The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Cuiabá v Ponte Preta

2026-10-03 20:00 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cuiabá (Local)

Prediction 76.09%1.31fair odd
EV -7.93%
Edge -6.56%
Kelly -37.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.09%76.09%76.09%77.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.201.211.2185.47%83.60%82.64%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ponte Preta (Visit)

Prediction 7.61%13.14fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.084%
Kelly -0.091%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.19%7.61%7.61%7.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.0012.5413.0013.008.33%7.98%7.69%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.30%6.13fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -0.362%
Kelly -0.435%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.58%16.30%16.30%16.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.505.806.006.0018.18%17.24%16.67%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Cuiabá (Local): 76.09%; Ponte Preta (Visit): 7.61%; Draw: 16.30%. For Ponte Preta (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.14. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 13.00, with an expected value of -1.09%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.24%EV -7.93%E -6.56%K -37.78%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -1.09%E -0.084%K -0.091%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -2.17%E -0.362%K -0.435%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 09:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.24%EV -7.93%E -6.56%K -37.78%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -1.09%E -0.084%K -0.091%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -2.17%E -0.362%K -0.435%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 09:28
Unibet (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.24%EV -7.93%E -6.56%K -37.78%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -1.09%E -0.084%K -0.091%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -2.17%E -0.362%K -0.435%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 09:28
Casumo🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.24%EV -7.93%E -6.56%K -37.78%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -1.09%E -0.084%K -0.091%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -2.17%E -0.362%K -0.435%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 09:29
betPARX🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.24%EV -7.93%E -6.56%K -37.78%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -1.09%E -0.084%K -0.091%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -2.17%E -0.362%K -0.435%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 09:28
Svenska Spel🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.24%EV -7.93%E -6.56%K -37.78%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -1.09%E -0.084%K -0.091%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -2.17%E -0.362%K -0.435%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 09:29
ATG (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.24%EV -7.93%E -6.56%K -37.78%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -1.09%E -0.084%K -0.091%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -2.17%E -0.362%K -0.435%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 09:29
BetRivers🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -8.70%E -7.25%K -43.48%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.61%EV -8.70%E -0.725%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.30%EV -8.70%E -1.55%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-22 09:59
Grosvenor🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.39%EV -10.22%E -8.66%K -56.76%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.51%EV -8.70%E -0.725%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.10%EV -8.70%E -1.55%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-22 09:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.39%EV -10.22%E -8.66%K -56.76%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.51%EV -8.70%E -0.725%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.10%EV -8.70%E -1.55%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-22 09:28
Virgin Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.39%EV -10.22%E -8.66%K -56.76%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.51%EV -8.70%E -0.725%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.10%EV -8.70%E -1.55%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-22 09:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.32%EV -10.98%E -9.38%K -64.58%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.44%EV -8.70%E -0.725%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.24%EV -10.33%E -1.88%K -2.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-22 09:59
TABtouch🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.32%EV -10.98%E -9.38%K -64.58%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.44%EV -8.70%E -0.725%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.24%EV -10.33%E -1.88%K -2.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-22 09:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.