The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Criciuma v Ponte Preta

Kickoff: 2026-10-30 22:32 UTC

Final: Criciuma 2–0 Ponte Preta

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Criciuma (Local)

Prediction 85.91%1.16fair odd
EV -4.64%
Edge -4.18%
Kelly -42.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.14%86.04%85.76%88.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.081.081.1199.01%92.77%92.59%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ponte Preta (Visit)

Prediction 4.32%23.15fair odd
EV +20.49%
Edge +0.735%
Kelly +0.762%
Growth +0.156%

assuming max odds 27.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.46%4.30%4.37%6.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0021.3321.0027.896.67%4.69%4.76%3.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.77%10.24fair odd
EV +18.02%
Edge +1.49%
Kelly +1.63%
Growth +0.293%

assuming max odds 12.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.95%9.66%9.86%11.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.659.5012.0812.50%10.36%10.53%8.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Criciuma (Local): 85.91%; Ponte Preta (Visit): 4.32%; Draw: 9.77%. For Ponte Preta (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.15. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 27.89, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 88.55%EV -6.36%E -5.83%K -70.65%G +0.000%27.89I 3.59%NM 3.46%EV +20.49%E +0.735%K +0.762%G +0.156%12.08I 8.28%NM 7.99%EV +18.02%E +1.49%K +1.63%G +0.293%3.6%2026-10-30 22:25
BetUS🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 88.55%EV -6.36%E -5.83%K -70.65%G +0.000%27.89I 3.59%NM 3.46%EV +20.49%E +0.735%K +0.762%G +0.156%12.08I 8.28%NM 7.99%EV +18.02%E +1.49%K +1.63%G +0.293%3.6%2026-10-30 22:15
Betway🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.51%EV -6.36%E -5.83%K -70.65%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.54%EV -9.28%E -0.442%K -0.464%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.95%EV +17.24%E +1.44%K +1.57%G +0.270%4.8%2026-10-30 21:30
DraftKings🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.99%EV -7.22%E -6.68%K -90.22%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV -9.28%E -0.442%K -0.464%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +7.47%E +0.679%K +0.747%G +0.056%6.4%2026-10-30 21:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.87%EV -6.36%E -5.83%K -70.65%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV -0.638%E -0.028%K -0.029%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.02%EV +2.59%E +0.246%K +0.272%G +0.007%5.6%2026-10-30 22:15
Unibet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.87%EV -6.36%E -5.83%K -70.65%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV -0.638%E -0.028%K -0.029%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.02%EV +2.59%E +0.246%K +0.272%G +0.007%5.6%2026-10-30 22:15
Casumo🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.87%EV -6.36%E -5.83%K -70.65%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV -0.638%E -0.028%K -0.029%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.02%EV +2.59%E +0.246%K +0.272%G +0.007%5.6%2026-10-30 22:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.87%EV -6.36%E -5.83%K -70.65%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV -0.638%E -0.028%K -0.029%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.02%EV +2.59%E +0.246%K +0.272%G +0.007%5.6%2026-10-30 22:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.87%EV -6.36%E -5.83%K -70.65%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV -0.638%E -0.028%K -0.029%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.02%EV +2.59%E +0.246%K +0.272%G +0.007%5.6%2026-10-30 22:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.87%EV -6.36%E -5.83%K -70.65%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV -0.638%E -0.028%K -0.029%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.02%EV +2.59%E +0.246%K +0.272%G +0.007%5.6%2026-10-30 22:15
betPARX🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.87%EV -6.36%E -5.83%K -70.65%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV -0.638%E -0.028%K -0.029%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.02%EV +2.59%E +0.246%K +0.272%G +0.007%5.6%2026-10-30 22:15
FanDuel🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.38%EV -7.22%E -6.68%K -90.22%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.63%EV +12.32%E +0.474%K +0.493%G +0.061%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.99%EV +2.59%E +0.246%K +0.272%G +0.007%6.0%2026-10-30 22:24
SportsBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.38%EV -7.22%E -6.68%K -90.22%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.63%EV +12.32%E +0.474%K +0.493%G +0.061%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.99%EV +2.59%E +0.246%K +0.272%G +0.007%6.0%2026-10-30 22:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.34%EV -8.08%E -7.55%K -115.38%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.86%EV -17.92%E -0.943%K -0.995%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.80%EV +2.59%E +0.246%K +0.272%G +0.007%8.2%2026-10-30 21:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.34%EV -8.08%E -7.55%K -115.38%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.86%EV -17.92%E -0.943%K -0.995%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.80%EV +2.59%E +0.246%K +0.272%G +0.007%8.2%2026-10-30 21:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 87.71%EV -13.23%E -13.10%K -1323.11%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.85%EV -0.638%E -0.028%K -0.029%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.44%EV +2.59%E +0.246%K +0.272%G +0.007%12.9%2026-10-30 15:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.50%EV -9.79%E -9.33%K -195.89%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%EV +12.32%E +0.474%K +0.493%G +0.061%10.25I 9.76%NM 8.96%EV +0.144%E +0.014%K +0.016%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-30 21:05
PlayUp🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.69%EV -8.08%E -7.55%K -115.38%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.03%EV -0.638%E -0.028%K -0.029%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.28%EV -2.30%E -0.230%K -0.255%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-30 22:25
Bovada🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.36%EV -7.22%E -6.68%K -90.22%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV -26.56%E -1.56%K -1.66%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -2.30%E -0.230%K -0.255%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-30 15:59
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.47%EV -8.94%E -8.43%K -148.93%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.36%EV -9.28%E -0.442%K -0.464%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -2.30%E -0.230%K -0.255%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-30 22:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.47%EV -8.94%E -8.43%K -148.93%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.36%EV -9.28%E -0.442%K -0.464%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -2.30%E -0.230%K -0.255%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-30 22:25
1xBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.05%EV -5.50%E -5.00%K -54.99%G +0.000%18.20I 5.49%NM 5.14%EV -21.37%E -1.17%K -1.24%G +0.000%9.54I 10.48%NM 9.81%EV -6.79%E -0.712%K -0.795%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-30 22:20
BetRivers🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.94%EV -8.08%E -7.55%K -115.38%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%EV -9.28%E -0.442%K -0.464%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -7.18%E -0.756%K -0.845%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-30 22:15
BoyleSports🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.94%EV -8.08%E -7.55%K -115.38%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%EV -9.28%E -0.442%K -0.464%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -7.18%E -0.756%K -0.845%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-30 15:59
Grosvenor🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 86.17%EV -9.79%E -9.33%K -195.89%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.31%EV -9.28%E -0.442%K -0.464%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -7.18%E -0.756%K -0.845%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-30 22:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 86.17%EV -9.79%E -9.33%K -195.89%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.31%EV -9.28%E -0.442%K -0.464%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -7.18%E -0.756%K -0.845%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-30 22:15
TABtouch🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 86.28%EV -10.65%E -10.24%K -266.35%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.27%EV -9.28%E -0.442%K -0.464%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.45%EV -7.18%E -0.756%K -0.845%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-30 22:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 86.28%EV -10.65%E -10.24%K -266.35%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.27%EV -9.28%E -0.442%K -0.464%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.45%EV -7.18%E -0.756%K -0.845%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-30 22:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 86.40%EV -11.51%E -11.18%K -383.76%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.24%EV -9.28%E -0.442%K -0.464%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.37%EV -7.18%E -0.756%K -0.845%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-30 22:15
BetMGM🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.23%EV -4.64%E -4.18%K -42.18%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.67%EV -28.72%E -1.74%K -1.85%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.11%EV -9.63%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-30 22:25
888sport🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.87%EV -5.50%E -5.00%K -54.99%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.63%EV +12.32%E +0.474%K +0.493%G +0.061%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.50%EV -12.07%E -1.34%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-30 21:30
William Hill🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.87%EV -5.50%E -5.00%K -54.99%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.63%EV +12.32%E +0.474%K +0.493%G +0.061%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.50%EV -12.07%E -1.34%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-30 21:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.87%EV -5.50%E -5.00%K -54.99%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.63%EV +12.32%E +0.474%K +0.493%G +0.061%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.50%EV -12.07%E -1.34%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-30 21:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.87%EV -5.50%E -5.00%K -54.99%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.63%EV +12.32%E +0.474%K +0.493%G +0.061%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.50%EV -12.07%E -1.34%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-30 21:30
Coolbet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.50%EV -6.36%E -5.83%K -70.65%G +0.000%22.50I 4.44%NM 4.14%EV -2.80%E -0.124%K -0.130%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -12.07%E -1.34%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-30 22:10
LeoVegas🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.37%EV -6.36%E -5.83%K -70.65%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.41%EV -26.56%E -1.56%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -12.07%E -1.34%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-30 22:25
theScore Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.60%EV -8.94%E -8.43%K -148.93%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.32%EV -9.28%E -0.442%K -0.464%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.08%EV -12.07%E -1.34%K -1.51%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-30 21:40
NordicBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.78%EV -7.22%E -6.68%K -90.22%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.58%EV -13.60%E -0.680%K -0.716%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.65%EV -15.98%E -1.86%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-30 22:25
Betsson🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.78%EV -7.22%E -6.68%K -90.22%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.58%EV -13.60%E -0.680%K -0.716%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.65%EV -15.98%E -1.86%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-30 22:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.94%EV -5.50%E -5.00%K -54.99%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV -0.638%E -0.028%K -0.029%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -16.95%E -1.99%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-30 22:25
Coral🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -5.50%E -5.00%K -54.99%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -35.20%E -2.35%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -16.95%E -1.99%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-30 22:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -5.50%E -5.00%K -54.99%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -35.20%E -2.35%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -16.95%E -1.99%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-30 22:25
Neds🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -5.50%E -5.00%K -54.99%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -35.20%E -2.35%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -16.95%E -1.99%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-30 22:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -5.50%E -5.00%K -54.99%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -35.20%E -2.35%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -16.95%E -1.99%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-30 22:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.47%EV -7.22%E -6.68%K -90.22%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%EV -17.92%E -0.943%K -0.995%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -16.95%E -1.99%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-30 22:10
Bet Victor🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.91%EV -8.94%E -8.43%K -148.93%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%EV -13.60%E -0.680%K -0.716%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.59%EV -16.95%E -1.99%K -2.26%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-30 21:14
Codere (IT)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.56%EV -7.22%E -6.68%K -90.22%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.57%EV -13.60%E -0.680%K -0.716%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.87%EV -17.93%E -2.13%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-30 22:20
betano_uk🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.35%EV -8.94%E -8.43%K -148.93%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.47%EV -13.60%E -0.680%K -0.716%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.18%EV -21.84%E -2.73%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-30 22:25
betfred_uk🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 83.56%EV -8.08%E -7.55%K -115.38%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.26%EV -26.56%E -1.56%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.18%EV -21.84%E -2.73%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-30 16:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.11I 90.09%NM 89.17%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.91%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%1.0%2026-10-30 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.11I 90.09%NM 89.17%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.91%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%1.0%2026-10-30 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.11I 90.09%NM 89.17%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.91%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%1.0%2026-10-30 22:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.11I 90.09%NM 89.17%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.91%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%1.0%2026-10-30 22:25
Smarkets◎1.10I 90.91%NM 88.92%30.03I 3.33%NM 3.26%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.82%2.2%2026-10-30 22:25