Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ceará v Criciuma

2026-10-08 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ceará (Local)

Prediction 37.56%2.66fair odd
EV -6.86%
Edge -2.77%
Kelly -4.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.44%37.56%37.56%37.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.442.482.4842.55%41.06%40.32%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Criciuma (Visit)

Prediction 32.02%3.12fair odd
EV -7.14%
Edge -2.46%
Kelly -3.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.83%32.02%32.02%32.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.852.902.9036.36%35.04%34.48%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.42%3.29fair odd
EV -7.22%
Edge -2.37%
Kelly -3.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.37%30.42%30.42%30.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.003.053.0534.48%33.33%32.79%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Ceará (Local): 37.56%; Criciuma (Visit): 32.02%; Draw: 30.42%. For Ceará (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.66. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.48, with an expected value of -6.86%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.48%EV -6.86%E -2.77%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.05%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -7.22%E -2.37%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-30 09:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.48%EV -6.86%E -2.77%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.05%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -7.22%E -2.37%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-30 09:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.48%EV -6.86%E -2.77%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.05%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -7.22%E -2.37%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-30 09:10
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.48%EV -6.86%E -2.77%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.05%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -7.22%E -2.37%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-30 09:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.48%EV -6.86%E -2.77%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.05%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -7.22%E -2.37%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-30 09:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.48%EV -6.86%E -2.77%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.05%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -7.22%E -2.37%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-30 09:09
betPARX🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.48%EV -6.86%E -2.77%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.05%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -7.22%E -2.37%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-30 09:07
BetRivers🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.56%EV -8.74%E -3.60%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.02%EV -8.74%E -3.07%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -8.74%E -2.91%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-30 09:09
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.64%EV -10.61%E -4.46%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -10.34%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -10.26%E -3.48%K -5.26%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-30 09:09
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.64%EV -10.61%E -4.46%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -10.34%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -10.26%E -3.48%K -5.26%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-30 09:09
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.64%EV -10.61%E -4.46%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -10.34%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -10.26%E -3.48%K -5.26%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-30 09:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -10.61%E -4.46%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -10.34%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -11.78%E -4.06%K -6.20%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-30 09:10
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.52%EV -11.74%E -5.00%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.07%EV -11.94%E -4.34%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.41%EV -11.78%E -4.06%K -6.20%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-30 09:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.