Language:English
Cuiabá v Ponte Preta
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cuiabá (Local)
Prediction 82.14%1.22fair odd
EV -4.72%
Edge -4.07%
Kelly -29.49%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.56%82.35%82.05%84.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.121.131.1692.59%89.05%88.50%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ponte Preta (Visit)
Prediction 5.49%18.22fair odd
EV +15.28%
Edge +0.728%
Kelly +0.764%
Growth +0.117%
assuming max odds 21.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.38%5.39%5.54%6.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0016.9317.0021.007.69%5.91%5.88%4.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 12.37%8.08fair odd
EV +5.28%
Edge +0.620%
Kelly +0.703%
Growth +0.037%
assuming max odds 8.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.08%12.26%12.41%16.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.757.417.508.5117.39%13.50%13.33%11.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cuiabá (Local): 82.14%; Ponte Preta (Visit): 5.49%; Draw: 12.37%. For Ponte Preta (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 18.22. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 21.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.28%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.15%EV -8.00%E -7.15%K -66.70%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.43%EV +15.28%E +0.728%K +0.764%G +0.117% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -7.22%E -0.962%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.15%EV -8.00%E -7.15%K -66.70%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.43%EV +15.28%E +0.728%K +0.764%G +0.117% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -7.22%E -0.962%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.15%EV -8.00%E -7.15%K -66.70%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.43%EV +15.28%E +0.728%K +0.764%G +0.117% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -7.22%E -0.962%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.15%EV -8.00%E -7.15%K -66.70%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.43%EV +15.28%E +0.728%K +0.764%G +0.117% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -7.22%E -0.962%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-03 19:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.56%EV -4.72%E -4.07%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.39%EV +15.28%E +0.728%K +0.764%G +0.117% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.05%EV -28.87%E -5.02%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.40%EV -10.47%E -9.60%K -116.31%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%EV +15.28%E +0.728%K +0.764%G +0.117% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.22%EV +1.44%E +0.176%K +0.201%G +0.003% | 8.7% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.73%EV -8.83%E -7.95%K -80.23%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.65%EV +9.79%E +0.490%K +0.515%G +0.050% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -1.03%E -0.129%K -0.147%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-03 19:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.71%EV -7.18%E -6.36%K -55.25%G +0.000% | 19.10I 5.24%NM 4.89%EV +4.85%E +0.254%K +0.268%G +0.013% | 7.54I 13.26%NM 12.40%EV -6.72%E -0.891%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.82%EV -8.83%E -7.95%K -80.23%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.90%EV +4.30%E +0.226%K +0.239%G +0.010% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.28%EV +2.06%E +0.250%K +0.285%G +0.006% | 7.5% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.67%EV -7.18%E -6.36%K -55.25%G +0.000% | 18.10I 5.52%NM 5.22%EV -0.639%E -0.035%K -0.037%G +0.000% | 8.51I 11.75%NM 11.11%EV +5.28%E +0.620%K +0.703%G +0.037% | 5.8% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.28%EV -6.36%E -5.58%K -45.44%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -1.19%E -0.066%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV -7.22%E -0.962%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-30 20:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.28%EV -6.36%E -5.58%K -45.44%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -1.19%E -0.066%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV -7.22%E -0.962%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-30 20:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.28%EV -6.36%E -5.58%K -45.44%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -1.19%E -0.066%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV -7.22%E -0.962%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-30 20:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.28%EV -6.36%E -5.58%K -45.44%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -1.19%E -0.066%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV -7.22%E -0.962%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-30 20:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.28%EV -6.36%E -5.58%K -45.44%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -1.19%E -0.066%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV -7.22%E -0.962%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-30 20:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.28%EV -6.36%E -5.58%K -45.44%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -1.19%E -0.066%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV -7.22%E -0.962%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-30 20:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.28%EV -6.36%E -5.58%K -45.44%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -1.19%E -0.066%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV -7.22%E -0.962%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-30 20:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.41%EV -7.18%E -6.36%K -55.25%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.17%EV -1.19%E -0.066%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -7.22%E -0.962%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-03 19:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.55%EV -6.36%E -5.58%K -45.44%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.17%EV -1.19%E -0.066%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.28%EV -13.40%E -1.91%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-03 17:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.37%EV -7.18%E -6.36%K -55.25%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.54%EV -6.68%E -0.393%K -0.417%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.08%EV +5.16%E +0.607%K +0.687%G +0.035% | 6.1% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.37%EV -7.18%E -6.36%K -55.25%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.54%EV -6.68%E -0.393%K -0.417%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.08%EV +5.16%E +0.607%K +0.687%G +0.035% | 6.1% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 81.84%EV -9.65%E -8.77%K -96.47%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.30%EV -6.68%E -0.393%K -0.417%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -13.40%E -1.91%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-03 19:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 81.84%EV -9.65%E -8.77%K -96.47%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.30%EV -6.68%E -0.393%K -0.417%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -13.40%E -1.91%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-03 19:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 82.81%EV -11.29%E -10.45%K -141.12%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.26%EV -6.68%E -0.393%K -0.417%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -7.22%E -0.962%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 82.81%EV -11.29%E -10.45%K -141.12%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.26%EV -6.68%E -0.393%K -0.417%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -7.22%E -0.962%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.75%EV -6.36%E -5.58%K -45.44%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV -12.17%E -0.760%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -7.22%E -0.962%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.17%EV -7.18%E -6.36%K -55.25%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.73%EV -12.17%E -0.760%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -13.40%E -1.91%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-30 20:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.17%EV -7.18%E -6.36%K -55.25%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.73%EV -12.17%E -0.760%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -13.40%E -1.91%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-03 17:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.17%EV -7.18%E -6.36%K -55.25%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.73%EV -12.17%E -0.760%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -13.40%E -1.91%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-03 17:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.17%EV -7.18%E -6.36%K -55.25%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.73%EV -12.17%E -0.760%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -13.40%E -1.91%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.17%EV -7.18%E -6.36%K -55.25%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.73%EV -12.17%E -0.760%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -13.40%E -1.91%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-03 17:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.72%EV -8.00%E -7.15%K -66.70%G +0.000% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 5.98%EV -14.91%E -0.962%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.30%EV +1.44%E +0.176%K +0.201%G +0.003% | 7.9% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.72%EV -8.00%E -7.15%K -66.70%G +0.000% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 5.98%EV -14.91%E -0.962%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.30%EV +1.44%E +0.176%K +0.201%G +0.003% | 7.9% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.72%EV -8.00%E -7.15%K -66.70%G +0.000% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 5.98%EV -14.91%E -0.962%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.30%EV +1.44%E +0.176%K +0.201%G +0.003% | 7.9% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -7.18%E -6.36%K -55.25%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV -17.66%E -1.18%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -7.22%E -0.962%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.02%EV -8.00%E -7.15%K -66.70%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.12%EV -17.66%E -1.18%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.85%EV -4.12%E -0.532%K -0.611%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-03 19:32 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 80.99%EV -8.00%E -7.15%K -66.70%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%EV -17.66%E -1.18%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -13.40%E -1.91%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-03 17:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.13%EV -8.83%E -7.95%K -80.23%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.00%EV -17.66%E -1.18%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.87%EV -13.40%E -1.91%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-30 18:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.13%EV -8.83%E -7.95%K -80.23%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.00%EV -17.66%E -1.18%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.87%EV -13.40%E -1.91%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-30 18:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.13%EV -8.83%E -7.95%K -80.23%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.00%EV -17.66%E -1.18%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.87%EV -13.40%E -1.91%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-30 18:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.13%EV -8.83%E -7.95%K -80.23%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.00%EV -17.66%E -1.18%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.87%EV -13.40%E -1.91%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-30 18:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 80.19%EV -8.00%E -7.15%K -66.70%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.99%EV -17.66%E -1.18%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.82%EV -19.59%E -3.01%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 81.27%EV -9.65%E -8.77%K -96.47%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV -17.66%E -1.18%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -13.40%E -1.91%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-30 20:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.11%EV -7.18%E -6.36%K -55.25%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV -28.64%E -2.20%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -13.40%E -1.91%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-03 17:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.11%EV -7.18%E -6.36%K -55.25%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV -28.64%E -2.20%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -13.40%E -1.91%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-03 17:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.11%EV -7.18%E -6.36%K -55.25%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV -28.64%E -2.20%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -13.40%E -1.91%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-03 17:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.11%EV -7.18%E -6.36%K -55.25%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV -28.64%E -2.20%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -13.40%E -1.91%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-03 17:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.74% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.68% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.58% | 0.5% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.42% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.77% | 0.9% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.42% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.77% | 0.9% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 85.59% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.94% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.47% | 1.6% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.79% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.28% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.93% | 1.7% | 2026-10-03 19:55 |