The School of Odds
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Avai v São Bernardo

2026-11-07 19:00 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Avai (Local)

Prediction 48.75%2.05fair odd
EV -4.94%
Edge -2.53%
Kelly -5.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.14%48.58%48.75%49.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.891.881.9554.05%52.99%53.05%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

São Bernardo (Visit)

Prediction 23.20%4.31fair odd
EV -4.66%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.76%23.34%23.18%24.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.903.924.1127.78%25.65%25.51%24.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.05%3.56fair odd
EV -4.62%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.37%28.08%28.07%29.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.243.253.4032.26%30.84%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Avai (Local): 48.75%; São Bernardo (Visit): 23.20%; Draw: 28.05%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.40, with an expected value of -4.62%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.63%EV -4.94%E -2.53%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.07%EV -4.66%E -1.13%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -6.03%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-01 23:00
Coolbet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.46%EV -6.40%E -3.33%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -10.69%E -2.78%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -4.62%E -1.36%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 23:10
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%EV -6.89%E -3.61%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.53%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -13.04%E -4.21%K -6.21%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-01 22:50
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%EV -6.89%E -3.61%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.53%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -13.04%E -4.21%K -6.21%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-01 22:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%EV -6.89%E -3.61%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.53%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -13.04%E -4.21%K -6.21%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-01 22:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%EV -6.89%E -3.61%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.53%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -13.04%E -4.21%K -6.21%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-01 22:50
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.25%EV -7.37%E -3.88%K -8.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -4.89%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -6.03%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 22:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -7.37%E -3.88%K -8.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -7.21%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -7.43%E -2.25%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.9%2026-11-01 22:50
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.73%EV -7.37%E -3.88%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.38%EV -8.14%E -2.05%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.89%EV -6.87%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-01 22:50
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.14%EV -7.37%E -3.88%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.88%EV -16.49%E -4.58%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.99%EV -10.23%E -3.20%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.7%2026-11-01 23:10
BetMGM🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.31%EV -7.86%E -4.16%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -11.85%E -3.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -7.43%E -2.25%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 22:55
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.03%EV -8.35%E -4.44%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -7.21%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -7.43%E -2.25%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 22:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.94%EV -8.35%E -4.44%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.35%EV -8.60%E -2.18%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.71%EV -6.87%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-01 22:50
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.82%EV -8.35%E -4.44%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -7.21%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.83%E -2.72%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 22:50
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.82%EV -8.35%E -4.44%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -7.21%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.83%E -2.72%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 22:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.82%EV -8.35%E -4.44%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -7.21%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.83%E -2.72%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 22:50
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -8.84%E -4.73%K -10.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -7.21%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -7.43%E -2.25%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 22:49
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.22%EV -9.81%E -5.30%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -7.21%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -8.83%E -2.72%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-01 22:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.12%EV -9.81%E -5.30%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.06%EV -14.17%E -3.83%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -10.23%E -3.20%K -4.65%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-01 22:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.12%EV -9.81%E -5.30%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.06%EV -14.17%E -3.83%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -10.23%E -3.20%K -4.65%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-01 22:50
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.12%EV -9.81%E -5.30%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.06%EV -14.17%E -3.83%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -10.23%E -3.20%K -4.65%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-01 22:50
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.12%EV -9.81%E -5.30%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.06%EV -14.17%E -3.83%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -10.23%E -3.20%K -4.65%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-01 22:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.78I 56.18%NM 48.21%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.19%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.60%16.5%2026-11-01 22:50