Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Criciuma v Ponte Preta

2026-10-30 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Criciuma (Local)

Prediction 87.80%1.14fair odd
EV -5.18%
Edge -4.79%
Kelly -64.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.15%87.57%87.75%88.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.061.061.0896.15%94.64%94.34%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ponte Preta (Visit)

Prediction 3.44%29.09fair odd
EV +16.89%
Edge +0.497%
Kelly +0.512%
Growth +0.086%

assuming max odds 34.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.76%3.60%3.57%5.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
17.0026.8526.7734.005.88%3.72%3.74%2.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 8.76%11.41fair odd
EV +5.59%
Edge +0.464%
Kelly +0.506%
Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 12.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.87%8.83%8.68%11.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.0010.5411.0012.0512.50%9.49%9.09%8.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Criciuma (Local): 87.80%; Ponte Preta (Visit): 3.44%; Draw: 8.76%. For Ponte Preta (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 29.09. 7 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 34.00, producing a positive expected value of +16.89%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.59%EV -6.05%E -5.66%K -86.50%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.79%EV +16.89%E +0.497%K +0.512%G +0.086%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.62%EV -3.61%E -0.328%K -0.361%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-24 22:44
888sport🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.69%EV -6.93%E -6.54%K -115.54%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.76%EV +16.89%E +0.497%K +0.512%G +0.086%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.55%EV -3.61%E -0.328%K -0.361%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-24 22:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.69%EV -6.93%E -6.54%K -115.54%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.76%EV +16.89%E +0.497%K +0.512%G +0.086%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.55%EV -3.61%E -0.328%K -0.361%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-24 22:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.69%EV -6.93%E -6.54%K -115.54%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.76%EV +16.89%E +0.497%K +0.512%G +0.086%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.55%EV -3.61%E -0.328%K -0.361%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-24 22:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.81%EV -6.93%E -6.54%K -115.54%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV +6.58%E +0.212%K +0.219%G +0.014%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -21.14%E -2.35%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 22:54
1xBet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.88%EV -8.69%E -8.35%K -217.22%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.08%EV +3.14%E +0.105%K +0.108%G +0.003%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV +0.769%E +0.067%K +0.073%G +0.001%8.2%2026-10-24 22:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.88%EV -8.69%E -8.35%K -217.22%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.08%EV +3.14%E +0.105%K +0.108%G +0.003%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV +0.769%E +0.067%K +0.073%G +0.001%8.2%2026-10-24 22:19
Pinnacle🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.59%EV -6.05%E -5.66%K -86.50%G +0.000%26.77I 3.74%NM 3.54%EV -7.96%E -0.297%K -0.309%G +0.000%12.05I 8.30%NM 7.87%EV +5.59%E +0.464%K +0.506%G +0.028%5.5%2026-10-24 23:55
Coolbet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.87%EV -5.18%E -4.79%K -64.71%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%EV -14.05%E -0.562%K -0.585%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -12.37%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 22:35
NordicBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.05%EV -7.81%E -7.44%K -156.21%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.81%EV -17.49%E -0.729%K -0.760%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -12.37%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 23:20
Betsson🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.05%EV -7.81%E -7.44%K -156.21%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.81%EV -17.49%E -0.729%K -0.760%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -12.37%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 23:20
LeoVegas🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.63%EV -7.81%E -7.44%K -156.21%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.00%EV -20.92%E -0.910%K -0.951%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -3.61%E -0.328%K -0.361%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 23:20
betfred_uk🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.15%EV -6.93%E -6.54%K -115.54%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.69%EV -34.68%E -1.83%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.15%EV -29.90%E -3.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-24 23:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 86.08%EV -7.81%E -7.44%K -156.21%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.32%EV -41.55%E -2.44%K -2.60%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.61%EV -7.99%E -0.761%K -0.841%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-25 00:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 86.08%EV -7.81%E -7.44%K -156.21%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.32%EV -41.55%E -2.44%K -2.60%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.61%EV -7.99%E -0.761%K -0.841%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-25 00:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.03I 97.09%NM 83.22%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.20%7.40I 13.51%NM 11.58%16.7%2026-10-24 23:20