The School of Odds
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Goiás v América Mineiro

Kickoff: 2026-03-20 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Goiás (Local)

Prediction 51.69%1.93fair odd
EV -5.92%
Edge -3.25%
Kelly -7.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.60%51.69%51.69%51.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.791.811.8257.47%55.82%55.10%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

América Mineiro (Visit)

Prediction 20.79%4.81fair odd
EV -6.44%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -1.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.79%20.79%20.79%20.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.434.504.5023.26%22.56%22.22%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.52%3.63fair odd
EV -5.06%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -2.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.29%27.52%27.52%27.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.393.423.4530.30%29.50%29.20%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Goiás (Local): 51.69%; América Mineiro (Visit): 20.79%; Draw: 27.52%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.63. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.45, with an expected value of -5.06%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.76%EV -5.92%E -3.25%K -7.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -6.44%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.31%EV -5.06%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 06:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.76%EV -5.92%E -3.25%K -7.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -6.44%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.31%EV -5.06%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 06:30
Casumo🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.76%EV -5.92%E -3.25%K -7.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -6.44%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.31%EV -5.06%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 06:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.76%EV -5.92%E -3.25%K -7.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -6.44%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.31%EV -5.06%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 06:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.76%EV -5.92%E -3.25%K -7.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -6.44%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.31%EV -5.06%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 06:30
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.76%EV -5.92%E -3.25%K -7.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -6.44%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.31%EV -5.06%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 06:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.76%EV -5.92%E -3.25%K -7.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -6.44%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.31%EV -5.06%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 06:30
BetRivers🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.69%EV -6.44%E -3.56%K -7.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -6.44%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -6.44%E -1.89%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 06:30
Grosvenor🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%EV -7.99%E -4.49%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -8.52%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.45%EV -7.82%E -2.33%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 06:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.80%EV -8.51%E -4.81%K -11.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -8.52%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -7.82%E -2.33%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-06 06:30
TABtouch🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.60%EV -9.02%E -5.13%K -11.87%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.88%EV -9.56%E -2.20%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -9.19%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-06 06:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.76%EV -10.06%E -5.78%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.95%EV -10.60%E -2.46%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.29%EV -9.19%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-06 06:30
LeoVegas🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.76%EV -10.06%E -5.78%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.95%EV -10.60%E -2.46%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.29%EV -9.19%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-06 06:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.76%EV -10.06%E -5.78%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.95%EV -10.60%E -2.46%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.29%EV -9.19%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-06 06:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.