Language:English
Goiás v Athletic Club (MG)
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Goiás (Local)
Prediction 53.19%1.88fair odd
EV -5.31%
Edge -2.99%
Kelly -6.81%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.65%53.21%53.27%54.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.731.731.7860.61%57.85%57.80%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Athletic Club (MG) (Visit)
Prediction 19.43%5.15fair odd
EV +1.04%
Edge +0.199%
Kelly +0.247%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 5.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.12%19.41%19.39%21.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.684.755.2023.81%21.38%21.05%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.38%3.65fair odd
EV -4.19%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.59%27.38%27.34%28.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.353.303.5031.25%29.87%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Goiás (Local): 53.19%; Athletic Club (MG) (Visit): 19.43%; Draw: 27.38%. For Athletic Club (MG) (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.15. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.04%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.16%EV -7.44%E -4.28%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%EV +1.04%E +0.199%K +0.247%G +0.003% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.86%EV -9.04%E -5.29%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.24%EV -1.88%E -0.372%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-04 18:17 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.61%EV -8.51%E -4.95%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -2.85%E -0.570%K -0.712%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-03 10:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.61%EV -8.51%E -4.95%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -2.85%E -0.570%K -0.712%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-03 10:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.61%EV -8.51%E -4.95%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -2.85%E -0.570%K -0.712%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-03 10:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.00%EV -9.04%E -5.29%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.84%EV -4.79%E -0.978%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-04 17:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.90%EV -8.51%E -4.95%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.84I 20.66%NM 19.15%EV -5.96%E -1.23%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 26.95%EV -5.83%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-05 10:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.28%EV -6.38%E -3.62%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -6.74%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-04 18:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.42%EV -6.91%E -3.95%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -6.74%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 09:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.42%EV -6.91%E -3.95%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -6.74%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 09:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.42%EV -6.91%E -3.95%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -6.74%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 09:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.42%EV -6.91%E -3.95%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -6.74%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 09:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.42%EV -6.91%E -3.95%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -6.74%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 09:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.42%EV -6.91%E -3.95%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -6.74%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 09:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.42%EV -6.91%E -3.95%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -6.74%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 09:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.79%EV -9.04%E -5.29%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -6.74%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-04 18:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.24%EV -12.23%E -7.41%K -18.81%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.64%EV -6.74%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.12%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-04 23:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.68%EV -5.31%E -2.99%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -7.71%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -6.91%E -3.95%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -7.71%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -6.91%E -3.95%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -7.71%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-05 06:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.81%EV -7.44%E -4.28%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -7.71%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-04 18:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.44%EV -6.91%E -3.95%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.32%EV -7.71%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -11.03%E -3.39%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-05 11:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.44%EV -6.91%E -3.95%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.32%EV -7.71%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -11.03%E -3.39%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-05 11:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.44%EV -6.91%E -3.95%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.32%EV -7.71%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -11.03%E -3.39%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-05 11:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.44%EV -6.91%E -3.95%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.32%EV -7.71%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -11.03%E -3.39%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-05 11:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.93%EV -9.57%E -5.63%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.94%EV -7.71%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -12.40%E -3.87%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-04 18:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.13%EV -9.04%E -5.29%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.33%EV -8.68%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-04 18:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -6.91%E -3.95%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -10.62%E -2.31%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -4.19%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-05 11:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -6.91%E -3.95%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -10.62%E -2.31%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -4.19%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-05 07:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.20%EV -8.51%E -4.95%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.89%EV -10.62%E -2.31%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-04 18:21 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.20%EV -8.51%E -4.95%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.89%EV -10.62%E -2.31%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-04 18:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.98%EV -8.51%E -4.95%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV -10.62%E -2.31%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -8.29%E -2.48%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-05 09:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.32%EV -8.51%E -4.95%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -10.62%E -2.31%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -12.40%E -3.87%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-05 11:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.39%EV -7.97%E -4.61%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -12.56%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-04 18:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.17%EV -7.97%E -4.61%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.06%EV -12.56%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -11.03%E -3.39%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-04 18:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.83%EV -9.57%E -5.63%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -12.56%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-05 09:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.83%EV -9.57%E -5.63%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -12.56%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-05 09:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.83%EV -9.57%E -5.63%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -12.56%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-05 09:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.90%EV -10.63%E -6.33%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.75%EV -12.56%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.35%EV -11.03%E -3.39%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-05 09:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.90%EV -10.63%E -6.33%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.75%EV -12.56%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.35%EV -11.03%E -3.39%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-05 09:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.43%EV -7.44%E -4.28%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -14.51%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-05 08:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 52.66%EV -9.04%E -5.29%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -14.51%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -8.29%E -2.48%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-04 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.65%EV -7.97%E -4.61%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -18.39%E -4.38%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-05 08:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.65%EV -7.97%E -4.61%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -18.39%E -4.38%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-05 08:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.65%EV -7.97%E -4.61%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -18.39%E -4.38%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-05 08:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.65%EV -7.97%E -4.61%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -18.39%E -4.38%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-05 08:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.31% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.38% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.31% | 4.6% | 2026-10-05 13:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.45% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54% | 6.8% | 2026-10-05 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.45% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54% | 6.8% | 2026-10-05 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.45% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54% | 6.8% | 2026-10-05 14:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.58% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35% | 8.5% | 2026-10-05 15:10 |