The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Botafogo v Atletico Goianiense

Kickoff: 2026-04-20 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Botafogo (Local)

Prediction 44.57%2.24fair odd
EV -8.63%
Edge -4.21%
Kelly -8.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.57%44.57%44.57%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.982.022.0554.64%50.44%49.38%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atletico Goianiense (Visit)

Prediction 28.55%3.50fair odd
EV -7.20%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -3.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.72%28.55%28.55%28.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.143.153.2533.33%31.87%31.75%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.87%3.72fair odd
EV -5.94%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -2.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.34%26.87%26.87%26.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.353.403.5032.26%29.85%29.41%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Botafogo (Local): 44.57%; Atletico Goianiense (Visit): 28.55%; Draw: 26.87%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -5.94%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -8.63%E -4.21%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -7.20%E -2.22%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 12:49
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -8.63%E -4.21%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.63%E -2.70%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-12 12:47
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -10.86%E -5.43%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -11.48%E -3.70%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-12 12:49
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 45.45%EV -18.43%E -10.07%K -22.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.72%EV -14.34%E -4.78%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.83%EV -16.69%E -5.38%K -7.95%G +0.000%20.2%2026-04-12 12:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.