Language:English
Fortaleza v Athletic Club (MG)
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fortaleza (Local)
Prediction 61.27%1.63fair odd
EV -0.738%
Edge -0.456%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.36%61.05%61.22%62.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.531.521.6269.44%65.32%66.01%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Athletic Club (MG) (Visit)
Prediction 14.16%7.06fair odd
EV +4.09%
Edge +0.556%
Kelly +0.644%
Growth +0.026%
assuming max odds 7.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.74%14.27%14.19%17.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.206.206.387.3519.23%16.13%15.69%13.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.57%4.07fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -0.880%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.93
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.78%24.68%24.58%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.673.653.9329.41%27.27%27.40%25.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fortaleza (Local): 61.27%; Athletic Club (MG) (Visit): 14.16%; Draw: 24.57%. For Athletic Club (MG) (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.06. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.09%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.60%EV -6.25%E -4.09%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 7.35I 13.61%NM 13.03%EV +4.09%E +0.556%K +0.644%G +0.026% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.37%EV -3.46%E -0.880%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-27 21:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.18%EV -8.09%E -5.39%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 7.32I 13.66%NM 12.74%EV +3.66%E +0.501%K +0.580%G +0.021% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.07%EV -8.62%E -2.32%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-27 21:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.35%EV -6.25%E -4.09%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 13.07%EV +3.38%E +0.463%K +0.537%G +0.018% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.59%EV -4.69%E -1.21%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-27 21:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.35%EV -6.25%E -4.09%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 13.07%EV +3.38%E +0.463%K +0.537%G +0.018% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.59%EV -4.69%E -1.21%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-27 21:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.08%EV -6.25%E -4.09%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -0.868%E -0.124%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -4.19%E -1.08%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-27 21:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.15%EV -8.09%E -5.39%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -0.868%E -0.124%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-27 21:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.53%EV -6.87%E -4.52%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.86%EV -4.41%E -0.653%K -0.767%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-27 21:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.28%EV -7.48%E -4.95%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%EV -4.41%E -0.653%K -0.767%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -9.11%E -2.46%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-27 21:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.07%EV -7.48%E -4.95%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -4.41%E -0.653%K -0.767%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.34%E -2.83%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-27 21:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.85%EV -6.25%E -4.09%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -7.95%E -1.22%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -7.88%E -2.10%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-27 21:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.21%EV -6.87%E -4.52%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -7.95%E -1.22%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-27 21:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.36%EV -7.48%E -4.95%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -7.95%E -1.22%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-27 21:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.12%EV -8.09%E -5.39%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -7.95%E -1.22%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -9.11%E -2.46%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-27 21:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.70%EV -8.09%E -5.39%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -7.95%E -1.22%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -11.56%E -3.21%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-27 21:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.70%EV -8.09%E -5.39%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -7.95%E -1.22%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -11.56%E -3.21%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-27 21:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.70%EV -8.09%E -5.39%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -7.95%E -1.22%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -11.56%E -3.21%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-27 21:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.70%EV -8.09%E -5.39%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -7.95%E -1.22%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -11.56%E -3.21%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-27 21:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.70%EV -8.09%E -5.39%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -7.95%E -1.22%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -11.56%E -3.21%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-27 21:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.49%EV -6.87%E -4.52%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -7.95%E -1.22%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -16.48%E -4.85%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-27 21:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.26%EV -8.09%E -5.39%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -7.95%E -1.22%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -14.02%E -4.01%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-27 21:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.32%EV -11.15%E -7.69%K -24.79%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -7.95%E -1.22%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-27 21:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.18%EV -9.93%E -6.75%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -7.95%E -1.22%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.98%EV -11.56%E -3.21%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-27 21:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.67%EV -11.77%E -8.17%K -26.74%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.66%EV -7.95%E -1.22%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -11.56%E -3.21%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-27 21:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.05%EV -6.87%E -4.52%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%EV -11.49%E -1.84%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -5.42%E -1.41%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-27 21:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.89%EV -6.25%E -4.09%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.66%EV -11.49%E -1.84%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.45%EV -11.56%E -3.21%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-27 21:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.90%EV -8.09%E -5.39%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.73%EV -12.20%E -1.97%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -7.88%E -2.10%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-27 21:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.70%EV -8.09%E -5.39%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.69%EV -12.20%E -1.97%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -9.11%E -2.46%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-27 21:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.70%EV -8.09%E -5.39%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.69%EV -12.20%E -1.97%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -9.11%E -2.46%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-27 21:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.61%EV -8.09%E -5.39%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -15.03%E -2.50%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -7.88%E -2.10%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-27 21:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.01%EV -8.09%E -5.39%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.66%EV -18.57%E -3.23%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -9.11%E -2.46%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-27 21:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.01%EV -8.09%E -5.39%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.66%EV -18.57%E -3.23%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -9.11%E -2.46%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-27 21:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.01%EV -8.09%E -5.39%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.66%EV -18.57%E -3.23%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -9.11%E -2.46%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-27 21:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.01%EV -8.09%E -5.39%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.66%EV -18.57%E -3.23%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -9.11%E -2.46%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-27 21:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.70%EV -0.738%E -0.456%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -20.69%E -3.70%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -10.34%E -2.83%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-27 21:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.70%EV -0.738%E -0.456%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -20.69%E -3.70%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -10.34%E -2.83%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-27 21:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.70%EV -0.738%E -0.456%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -20.69%E -3.70%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -10.34%E -2.83%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-27 21:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.70%EV -0.738%E -0.456%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -20.69%E -3.70%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -10.34%E -2.83%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-27 21:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.70%EV -0.738%E -0.456%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -20.69%E -3.70%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -10.34%E -2.83%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-27 21:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.70%EV -0.738%E -0.456%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -20.69%E -3.70%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -10.34%E -2.83%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-27 21:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.70%EV -0.738%E -0.456%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -20.69%E -3.70%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -10.34%E -2.83%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-27 21:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.01%EV -3.80%E -2.42%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.05%EV -25.65%E -4.89%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.94%EV -15.25%E -4.42%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-27 21:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.01%EV -3.80%E -2.42%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.05%EV -25.65%E -4.89%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.94%EV -15.25%E -4.42%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-27 21:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.17%EV -4.41%E -2.83%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.99%EV -25.65%E -4.89%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.85%EV -15.25%E -4.42%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-27 21:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.36%EV -0.738%E -0.456%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.56%EV -26.36%E -5.07%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -14.02%E -4.01%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-27 21:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.07%EV -4.41%E -2.83%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.12%EV -26.36%E -5.07%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.81%EV -15.25%E -4.42%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-27 21:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.23%EV -5.03%E -3.24%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.06%EV -26.36%E -5.07%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.71%EV -15.25%E -4.42%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-27 21:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.30% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.78% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.92% | 0.3% | 2026-09-27 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.10% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.74% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16% | 0.6% | 2026-09-27 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.10% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.74% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16% | 0.6% | 2026-09-27 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.10% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.74% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16% | 0.6% | 2026-09-27 21:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.19% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.93% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.88% | 1.8% | 2026-09-27 21:25 |