Language:English
Avai v Juventude
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Avai (Local)
Prediction 33.70%2.97fair odd
EV -5.63%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -3.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.15%34.67%33.70%39.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.672.702.8044.44%37.47%37.04%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Juventude (Visit)
Prediction 36.42%2.75fair odd
EV +12.91%
Edge +4.17%
Kelly +6.15%
Growth +0.794%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.95%35.24%36.39%36.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.602.523.1040.82%38.53%39.68%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.87%3.35fair odd
EV -7.39%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -3.52%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.51%30.09%29.92%32.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.603.023.003.1038.46%33.17%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Avai (Local): 33.70%; Juventude (Visit): 36.42%; Draw: 29.87%. For Juventude (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.75. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.91%.
Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -19.11%E -7.96%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV +12.91%E +4.17%K +6.15%G +0.794% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-20 05:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -19.11%E -7.96%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV +9.27%E +3.09%K +4.64%G +0.430% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-20 05:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -22.48%E -9.78%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV +9.27%E +3.09%K +4.64%G +0.430% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -13.37%E -4.61%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-02-20 05:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 37.47%EV -24.17%E -10.74%K -19.34%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.11%EV +1.99%E +0.709%K +1.10%G +0.022% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 32.42%EV -22.33%E -8.59%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 18.6% | 2026-02-20 05:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -5.63%E -2.01%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -5.30%E -2.04%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -5.63%E -2.01%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -5.30%E -2.04%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -5.63%E -2.01%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -5.30%E -2.04%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -5.63%E -2.01%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -5.30%E -2.04%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -5.63%E -2.01%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -5.30%E -2.04%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -5.63%E -2.01%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -5.30%E -2.04%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 18:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.76I 36.23%NM 33.57%EV -6.98%E -2.53%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -7.12%E -2.79%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.09%EV -7.99%E -2.59%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-05 18:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.56%EV -7.32%E -2.66%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.19%EV -7.12%E -2.79%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -8.88%E -2.91%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.17%EV -6.31%E -2.27%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.59%EV -8.21%E -3.26%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.23%EV -8.88%E -2.91%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.17%EV -6.31%E -2.27%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.59%EV -8.21%E -3.26%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.23%EV -8.88%E -2.91%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -9.00%E -3.33%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -8.94%E -3.58%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -9.00%E -3.33%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -8.94%E -3.58%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.32%E -2.66%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.94%E -3.58%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.32%E -2.66%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.94%E -3.58%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.29%EV -9.00%E -3.33%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.24%EV -9.67%E -3.90%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.47%EV -11.87%E -4.02%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.29%EV -9.00%E -3.33%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.24%EV -9.67%E -3.90%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.47%EV -11.87%E -4.02%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.29%EV -9.00%E -3.33%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.24%EV -9.67%E -3.90%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.47%EV -11.87%E -4.02%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.90%EV -11.36%E -4.32%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.39%EV -10.76%E -4.39%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.90%EV -11.36%E -4.32%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.39%EV -10.76%E -4.39%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 33.98%EV -11.70%E -4.47%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.34%EV -10.76%E -4.39%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.68%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 33.98%EV -11.70%E -4.47%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.34%EV -10.76%E -4.39%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.68%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-03-05 17:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.