The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Avai v Goiás

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Avai (Local)

Prediction 39.95%2.50fair odd
EV -3.31%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.66%39.85%40.07%41.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.312.332.4247.62%43.36%43.01%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Goiás (Visit)

Prediction 29.73%3.36fair odd
EV -4.87%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -2.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.68%29.78%29.72%31.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.033.053.2034.72%33.03%32.79%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.32%3.30fair odd
EV -4.50%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.55%30.37%30.21%31.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.982.973.1535.71%33.55%33.67%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Avai (Local): 39.95%; Goiás (Visit): 29.73%; Draw: 30.32%. For Avai (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.50. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.42, with an expected value of -3.31%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.22%EV -3.31%E -1.37%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -9.33%E -3.06%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.46%EV -10.86%E -3.70%K -5.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-18 12:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.22%EV -3.31%E -1.37%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -9.33%E -3.06%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.46%EV -10.86%E -3.70%K -5.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-18 12:40
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -4.11%E -1.71%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -13.79%E -4.75%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -12.08%E -4.16%K -6.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-18 06:20
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -4.11%E -1.71%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -13.79%E -4.75%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -12.08%E -4.16%K -6.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-18 06:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -4.11%E -1.71%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -13.79%E -4.75%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -12.08%E -4.16%K -6.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-18 06:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -4.11%E -1.71%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -13.79%E -4.75%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -12.08%E -4.16%K -6.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-18 06:20
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -6.11%E -2.60%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -7.84%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -9.05%E -3.02%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-18 03:15
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.11%E -3.52%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.82%E -3.61%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.01%E -1.94%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-19 10:06
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -10.10%E -4.49%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -4.87%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -4.50%E -1.43%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 21:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -10.10%E -4.49%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -7.84%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -6.01%E -1.94%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-18 00:15
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -12.10%E -5.50%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -4.87%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.01%E -1.94%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-17 21:30
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -12.10%E -5.50%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -7.84%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -9.05%E -3.02%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-17 21:25
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -12.10%E -5.50%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -7.84%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -9.05%E -3.02%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-18 13:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.34%EV -16.10%E -7.67%K -14.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -14.38%E -4.99%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.25%EV -15.11%E -5.40%K -8.39%G +0.000%18.1%2026-05-18 00:03
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-05-18 00:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-05-18 00:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-05-18 00:25