🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -7.22%E -2.78%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%EV -7.27%E -2.60%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -10.14%E -3.52%K -5.40%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-26 21:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -7.22%E -2.78%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%EV -7.27%E -2.60%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -10.14%E -3.52%K -5.40%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-26 21:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -7.22%E -2.78%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%EV -7.27%E -2.60%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -10.14%E -3.52%K -5.40%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-26 21:05
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -7.22%E -2.78%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%EV -7.27%E -2.60%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -10.14%E -3.52%K -5.40%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-26 21:04
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -7.22%E -2.78%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.28%EV -13.23%E -5.05%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.18%EV -10.14%E -3.52%K -5.40%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-26 21:05
Bovada🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.77%EV -7.94%E -3.08%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -7.27%E -2.60%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.28%EV -7.96%E -2.70%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-26 21:25
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.45%EV -9.01%E -3.53%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.05%EV -3.96%E -1.37%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -7.96%E -2.70%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-26 21:20
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -9.01%E -3.53%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.16%EV -7.27%E -2.60%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.44%EV -4.84%E -1.59%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-26 21:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -9.01%E -3.53%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -7.27%E -2.60%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-26 21:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.01%EV -9.01%E -3.53%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.39%EV -8.93%E -3.25%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-26 21:20
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.82%EV -9.01%E -3.53%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.22%EV -8.93%E -3.25%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.96%EV -7.96%E -2.70%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-26 21:20
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.82%EV -9.01%E -3.53%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.22%EV -8.93%E -3.25%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.96%EV -7.96%E -2.70%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-26 21:20
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.64%EV -9.01%E -3.53%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.89%EV -5.62%E -1.97%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -12.64%E -4.51%K -7.02%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-26 21:15
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -9.01%E -3.53%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.45%EV -10.58%E -3.92%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -9.52%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-26 20:55
betano_uk🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -9.01%E -3.53%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.45%EV -10.58%E -3.92%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -9.52%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-26 21:29
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -9.01%E -3.53%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.45%EV -10.58%E -3.92%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -9.52%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-26 21:25
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -10.79%E -4.32%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -8.93%E -3.25%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -9.52%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-26 21:25
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -10.79%E -4.32%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -7.27%E -2.60%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -12.64%E -4.51%K -7.02%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-26 21:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.89%EV -10.79%E -4.32%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.48%EV -5.62%E -1.97%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -14.20%E -5.16%K -8.11%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-26 21:25
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.89%EV -10.79%E -4.32%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.48%EV -5.62%E -1.97%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -14.20%E -5.16%K -8.11%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-26 21:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.89%EV -10.79%E -4.32%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.48%EV -5.62%E -1.97%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -14.20%E -5.16%K -8.11%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-26 21:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -10.79%E -4.32%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -10.58%E -3.92%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -10.14%E -3.52%K -5.40%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-26 20:54
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -10.79%E -4.32%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -10.58%E -3.92%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -10.14%E -3.52%K -5.40%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-26 20:55
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.75%EV -10.79%E -4.32%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -10.58%E -3.92%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.14%EV -10.46%E -3.64%K -5.59%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-26 20:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.75%EV -10.79%E -4.32%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -10.58%E -3.92%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.14%EV -10.46%E -3.64%K -5.59%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-26 20:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.67%EV -10.79%E -4.32%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.29%EV -5.62%E -1.97%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -15.76%E -5.84%K -9.27%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-26 21:29
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -10.79%E -4.32%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -10.58%E -3.92%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -12.64%E -4.51%K -7.02%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-26 18:39
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 35.66%EV -11.51%E -4.64%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.58%EV -7.27%E -2.60%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.75%EV -15.76%E -5.84%K -9.27%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-26 21:25
1xBet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.25%EV -12.93%E -5.30%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -2.30%E -0.781%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -3.28%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-26 21:29
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.36%EV -16.14%E -6.87%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -2.30%E -0.781%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.08%EV -9.52%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-26 21:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.13%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%1.0%2026-09-26 21:15
Matchbook◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.30%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.85%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.85%1.3%2026-09-26 21:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.30%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.85%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.85%1.3%2026-09-26 21:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.30%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.85%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.85%1.3%2026-09-26 21:25
Smarkets◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.11%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.20%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.68%1.8%2026-09-26 21:25