Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fortaleza v Athletic Club (MG)

2026-09-27 21:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fortaleza (Local)

Prediction 54.48%1.84fair odd
EV -7.39%
Edge -4.35%
Kelly -10.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.32%54.48%54.48%54.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.681.701.7061.35%59.66%58.82%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Athletic Club (MG) (Visit)

Prediction 19.15%5.22fair odd
EV -4.24%
Edge -0.847%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.69%19.15%19.15%19.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.604.865.005.0021.74%20.59%20.00%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.37%3.79fair odd
EV -6.39%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -2.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.33%26.37%26.37%26.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.483.553.5529.85%28.76%28.17%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Fortaleza (Local): 54.48%; Athletic Club (MG) (Visit): 19.15%; Draw: 26.37%. For Athletic Club (MG) (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.22. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 5.00, with an expected value of -4.24%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.98%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.56%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -4.24%E -0.847%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -6.39%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-16 08:15
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.98%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.56%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -4.24%E -0.847%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -6.39%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-16 08:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.98%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.56%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -4.24%E -0.847%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -6.39%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-16 08:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.98%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.56%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -4.24%E -0.847%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -6.39%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-16 08:15
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.98%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.56%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -4.24%E -0.847%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -6.39%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-16 08:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.98%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.56%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -4.24%E -0.847%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -6.39%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-16 08:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.98%EV -7.39%E -4.35%K -10.56%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -4.24%E -0.847%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -6.39%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-16 08:15
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.48%EV -9.02%E -5.40%K -13.47%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.15%EV -9.02%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.37%EV -9.02%E -2.62%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-16 07:55
Grosvenor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.46%EV -10.11%E -6.13%K -15.56%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.12%EV -9.98%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -10.34%E -3.04%K -4.31%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-16 08:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.46%EV -10.11%E -6.13%K -15.56%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.12%EV -9.98%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -10.34%E -3.04%K -4.31%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-16 08:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.46%EV -10.11%E -6.13%K -15.56%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.12%EV -9.98%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -10.34%E -3.04%K -4.31%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-16 08:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.39%EV -10.66%E -6.50%K -16.65%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.98%EV -9.98%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -11.66%E -3.48%K -4.96%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-16 08:15
TABtouch🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.32%EV -11.20%E -6.87%K -17.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -11.90%E -2.59%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.43%EV -11.66%E -3.48%K -4.96%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-16 08:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.