Language:English
Botafogo-SP v Ponte Preta
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Botafogo-SP (Local)
Prediction 74.80%1.34fair odd
EV -5.00%
Edge -3.94%
Kelly -18.53%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.10%74.81%74.94%76.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.231.231.2784.75%81.44%81.30%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ponte Preta (Visit)
Prediction 8.13%12.30fair odd
EV +8.81%
Edge +0.658%
Kelly +0.711%
Growth +0.063%
assuming max odds 13.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.18%8.21%8.00%11.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.4310.9711.0013.3811.86%9.12%9.09%7.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 17.07%5.86fair odd
EV +9.24%
Edge +1.44%
Kelly +1.71%
Growth +0.158%
assuming max odds 6.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.62%16.98%17.06%19.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.465.506.4021.05%18.31%18.18%15.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Botafogo-SP (Local): 74.80%; Ponte Preta (Visit): 8.13%; Draw: 17.07%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.86. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.24%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.28%EV -5.75%E -4.57%K -22.12%G +0.000% | 8.43I 11.86%NM 11.10%EV -31.45%E -3.73%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.62%EV +9.24%E +1.44%K +1.71%G +0.158% | 6.9% | 2026-09-29 22:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.43%EV -8.74%E -7.17%K -39.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV -2.42%E -0.201%K -0.220%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.80%EV +0.703%E +0.119%K +0.143%G +0.001% | 7.2% | 2026-09-29 22:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.43%EV -8.74%E -7.17%K -39.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV -2.42%E -0.201%K -0.220%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.80%EV +0.703%E +0.119%K +0.143%G +0.001% | 7.2% | 2026-09-29 22:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.56%EV -7.25%E -5.85%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -6.48%E -0.564%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -1.86%E -0.323%K -0.391%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-29 22:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.56%EV -7.25%E -5.85%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -6.48%E -0.564%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -1.86%E -0.323%K -0.391%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-29 22:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.56%EV -7.25%E -5.85%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -6.48%E -0.564%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -1.86%E -0.323%K -0.391%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-29 22:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.56%EV -7.25%E -5.85%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -6.48%E -0.564%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -1.86%E -0.323%K -0.391%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-29 22:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.56%EV -7.25%E -5.85%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -6.48%E -0.564%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -1.86%E -0.323%K -0.391%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-29 22:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.56%EV -7.25%E -5.85%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -6.48%E -0.564%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -1.86%E -0.323%K -0.391%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-29 22:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.56%EV -7.25%E -5.85%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -6.48%E -0.564%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -1.86%E -0.323%K -0.391%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-29 21:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.61%EV -11.74%E -9.95%K -65.20%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -2.42%E -0.201%K -0.220%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.86%EV -2.71%E -0.476%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-29 22:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.64%EV -5.00%E -3.94%K -18.53%G +0.000% | 13.38I 7.47%NM 7.18%EV +8.81%E +0.658%K +0.711%G +0.063% | 5.59I 17.89%NM 17.18%EV -4.59%E -0.821%K -1.000%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-29 22:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.96%EV -5.75%E -4.57%K -22.12%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV -2.42%E -0.201%K -0.220%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -6.12%E -1.11%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-29 21:58 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.11%EV -6.50%E -5.20%K -26.00%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.82%EV -2.42%E -0.201%K -0.220%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -6.12%E -1.11%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-29 22:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.86%EV -8.00%E -6.50%K -34.77%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV +5.71%E +0.440%K +0.476%G +0.027% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.96%EV -6.12%E -1.11%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-29 18:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.64%EV -8.00%E -6.50%K -34.77%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.44%EV +1.65%E +0.132%K +0.143%G +0.002% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -6.12%E -1.11%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-29 22:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.00%EV -7.25%E -5.85%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.09%EV -6.48%E -0.564%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -6.12%E -1.11%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-29 22:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -5.75%E -4.57%K -22.12%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -18.68%E -1.87%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -6.12%E -1.11%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-29 22:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.10%EV -7.25%E -5.85%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -18.68%E -1.87%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -6.12%E -1.11%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-29 21:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -8.74%E -7.17%K -39.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -10.55%E -0.959%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -6.12%E -1.11%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-29 22:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -8.74%E -7.17%K -39.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -10.55%E -0.959%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -6.12%E -1.11%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-29 22:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -8.74%E -7.17%K -39.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -10.55%E -0.959%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -6.12%E -1.11%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-29 22:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -8.74%E -7.17%K -39.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -10.55%E -0.959%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -6.12%E -1.11%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-29 22:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.34%EV -10.24%E -8.53%K -51.20%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.22%EV -10.55%E -0.959%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -6.12%E -1.11%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-29 21:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.34%EV -10.24%E -8.53%K -51.20%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.22%EV -10.55%E -0.959%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -6.12%E -1.11%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-29 22:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.02%EV -7.25%E -5.85%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.75%EV -2.42%E -0.201%K -0.220%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.23%EV -7.83%E -1.45%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-29 22:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.35%EV -8.00%E -6.50%K -34.77%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.71%EV -14.61%E -1.39%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.94%EV -7.83%E -1.45%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-29 21:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.74%EV -7.25%E -5.85%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.33%EV -20.31%E -2.07%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.93%EV -7.83%E -1.45%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-29 22:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.67%EV -9.49%E -7.84%K -45.20%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.60%EV -14.61%E -1.39%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -7.83%E -1.45%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-29 22:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.67%EV -9.49%E -7.84%K -45.20%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.60%EV -14.61%E -1.39%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -7.83%E -1.45%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-29 22:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.67%EV -9.49%E -7.84%K -45.20%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.60%EV -14.61%E -1.39%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -7.83%E -1.45%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-29 22:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.80%EV -8.00%E -6.50%K -34.77%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.00%EV -6.48%E -0.564%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.20%EV -8.68%E -1.62%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-29 22:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.55%EV -7.25%E -5.85%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 9.70I 10.31%NM 9.40%EV -21.12%E -2.18%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.05%EV -8.68%E -1.62%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-29 22:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.55%EV -7.25%E -5.85%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 9.70I 10.31%NM 9.40%EV -21.12%E -2.18%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.05%EV -8.68%E -1.62%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-29 22:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.26%EV -7.25%E -5.85%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -10.55%E -0.959%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.37%EV -9.54%E -1.80%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-29 22:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.59%EV -10.24%E -8.53%K -51.20%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.52%EV -14.61%E -1.39%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.89%EV -9.54%E -1.80%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-29 22:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 74.75%EV -10.99%E -9.23%K -57.83%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.47%EV -14.61%E -1.39%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.78%EV -9.54%E -1.80%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-29 22:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.50%E -5.20%K -26.00%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -14.61%E -1.39%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.54%EV -10.39%E -1.98%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-29 22:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.96%EV -8.74%E -7.17%K -39.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.62%EV -2.42%E -0.201%K -0.220%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.42%EV -10.39%E -1.98%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-29 18:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.76%EV -10.24%E -8.53%K -51.20%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.16%EV -10.55%E -0.959%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -10.39%E -1.98%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-29 22:23 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.10%EV -8.74%E -7.17%K -39.75%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.91%EV -26.81%E -2.98%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.99%EV -10.39%E -1.98%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-29 21:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.10%EV -8.74%E -7.17%K -39.75%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.91%EV -26.81%E -2.98%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.99%EV -10.39%E -1.98%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-29 21:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.10%EV -8.74%E -7.17%K -39.75%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.91%EV -26.81%E -2.98%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.99%EV -10.39%E -1.98%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-29 21:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.10%EV -8.74%E -7.17%K -39.75%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.91%EV -26.81%E -2.98%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.99%EV -10.39%E -1.98%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-29 21:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.81%EV -8.74%E -7.17%K -39.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.19%EV -10.55%E -0.959%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -14.66%E -2.93%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-29 22:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.63%EV -10.24%E -8.53%K -51.20%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.46%EV -2.42%E -0.201%K -0.220%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -14.66%E -2.93%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-29 18:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.21%EV -8.74%E -7.17%K -39.75%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -18.68%E -1.87%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -14.66%E -2.93%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-29 22:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.14%EV -6.50%E -5.20%K -26.00%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.62%EV -2.42%E -0.201%K -0.220%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.25%EV -18.93%E -3.98%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-29 21:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.57% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.37% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 16.06% | 0.5% | 2026-09-29 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.57% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.37% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 16.06% | 0.5% | 2026-09-29 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.62% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.85% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.52% | 0.6% | 2026-09-29 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.62% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.85% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.52% | 0.6% | 2026-09-29 22:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.09% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.55% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.36% | 1.9% | 2026-09-29 22:25 |