Language:English
Botafogo-SP v Ceará
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Botafogo-SP (Local)
Prediction 41.53%2.41fair odd
EV -4.48%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -3.45%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.99%41.66%41.47%44.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.212.202.3048.78%45.34%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ceará (Visit)
Prediction 27.83%3.59fair odd
EV +1.32%
Edge +0.362%
Kelly +0.499%
Growth +0.007%
assuming max odds 3.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.81%27.66%27.83%28.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.303.303.6432.79%30.31%30.30%27.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.64%3.26fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -0.615%
Kelly -0.894%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.19%30.69%30.70%31.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.033.003.2034.48%32.99%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Botafogo-SP (Local): 41.53%; Ceará (Visit): 27.83%; Draw: 30.64%. For Ceará (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.59. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.64, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.32%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.87%EV -4.48%E -1.95%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.46%EV +1.32%E +0.362%K +0.499%G +0.007% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.68%EV -6.87%E -2.26%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-12 23:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.94%EV -6.97%E -3.11%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV +0.204%E +0.057%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.96%EV -9.93%E -3.38%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-12 23:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.94%EV -6.97%E -3.11%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV +0.204%E +0.057%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.96%EV -9.93%E -3.38%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-12 23:34 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -14.86%E -7.25%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -2.58%E -0.737%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -8.09%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-12 23:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.31%EV -4.48%E -1.95%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -3.97%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -6.56%E -2.15%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 23:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.56%E -2.91%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.36%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -8.09%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-12 23:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.56%E -2.91%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.36%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -8.09%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-12 23:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.88%EV -10.29%E -4.77%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -5.36%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-12 23:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.24%EV -7.39%E -3.31%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -5.36%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-12 23:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.04%EV -11.12%E -5.20%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.25%EV -5.92%E -1.75%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-12 23:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -8.63%E -3.92%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -6.75%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -3.50%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-12 23:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.56%E -2.91%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-12 23:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -8.63%E -3.92%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -1.97%E -0.615%K -0.894%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-12 21:14 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -8.63%E -3.92%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -1.97%E -0.615%K -0.894%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-12 21:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -8.63%E -3.92%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -1.97%E -0.615%K -0.894%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-12 21:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -8.63%E -3.92%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -1.97%E -0.615%K -0.894%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-12 21:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -8.63%E -3.92%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -1.97%E -0.615%K -0.894%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-12 21:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -8.63%E -3.92%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -1.97%E -0.615%K -0.894%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-12 21:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -8.63%E -3.92%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -1.97%E -0.615%K -0.894%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-12 21:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -8.63%E -3.92%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-12 23:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -10.71%E -4.98%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-12 23:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.63%E -3.92%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.09%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-12 23:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -8.63%E -3.92%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -8.15%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-12 23:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -4.48%E -1.95%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -9.54%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.09%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-12 23:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -4.48%E -1.95%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -9.54%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.09%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-12 23:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -4.48%E -1.95%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.54%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-12 23:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -4.48%E -1.95%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.54%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-12 23:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -4.48%E -1.95%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.54%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-12 23:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -4.48%E -1.95%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.54%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-12 23:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.28%EV -5.31%E -2.33%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.26%EV -9.54%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.45%EV -10.55%E -3.61%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-12 23:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.16%EV -7.39%E -3.31%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -9.54%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.60%EV -8.09%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-12 23:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.06%EV -7.80%E -3.51%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -9.54%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.90%EV -9.63%E -3.26%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-12 23:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -10.71%E -4.98%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.54%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -8.09%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-12 23:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -10.71%E -4.98%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.54%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -8.09%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-12 23:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.16%EV -10.29%E -4.77%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -10.93%E -3.42%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.38%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-12 23:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -10.71%E -4.98%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -10.93%E -3.42%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -8.09%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-12 23:19 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -8.63%E -3.92%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -10.93%E -3.42%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-12 23:53 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -8.63%E -3.92%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -10.93%E -3.42%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-12 23:53 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.23%EV -11.96%E -5.64%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.42%EV -12.32%E -3.91%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.35%EV -6.56%E -2.15%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-12 23:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.23%EV -11.96%E -5.64%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.42%EV -12.32%E -3.91%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.35%EV -6.56%E -2.15%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-12 21:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.23%EV -11.96%E -5.64%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.42%EV -12.32%E -3.91%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.35%EV -6.56%E -2.15%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-12 21:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -12.79%E -6.09%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -13.71%E -4.42%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -8.09%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-10-12 23:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.10%EV -13.62%E -6.55%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.71%EV -15.10%E -4.95%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.19%EV -8.09%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-10-12 23:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.31% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.76% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.94% | 1.0% | 2026-10-12 23:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.31% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.76% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.94% | 1.0% | 2026-10-12 23:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.31% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.76% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.94% | 1.0% | 2026-10-12 23:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.31% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.76% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.94% | 1.0% | 2026-10-12 23:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.15% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.02% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82% | 1.4% | 2026-10-12 23:50 |