The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Avai v Botafogo-SP

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 19:00 UTC

Final: Avai 0–2 Botafogo-SP

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Avai (Local)

Prediction 38.80%2.58fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.86%39.03%38.79%42.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.332.322.5047.62%42.87%43.10%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Botafogo-SP (Visit)

Prediction 29.84%3.35fair odd
EV -2.12%
Edge -0.648%
Kelly -0.932%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.71%29.79%29.82%31.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.873.083.103.2834.84%32.43%32.26%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.36%3.19fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.390%
Kelly -0.571%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.80%31.18%31.39%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.972.953.1535.71%33.66%33.90%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Avai (Local): 38.80%; Botafogo-SP (Visit): 29.84%; Draw: 31.36%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.19. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.15, with an expected value of -1.23%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.53%EV -2.99%E -1.20%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.37%EV -2.12%E -0.648%K -0.932%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.11%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-24 18:49
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.54%EV -4.93%E -2.01%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.98%EV -6.00%E -1.91%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.48%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-24 18:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.66%EV -5.32%E -2.18%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -3.02%E -0.929%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.31%EV -8.44%E -2.89%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-24 18:31
BetOnline.ag🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.66%EV -5.32%E -2.18%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -3.02%E -0.929%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.31%EV -8.44%E -2.89%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-24 18:32
1xBet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.33%EV -5.32%E -2.18%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.32%EV -4.81%E -1.51%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.36%EV -9.38%E -3.25%K -4.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 18:59
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.87%E -2.86%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -10.48%E -3.49%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -2.80%E -0.902%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-24 18:49
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.66%EV -6.87%E -2.86%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.42%EV -8.99%E -2.95%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-24 18:55
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.87%E -2.86%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -9.07%E -3.13%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-24 18:31
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.87%E -2.86%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -9.07%E -3.13%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-24 18:25
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.87%E -2.86%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -9.07%E -3.13%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-24 18:25
Betsson🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -6.87%E -2.86%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.48%E -3.49%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.35%EV -8.44%E -2.89%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 18:55
NordicBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -6.87%E -2.86%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.48%E -3.49%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.35%EV -8.44%E -2.89%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 18:55
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -6.87%E -2.86%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -12.20%E -4.36%K -6.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 18:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -6.87%E -2.86%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -12.20%E -4.36%K -6.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 18:59
Bovada🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 38.63%EV -7.26%E -3.04%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -6.00%E -1.91%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.06%EV -9.69%E -3.37%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 18:59
BetUS🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 38.63%EV -7.26%E -3.04%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -6.00%E -1.91%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.06%EV -9.69%E -3.37%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 18:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.69%EV -7.65%E -3.21%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.09%EV -8.69%E -2.84%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -7.50%E -2.54%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -7.65%E -3.21%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -9.07%E -3.13%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 18:59
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.86%EV -7.65%E -3.21%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.07%EV -13.46%E -4.64%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.07%EV -9.07%E -3.13%K -4.77%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-24 18:58
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.86%EV -7.65%E -3.21%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.07%EV -13.46%E -4.64%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.07%EV -9.07%E -3.13%K -4.77%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-24 18:59
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.76%EV -8.81%E -3.75%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -11.97%E -4.06%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-24 18:25
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -8.81%E -3.75%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.48%E -3.49%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -9.07%E -3.13%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 18:49
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.63%EV -9.98%E -4.30%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.51%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.92%EV -1.23%E -0.390%K -0.571%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 18:40
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.43%EV -9.98%E -4.30%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -4.51%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -2.80%E -0.902%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 18:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.43%EV -9.98%E -4.30%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -4.51%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -2.80%E -0.902%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.43%EV -9.98%E -4.30%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -4.51%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -2.80%E -0.902%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.43%EV -9.98%E -4.30%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -4.51%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -2.80%E -0.902%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.43%EV -9.98%E -4.30%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -4.51%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -2.80%E -0.902%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 18:55
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.43%EV -9.98%E -4.30%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -4.51%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -2.80%E -0.902%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 18:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.45%EV -9.98%E -4.30%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%EV -7.50%E -2.54%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-24 18:32
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -10.75%E -4.67%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -3.02%E -0.929%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -2.80%E -0.902%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-23 19:49
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -10.75%E -4.67%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -4.51%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -2.80%E -0.902%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 19:48
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -10.75%E -4.67%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -14.06%E -4.88%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 18:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -10.75%E -4.67%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -14.06%E -4.88%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 18:25
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.94%EV -10.75%E -4.67%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.21%EV -14.36%E -5.00%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-24 18:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.94%EV -10.75%E -4.67%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.21%EV -14.36%E -5.00%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-24 18:25
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -10.75%E -4.67%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -10.48%E -3.49%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -12.20%E -4.36%K -6.78%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-24 18:24
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.40%EV -12.69%E -5.64%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -8.99%E -2.95%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -4.36%E -1.43%K -2.13%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-24 18:40
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.21%EV -13.47%E -6.04%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.40%EV -8.99%E -2.95%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.39%EV -7.50%E -2.54%K -3.85%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.21%EV -13.47%E -6.04%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.40%EV -8.99%E -2.95%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.39%EV -7.50%E -2.54%K -3.85%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 18:55
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -14.63%E -6.65%K -12.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-24 16:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -14.63%E -6.65%K -12.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-24 18:48
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.34%EV -14.63%E -6.65%K -12.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -10.48%E -3.49%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.08%EV -7.50%E -2.54%K -3.85%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-24 18:40
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.34%EV -14.63%E -6.65%K -12.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -10.48%E -3.49%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.08%EV -7.50%E -2.54%K -3.85%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-24 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.26%EV -15.80%E -7.28%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.61%EV -11.97%E -4.06%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.13%EV -9.07%E -3.13%K -4.77%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-24 18:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.23%EV -18.51%E -8.82%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.71%EV -4.51%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.06%EV -7.50%E -2.54%K -3.85%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-24 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.13%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.81%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%0.6%2026-10-24 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.96%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%1.0%2026-10-24 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.15%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83%1.4%2026-10-24 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.15%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83%1.4%2026-10-24 18:50
Smarkets◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.34%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.93%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.73%1.7%2026-10-24 18:55