The School of Odds
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Criciuma v Operario PR

2026-09-21 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Criciuma (Local)

Prediction 50.66%1.97fair odd
EV -7.80%
Edge -4.29%
Kelly -9.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.60%50.66%50.66%51.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.801.821.8257.14%55.65%54.95%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Operario PR (Visit)

Prediction 21.71%4.61fair odd
EV -5.56%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -1.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.42%21.71%21.71%21.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.244.354.3524.39%23.57%22.99%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.63%3.62fair odd
EV -6.05%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -2.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.40%27.63%27.63%27.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.333.403.4031.25%30.02%29.41%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Criciuma (Local): 50.66%; Operario PR (Visit): 21.71%; Draw: 27.63%. For Operario PR (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.61. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.35, with an expected value of -5.56%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.19%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -5.56%E -1.28%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.05%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-14 23:30
Casumo🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.19%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -5.56%E -1.28%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.05%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-14 23:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.19%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -5.56%E -1.28%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.05%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-14 23:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.19%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -5.56%E -1.28%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.05%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-14 23:30
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.19%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -5.56%E -1.28%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.05%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-14 23:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.19%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -5.56%E -1.28%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.05%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-14 23:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.19%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -5.56%E -1.28%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.05%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-14 23:30
BetRivers🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -8.82%E -2.10%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-14 23:30
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.60%EV -10.34%E -5.84%K -13.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.84%EV -10.99%E -2.68%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-14 23:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.60%EV -10.34%E -5.84%K -13.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.84%EV -10.99%E -2.68%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-14 23:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.60%EV -10.34%E -5.84%K -13.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.84%EV -10.99%E -2.68%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-14 23:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.74%EV -10.84%E -6.16%K -14.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -10.99%E -2.68%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-14 23:30
TABtouch🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.67%EV -11.35%E -6.48%K -15.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.63%EV -10.99%E -2.68%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.71%EV -11.58%E -3.62%K -5.26%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-14 23:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.