The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Avai v Ceará

2026-10-03 14:00 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Avai (Local)

Prediction 38.72%2.58fair odd
EV -7.07%
Edge -2.95%
Kelly -5.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.62%38.72%38.72%38.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.362.402.4043.48%42.33%41.67%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ceará (Visit)

Prediction 31.93%3.13fair odd
EV -5.81%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -2.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.59%31.93%31.93%32.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.882.952.9535.71%34.67%33.90%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.35%3.41fair odd
EV -7.54%
Edge -2.39%
Kelly -3.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.35%29.35%29.35%29.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.103.153.1533.33%32.26%31.75%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Avai (Local): 38.72%; Ceará (Visit): 31.93%; Draw: 29.35%. For Ceará (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.13. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.95, with an expected value of -5.81%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -7.07%E -2.95%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.81%E -1.97%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-22 09:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -7.07%E -2.95%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.81%E -1.97%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-22 09:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -7.07%E -2.95%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.81%E -1.97%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-22 09:59
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -7.07%E -2.95%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.81%E -1.97%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-22 09:59
betPARX🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -7.07%E -2.95%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.81%E -1.97%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-22 09:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -7.07%E -2.95%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.81%E -1.97%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-22 09:58
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -7.07%E -2.95%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.81%E -1.97%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-22 09:59
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -9.01%E -3.83%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -9.01%E -3.16%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.35%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-22 09:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.62%EV -10.17%E -4.38%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.00%EV -10.60%E -3.79%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.38%EV -10.47%E -3.43%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-22 09:59
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.62%EV -10.17%E -4.38%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.00%EV -10.60%E -3.79%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.38%EV -10.47%E -3.43%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-22 09:59
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.62%EV -10.17%E -4.38%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.00%EV -10.60%E -3.79%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.38%EV -10.47%E -3.43%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-22 09:59
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -10.94%E -4.76%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.60%E -3.79%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -11.94%E -3.98%K -5.97%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-22 09:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -10.94%E -4.76%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.60%E -3.79%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -11.94%E -3.98%K -5.97%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-22 09:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.