The School of Odds
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Cuiabá v Sport Recife

Kickoff: 2026-03-20 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cuiabá (Local)

Prediction 43.49%2.30fair odd
EV -6.05%
Edge -2.80%
Kelly -5.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.30%43.49%43.49%43.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.132.162.1648.31%46.98%46.40%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sport Recife (Visit)

Prediction 26.34%3.80fair odd
EV -6.49%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.34%26.34%26.34%26.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.503.553.5529.41%28.60%28.17%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.17%3.32fair odd
EV -4.98%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -2.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.89%30.17%30.17%30.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.093.133.1533.33%32.33%32.00%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cuiabá (Local): 43.49%; Sport Recife (Visit): 26.34%; Draw: 30.17%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.32. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.15, with an expected value of -4.98%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.59%EV -6.05%E -2.80%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -6.49%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 14:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.59%EV -6.05%E -2.80%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -6.49%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 14:05
Casumo🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.59%EV -6.05%E -2.80%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -6.49%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 14:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.59%EV -6.05%E -2.80%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -6.49%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 14:05
betPARX🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.59%EV -6.05%E -2.80%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -6.49%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 14:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.59%EV -6.05%E -2.80%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -6.49%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 14:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.59%EV -6.05%E -2.80%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -6.49%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 14:05
BetRivers🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.49%EV -6.49%E -3.02%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -6.49%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-08 14:04
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.30%EV -7.79%E -3.68%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -9.12%E -2.64%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -8.00%E -2.62%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-08 14:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.53%EV -8.66%E -4.13%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -9.12%E -2.64%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.97%EV -8.00%E -2.62%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-08 14:05
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.53%EV -8.66%E -4.13%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -9.12%E -2.64%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.97%EV -8.00%E -2.62%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-08 14:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.50%EV -9.97%E -4.82%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.44%E -3.07%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -9.50%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-08 14:05
LeoVegas🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.50%EV -9.97%E -4.82%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.44%E -3.07%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -9.50%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-08 14:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.50%EV -9.97%E -4.82%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.44%E -3.07%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -9.50%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-08 14:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.