The School of Odds
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Botafogo-SP v Sport Recife

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 19:00 UTC

Final: Botafogo-SP 1–1 Sport Recife

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Botafogo-SP (Local)

Prediction 36.16%2.77fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -0.877%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.89%36.36%36.13%39.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.512.502.7044.44%39.90%40.00%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sport Recife (Visit)

Prediction 35.10%2.85fair odd
EV +0.037%
Edge +0.013%
Kelly +0.020%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.84%34.92%35.10%35.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.652.632.8540.00%37.72%38.02%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.74%3.48fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -0.935%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.72%28.72%28.78%29.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.183.153.3732.79%31.47%31.75%29.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Botafogo-SP (Local): 36.16%; Sport Recife (Visit): 35.10%; Draw: 28.74%. For Sport Recife (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.849. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.850, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.037%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.63%EV -12.13%E -4.99%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV +0.037%E +0.013%K +0.020%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-31 18:30
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.63%EV -12.13%E -4.99%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV +0.037%E +0.013%K +0.020%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-31 18:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.63%EV -12.13%E -4.99%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV +0.037%E +0.013%K +0.020%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-31 18:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.63%EV -12.13%E -4.99%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV +0.037%E +0.013%K +0.020%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-31 18:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.63%EV -12.13%E -4.99%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV +0.037%E +0.013%K +0.020%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-31 18:30
betPARX🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.63%EV -12.13%E -4.99%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV +0.037%E +0.013%K +0.020%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-31 18:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.63%EV -12.13%E -4.99%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV +0.037%E +0.013%K +0.020%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-31 18:30
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.15%EV -13.94%E -5.86%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.02%EV -3.47%E -1.26%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.41%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-31 18:30
Pinnacle🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.75%EV -2.37%E -0.877%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.61%EV -4.88%E -1.80%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.64%EV -3.15%E -0.935%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-31 18:55
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.91%EV -4.18%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -5.23%E -1.94%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-31 18:40
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -5.23%E -1.94%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.60%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 18:45
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -5.23%E -1.94%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -8.04%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-31 18:44
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.25%EV -15.75%E -6.76%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%EV -5.23%E -1.94%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-31 18:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.25%EV -15.75%E -6.76%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%EV -5.23%E -1.94%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-31 18:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.35%EV -16.11%E -6.94%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -5.23%E -1.94%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-31 18:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.43%EV -18.64%E -8.28%K -14.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -5.23%E -1.94%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.72%EV -8.04%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-31 18:45
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -16.83%E -7.32%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -5.23%E -1.94%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-31 18:30
1xBet🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.16%EV -3.81%E -1.43%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.16%EV -6.63%E -2.49%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 18:55
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.56%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.18%EV -6.98%E -2.64%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 18:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -6.98%E -2.64%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -8.04%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-31 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.34%EV -17.55%E -7.70%K -13.71%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.99%EV -6.98%E -2.64%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.66%EV -12.35%E -4.05%K -6.02%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-31 18:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.89%EV -2.37%E -0.877%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.68%EV -7.33%E -2.78%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -8.04%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-31 18:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.89%EV -2.37%E -0.877%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.68%EV -7.33%E -2.78%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -8.04%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-31 18:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 35.94%EV -7.43%E -2.90%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 34.85%EV -7.33%E -2.78%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.41%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-31 18:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.27%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.48%EV -7.68%E -2.92%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-31 18:45
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.88%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -8.04%E -3.07%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-31 18:45
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.81%EV -8.04%E -3.07%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-31 18:55
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.81%EV -8.04%E -3.07%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-31 18:55
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -8.04%E -3.07%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-31 18:45
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -8.74%E -3.36%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.04%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 18:55
Bovada🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 35.64%EV -6.35%E -2.45%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -8.74%E -3.36%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -8.04%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 18:44
BetUS🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 35.64%EV -6.35%E -2.45%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -8.74%E -3.36%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -8.04%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 18:45
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -8.74%E -3.36%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-31 18:45
888sport🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -8.74%E -3.36%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-31 18:55
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -8.74%E -3.36%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-31 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -8.74%E -3.36%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-31 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -8.74%E -3.36%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-31 18:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -8.74%E -3.36%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -6.60%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-31 18:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.15%EV -8.74%E -3.36%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.01%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-31 18:55
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -8.74%E -3.36%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -8.04%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-31 18:54
betano_uk🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.43%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.43%EV -10.49%E -4.11%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-31 18:55
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.43%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.43%EV -10.49%E -4.11%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-31 18:54
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.43%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.43%EV -10.49%E -4.11%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-31 18:55
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -12.25%E -4.90%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-31 18:45
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -12.25%E -4.90%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-31 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -12.25%E -4.90%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-31 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -12.25%E -4.90%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-31 18:55
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -12.25%E -4.90%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-31 18:55
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.57%EV -13.22%E -5.51%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -12.25%E -4.90%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-31 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.64%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.64%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-10-31 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.66%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.40%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.94%1.6%2026-10-31 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.66%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.40%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.94%1.6%2026-10-31 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.66%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.40%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.94%1.6%2026-10-31 18:55
Smarkets◎2.70I 37.04%NM 35.76%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.98%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.26%3.6%2026-10-31 18:55