The School of Odds
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Ceará v Juventude

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 19:30 UTC

Final: Ceará 2–2 Juventude

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ceará (Local)

Prediction 33.30%3.00fair odd
EV -2.09%
Edge -0.709%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.83%33.20%33.30%34.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.742.752.9439.22%36.45%36.36%34.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Juventude (Visit)

Prediction 35.61%2.81fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.36%35.75%35.59%38.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.602.622.7143.48%38.41%38.17%36.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.09%3.22fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.27%31.05%31.11%32.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.952.953.1035.71%33.92%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ceará (Local): 33.30%; Juventude (Visit): 35.61%; Draw: 31.09%. For Ceará (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.00. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.94, with an expected value of -2.09%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 31.80%EV -2.09%E -0.709%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.85%EV -12.05%E -4.88%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.35%EV -4.25%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 19:25
Pinnacle🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 33.13%EV -3.08%E -1.06%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.57%EV -3.50%E -1.29%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.30%EV -4.25%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-17 19:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -3.42%E -1.18%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.87%EV -18.10%E -7.87%K -13.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.30%EV -8.29%E -2.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 19:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.74%EV -4.08%E -1.42%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.19%EV -4.57%E -1.71%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.07%EV -8.60%E -2.93%K -4.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-17 19:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.74%EV -4.08%E -1.42%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.19%EV -4.57%E -1.71%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.07%EV -8.60%E -2.93%K -4.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-17 19:25
BetUS🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.74%EV -4.08%E -1.42%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.19%EV -4.57%E -1.71%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.07%EV -8.60%E -2.93%K -4.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-17 19:25
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -5.08%E -1.78%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -9.20%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -3.63%E -1.17%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-17 19:04
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -6.75%E -2.41%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.70%EV -5.64%E -2.13%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -3.63%E -1.17%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 19:14
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -6.75%E -2.41%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -6.71%E -2.56%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -6.74%E -2.25%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 19:25
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -6.75%E -2.41%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -5.64%E -2.13%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -8.29%E -2.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 19:15
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -6.75%E -2.41%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -5.64%E -2.13%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -8.29%E -2.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 19:15
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -6.75%E -2.41%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.77%EV -8.13%E -3.15%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.28%EV -8.29%E -2.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-17 19:21
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -6.75%E -2.41%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -10.98%E -4.39%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.74%E -2.25%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 19:05
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -6.75%E -2.41%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -10.98%E -4.39%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.74%E -2.25%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 19:05
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.41%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.74%EV -7.42%E -2.85%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -5.18%E -1.70%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-17 19:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -8.41%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -7.42%E -2.85%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -6.74%E -2.25%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-17 19:15
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.41%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -6.71%E -2.56%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -10.47%E -3.63%K -5.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 19:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.41%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -6.71%E -2.56%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -10.47%E -3.63%K -5.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 19:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.41%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -6.71%E -2.56%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -10.47%E -3.63%K -5.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 19:15
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.41%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -6.71%E -2.56%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -10.47%E -3.63%K -5.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 19:15
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -8.41%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -10.98%E -4.39%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -9.84%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-17 19:25
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -8.41%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -10.98%E -4.39%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -10.47%E -3.63%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 19:05
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -8.41%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -10.98%E -4.39%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -10.47%E -3.63%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 19:25
betano_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -8.41%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -10.98%E -4.39%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -10.47%E -3.63%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 19:24
Betsson🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.78%EV -9.41%E -3.46%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.07%EV -6.71%E -2.56%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.15%EV -8.29%E -2.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-17 19:15
NordicBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.78%EV -9.41%E -3.46%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.07%EV -6.71%E -2.56%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.15%EV -8.29%E -2.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-17 19:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 33.96%EV -9.75%E -3.60%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.73%EV -5.64%E -2.13%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.31%EV -8.60%E -2.93%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 19:15
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -10.08%E -3.73%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -3.86%E -1.43%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.74%E -2.25%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 18:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -10.08%E -3.73%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -3.86%E -1.43%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.74%E -2.25%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 18:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -10.08%E -3.73%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -3.86%E -1.43%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.74%E -2.25%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 18:50
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -10.08%E -3.73%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -3.86%E -1.43%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.74%E -2.25%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 18:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -10.08%E -3.73%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -3.86%E -1.43%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.74%E -2.25%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 18:50
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -10.08%E -3.73%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -3.86%E -1.43%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.74%E -2.25%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 18:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -10.08%E -3.73%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -3.86%E -1.43%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.74%E -2.25%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 18:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -10.08%E -3.73%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -7.42%E -2.85%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -6.74%E -2.25%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-17 19:15
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.60%EV -10.08%E -3.73%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.89%EV -7.42%E -2.85%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.50%EV -10.47%E -3.63%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-17 19:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.60%EV -10.08%E -3.73%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.89%EV -7.42%E -2.85%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.50%EV -10.47%E -3.63%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-17 19:20
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -10.08%E -3.73%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -10.98%E -4.39%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -12.95%E -4.63%K -7.20%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-17 19:05
BetRivers🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.67%EV -12.41%E -4.72%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.41%EV -5.64%E -2.13%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -8.29%E -2.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-17 18:50
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -13.41%E -5.16%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -7.42%E -2.85%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.10%EV -10.47%E -3.63%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 18:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -13.41%E -5.16%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -7.42%E -2.85%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.10%EV -10.47%E -3.63%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -13.41%E -5.16%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -7.42%E -2.85%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.10%EV -10.47%E -3.63%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 18:50
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.55%EV -15.07%E -5.91%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.55%EV -9.20%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.91%EV -11.40%E -4.00%K -6.16%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-17 18:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.36%EV -15.07%E -5.91%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.36%EV -9.20%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.29%EV -12.95%E -4.63%K -7.20%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-17 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.07%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-10-17 19:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.07%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-10-17 19:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.25%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84%1.3%2026-10-17 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.25%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84%1.3%2026-10-17 19:25
Smarkets◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.73%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.10%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.17%1.8%2026-10-17 19:25