The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Botafogo v Fortaleza

Kickoff: 2026-03-20 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Botafogo (Local)

Prediction 30.62%3.27fair odd
EV -6.62%
Edge -2.17%
Kelly -3.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.50%30.62%30.62%30.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.013.053.0533.90%33.18%32.79%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fortaleza (Visit)

Prediction 39.74%2.52fair odd
EV -6.62%
Edge -2.82%
Kelly -4.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.74%39.74%39.74%39.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.322.352.3544.44%43.17%42.55%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.65%3.37fair odd
EV -5.13%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -2.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.32%29.65%29.65%29.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.143.173.2032.79%31.82%31.50%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Botafogo (Local): 30.62%; Fortaleza (Visit): 39.74%; Draw: 29.65%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.37. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -5.13%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.13%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-06 06:30
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.13%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-06 06:30
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.13%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-06 06:30
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.13%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-06 06:30
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.13%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-06 06:30
betPARX🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.13%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-06 06:30
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.13%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-06 06:30
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.62%E -2.10%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-06 06:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.60%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.10%E -2.61%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-06 06:30
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.60%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.10%E -2.61%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-06 06:30
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.81%EV -9.68%E -3.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.87%EV -9.40%E -4.12%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.10%E -2.61%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-06 06:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.50%EV -9.68%E -3.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.99%EV -10.59%E -4.71%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.50%EV -9.58%E -3.14%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-06 06:30
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.50%EV -9.68%E -3.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.99%EV -10.59%E -4.71%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.50%EV -9.58%E -3.14%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-06 06:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.50%EV -9.68%E -3.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.99%EV -10.59%E -4.71%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.50%EV -9.58%E -3.14%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-06 06:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.