The School of Odds
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Atletico Goianiense v Nautico PE

Kickoff: 2026-04-01 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Goianiense (Local)

Prediction 41.56%2.41fair odd
EV -4.41%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -3.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.23%42.06%41.48%47.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.202.252.3051.02%45.50%44.44%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nautico PE (Visit)

Prediction 27.61%3.62fair odd
EV +13.18%
Edge +3.21%
Kelly +4.25%
Growth +0.560%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.76%27.20%27.66%28.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.383.354.1032.26%29.57%29.85%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.84%3.24fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -0.911%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.63%30.74%30.86%31.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.882.962.953.1534.72%33.75%33.90%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atletico Goianiense (Local): 41.56%; Nautico PE (Visit): 27.61%; Draw: 30.84%. For Nautico PE (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.62. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.18%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.61%EV -18.54%E -9.46%K -19.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV +13.18%E +3.21%K +4.25%G +0.560%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -2.87%E -0.911%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 11:24
BetOnline.ag🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.45%EV -9.82%E -4.52%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -3.38%E -0.966%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -9.04%E -3.06%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-01 21:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.45%EV -9.82%E -4.52%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -3.38%E -0.966%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -9.04%E -3.06%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-01 21:50
BetUS🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.45%EV -9.82%E -4.52%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -3.38%E -0.966%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -9.04%E -3.06%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-01 21:48
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.05%EV -6.49%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -4.76%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -4.41%E -1.42%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-01 21:30
Pinnacle🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 43.02%EV -13.14%E -6.29%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.29%EV -5.59%E -1.63%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 30.69%EV -9.65%E -3.29%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-01 21:30
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.49%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.14%E -1.81%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.49%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 21:30
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.49%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.14%E -1.81%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.49%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 21:29
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.47%EV -11.89%E -5.61%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -6.14%E -1.81%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -10.58%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-01 21:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.29%EV -6.49%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -7.52%E -2.25%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -7.49%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-01 21:30
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.21%EV -6.49%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -7.52%E -2.25%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.11%EV -8.11%E -2.72%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-01 21:30
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.21%EV -6.49%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -7.52%E -2.25%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.11%EV -8.11%E -2.72%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-01 21:29
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.49%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.90%E -2.70%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.58%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-01 21:25
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.49%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.90%E -2.70%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.58%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-01 21:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.49%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.90%E -2.70%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.58%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-01 21:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.49%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.90%E -2.70%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.58%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-01 21:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.23%EV -7.74%E -3.49%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.90%E -2.70%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%EV -9.04%E -3.06%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-01 21:30
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -8.57%E -3.89%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -8.90%E -2.70%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -11.19%E -3.89%K -5.95%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-01 21:30
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -4.41%E -1.92%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -11.66%E -3.64%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.49%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-01 21:25
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -10.65%E -4.95%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -11.66%E -3.64%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -7.49%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-01 21:28
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.64%EV -12.72%E -6.06%K -11.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.21%EV -14.42%E -4.65%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.15%EV -10.58%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-01 21:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.68%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.61%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.71%0.1%2026-04-01 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.68%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.61%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.71%0.1%2026-04-01 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.68%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.61%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.71%0.1%2026-04-01 21:50