Language:English
Ceará v Criciuma
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ceará (Local)
Prediction 39.72%2.52fair odd
EV -4.67%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -3.33%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.76%39.65%39.87%40.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.322.302.4045.45%43.09%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Criciuma (Visit)
Prediction 30.20%3.31fair odd
EV -3.36%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.27%30.23%30.07%31.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.023.053.2034.72%33.15%32.79%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.08%3.32fair odd
EV -5.25%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -2.44%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.39%30.13%30.07%31.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.023.003.1534.48%33.08%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ceará (Local): 39.72%; Criciuma (Visit): 30.20%; Draw: 30.08%. For Criciuma (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -3.36%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -4.67%E -1.94%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -7.89%E -2.59%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.76%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 09:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -4.67%E -1.94%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -7.89%E -2.59%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.76%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 09:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -4.67%E -1.94%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -7.89%E -2.59%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.76%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 09:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -4.67%E -1.94%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -7.89%E -2.59%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.76%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 09:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -4.67%E -1.94%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -7.89%E -2.59%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.76%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 09:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -4.67%E -1.94%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -7.89%E -2.59%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.76%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 09:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -4.67%E -1.94%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -7.89%E -2.59%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.76%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 09:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -4.67%E -1.94%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -9.40%E -3.13%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -5.25%E -1.67%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 02:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -4.67%E -1.94%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -7.89%E -2.59%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -8.26%E -2.71%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-05 01:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -5.86%E -2.47%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.62%EV -3.36%E -1.05%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.38%EV -6.15%E -1.97%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-04 22:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -6.65%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -10.91%E -3.70%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -6.76%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-05 01:16 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.76%EV -6.65%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -10.91%E -3.70%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-04 03:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.76%EV -6.65%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -10.91%E -3.70%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-05 01:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 39.45%EV -7.05%E -3.01%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.78%EV -6.38%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-05 01:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 39.45%EV -7.05%E -3.01%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.78%EV -6.38%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-05 01:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 39.45%EV -7.05%E -3.01%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.78%EV -6.38%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-05 01:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 40.08%EV -8.24%E -3.57%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.38%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.06%EV -7.36%E -2.39%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-05 10:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 39.83%EV -8.24%E -3.57%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.49%EV -5.78%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-04 22:42 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.38%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.76%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-05 06:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -7.89%E -2.59%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -5.25%E -1.67%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-05 11:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.06%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -6.38%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -8.26%E -2.71%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-04 22:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.40%E -3.13%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.76%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-05 05:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.67%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -9.40%E -3.13%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.92%EV -8.26%E -2.71%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-05 05:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.67%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -9.40%E -3.13%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.92%EV -8.26%E -2.71%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-05 05:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -6.38%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.77%E -4.40%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-05 11:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -6.38%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.77%E -4.40%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-05 11:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -6.38%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.77%E -4.40%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-05 11:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -6.38%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.77%E -4.40%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-05 11:53 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -12.42%E -4.28%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-05 01:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -12.42%E -4.28%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-05 01:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -12.42%E -4.28%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-05 05:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -13.03%E -4.52%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-05 01:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.87%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -12.42%E -4.28%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.30%EV -11.27%E -3.82%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-05 09:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.87%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -12.42%E -4.28%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.30%EV -11.27%E -3.82%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-05 09:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.87%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -12.42%E -4.28%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.30%EV -11.27%E -3.82%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-05 09:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.87%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -12.42%E -4.28%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.30%EV -11.27%E -3.82%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-05 09:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.21%EV -9.04%E -3.95%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 29.90%EV -6.99%E -2.27%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 29.90%EV -7.36%E -2.39%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 01:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 38.79%EV -9.43%E -4.14%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.71%EV -13.03%E -4.52%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -12.77%E -4.40%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-10-05 09:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 39.78%EV -9.83%E -4.33%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.61%EV -10.91%E -3.70%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.61%EV -8.26%E -2.71%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-05 05:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.63%E -4.72%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.40%E -3.13%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-04 22:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.63%E -4.72%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.40%E -3.13%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-04 21:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.34%EV -12.61%E -5.73%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -9.40%E -3.13%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.08%EV -11.27%E -3.82%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-10-05 15:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.13%EV -12.61%E -5.73%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.43%EV -9.40%E -3.13%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.44%EV -12.77%E -4.40%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-10-04 08:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.66% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.33% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 30.02% | 11.8% | 2026-10-05 15:16 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 39.61% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 30.62% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.77% | 15.8% | 2026-10-05 05:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 40.66% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 40.66% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 18.67% | 82.2% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 40.66% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 40.66% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 18.67% | 82.2% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |