Language:English
Criciuma v América Mineiro
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Criciuma (Local)
Prediction 72.08%1.39fair odd
EV -4.14%
Edge -3.11%
Kelly -12.53%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.20%72.33%71.99%75.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.291.291.3383.33%77.81%77.52%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
América Mineiro (Visit)
Prediction 9.29%10.76fair odd
EV +24.91%
Edge +1.85%
Kelly +2.00%
Growth +0.499%
assuming max odds 13.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.15%9.21%9.29%11.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.519.1013.4412.50%10.51%10.99%7.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 18.63%5.37fair odd
EV +3.75%
Edge +0.674%
Kelly +0.821%
Growth +0.031%
assuming max odds 5.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.95%18.46%18.73%20.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.914.905.5722.73%20.38%20.41%17.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Criciuma (Local): 72.08%; América Mineiro (Visit): 9.29%; Draw: 18.63%. For América Mineiro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.76. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.44, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.91%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.61%EV -8.46%E -6.66%K -31.33%G +0.000% | 13.44I 7.44%NM 7.15%EV +24.91%E +1.85%K +2.00%G +0.499% | 5.57I 17.95%NM 17.24%EV +3.75%E +0.674%K +0.821%G +0.031% | 4.1% | 2026-10-12 22:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.14%EV -13.51%E -11.25%K -67.53%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.51%EV +11.53%E +0.960%K +1.05%G +0.121% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.34%EV -3.14%E -0.603%K -0.747%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-12 22:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.62%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.61%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.11%EV +6.88%E +0.598%K +0.655%G +0.045% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV +0.587%E +0.109%K +0.133%G +0.001% | 7.2% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.37%EV -7.02%E -5.44%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV +2.23%E +0.203%K +0.223%G +0.005% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -2.21%E -0.420%K -0.519%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-12 22:03 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.61%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +2.23%E +0.203%K +0.223%G +0.005% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV +2.45%E +0.445%K +0.544%G +0.013% | 7.3% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.34%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.61%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.45%EV +2.23%E +0.203%K +0.223%G +0.005% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.21%EV +0.587%E +0.109%K +0.133%G +0.001% | 7.6% | 2026-10-12 22:03 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.32%EV -8.46%E -6.66%K -31.33%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV +2.23%E +0.203%K +0.223%G +0.005% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.33%EV -11.52%E -2.43%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-12 22:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.88%EV -10.62%E -8.57%K -44.26%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV +2.23%E +0.203%K +0.223%G +0.005% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 17.79%EV -4.07%E -0.790%K -0.981%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-12 22:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -8.46%E -6.66%K -31.33%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -2.42%E -0.230%K -0.254%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV -8.73%E -1.78%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.52%EV -12.06%E -9.89%K -54.83%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.54%EV -2.42%E -0.230%K -0.254%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-12 22:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.93%EV -4.86%E -3.68%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV -7.06%E -0.706%K -0.785%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.71%EV -11.52%E -2.43%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.70%EV -7.74%E -6.05%K -27.64%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.18%EV -7.06%E -0.706%K -0.785%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.12%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-12 20:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.15%EV -6.30%E -4.84%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -7.06%E -0.706%K -0.785%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -18.04%E -4.10%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.04%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.61%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.00%EV -7.06%E -0.706%K -0.785%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -11.52%E -2.43%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.04%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.61%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.00%EV -7.06%E -0.706%K -0.785%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -11.52%E -2.43%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.04%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.61%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.00%EV -7.06%E -0.706%K -0.785%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -11.52%E -2.43%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.21%EV -12.06%E -9.89%K -54.83%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -7.06%E -0.706%K -0.785%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.13%EV -8.46%E -6.66%K -31.33%G +0.000% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.67%EV -10.78%E -1.12%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.20%EV +0.587%E +0.109%K +0.133%G +0.001% | 7.7% | 2026-10-12 22:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.13%EV -8.46%E -6.66%K -31.33%G +0.000% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.67%EV -10.78%E -1.12%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.20%EV +0.587%E +0.109%K +0.133%G +0.001% | 7.7% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -6.30%E -4.84%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -11.71%E -1.23%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.05%EV -7.02%E -5.44%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -11.71%E -1.23%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -11.52%E -2.43%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-12 20:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.12%EV -7.02%E -5.44%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 9.76%EV -12.64%E -1.34%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.11%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.12%EV -7.02%E -5.44%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 9.76%EV -12.64%E -1.34%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.11%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.97%EV -7.02%E -5.44%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 9.95%EV -14.50%E -1.58%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -4.14%E -3.11%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -16.36%E -1.82%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13%EV -8.73%E -1.78%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -4.14%E -3.11%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -16.36%E -1.82%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13%EV -8.73%E -1.78%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 22:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -4.14%E -3.11%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -16.36%E -1.82%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13%EV -8.73%E -1.78%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 22:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -4.14%E -3.11%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -16.36%E -1.82%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13%EV -8.73%E -1.78%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -4.14%E -3.11%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -16.36%E -1.82%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13%EV -8.73%E -1.78%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -4.14%E -3.11%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -16.36%E -1.82%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13%EV -8.73%E -1.78%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -4.14%E -3.11%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -16.36%E -1.82%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13%EV -8.73%E -1.78%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.05%EV -5.58%E -4.26%K -17.99%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.34%EV -16.36%E -1.82%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-12 22:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -6.30%E -4.84%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -16.36%E -1.82%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-12 22:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -6.30%E -4.84%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -16.36%E -1.82%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -6.30%E -4.84%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -16.36%E -1.82%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -6.30%E -4.84%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -16.36%E -1.82%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -6.30%E -4.84%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -16.36%E -1.82%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-12 22:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -7.02%E -5.44%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.02%EV -16.36%E -1.82%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.05%EV -16.18%E -3.59%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-12 22:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.63%EV -4.86%E -3.68%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -21.00%E -2.47%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.56%EV -12.45%E -2.65%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.40%EV -7.02%E -5.44%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.68%EV -21.00%E -2.47%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-12 22:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.40%EV -7.02%E -5.44%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.68%EV -21.00%E -2.47%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-12 22:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.20%EV -6.30%E -4.84%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.24%EV -25.65%E -3.21%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -14.31%E -3.11%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-12 22:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.20%EV -6.30%E -4.84%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.24%EV -25.65%E -3.21%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -14.31%E -3.11%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-12 22:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.36%EV -7.02%E -5.44%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.18%EV -25.65%E -3.21%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -14.31%E -3.11%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-12 22:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.36%EV -7.02%E -5.44%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.18%EV -25.65%E -3.21%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -14.31%E -3.11%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-12 22:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 69.53%EV -7.74%E -6.05%K -27.64%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.12%EV -25.65%E -3.21%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.35%EV -14.31%E -3.11%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-10-12 22:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 69.53%EV -7.74%E -6.05%K -27.64%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.12%EV -25.65%E -3.21%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.35%EV -14.31%E -3.11%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-10-12 22:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 69.57%EV -9.18%E -7.29%K -35.31%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 10.96%EV -25.65%E -3.21%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.48%EV -16.18%E -3.59%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-10-12 22:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.81% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.36% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.83% | 0.7% | 2026-10-12 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.81% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.36% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.83% | 0.7% | 2026-10-12 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.81% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.36% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.83% | 0.7% | 2026-10-12 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.81% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.36% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.83% | 0.7% | 2026-10-12 22:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.09% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.27% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.64% | 1.9% | 2026-10-12 22:20 |