The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Atletico Goianiense v Grêmio Novorizontino

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 19:30 UTC

Final: Atletico Goianiense 0–1 Grêmio Novorizontino

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Goianiense (Local)

Prediction 42.70%2.34fair odd
EV +0.333%
Edge +0.142%
Kelly +0.247%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.69%42.63%42.66%44.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.192.152.3548.78%45.68%46.51%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit)

Prediction 29.38%3.40fair odd
EV -0.109%
Edge -0.032%
Kelly -0.045%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.44%29.41%29.39%31.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.083.103.4036.36%32.48%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.93%3.58fair odd
EV -3.66%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.93%27.96%27.95%29.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.263.253.4532.26%30.67%30.77%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atletico Goianiense (Local): 42.70%; Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit): 29.38%; Draw: 27.93%. For Atletico Goianiense (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.34. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.333%.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.86%EV +0.333%E +0.142%K +0.247%G +0.001%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -13.33%E -4.52%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -7.85%E -2.38%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 19:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.86%EV +0.333%E +0.142%K +0.247%G +0.001%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -13.33%E -4.52%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -7.85%E -2.38%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 19:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.86%EV +0.333%E +0.142%K +0.247%G +0.001%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -13.33%E -4.52%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -7.85%E -2.38%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 19:25
Casumo🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.86%EV +0.333%E +0.142%K +0.247%G +0.001%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -13.33%E -4.52%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -7.85%E -2.38%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 19:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.86%EV +0.333%E +0.142%K +0.247%G +0.001%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -13.33%E -4.52%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -7.85%E -2.38%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 19:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.86%EV +0.333%E +0.142%K +0.247%G +0.001%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -13.33%E -4.52%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -7.85%E -2.38%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 19:25
betPARX🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.86%EV +0.333%E +0.142%K +0.247%G +0.001%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -13.33%E -4.52%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -7.85%E -2.38%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 19:25
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV +0.333%E +0.142%K +0.247%G +0.001%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -13.33%E -4.52%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -9.24%E -2.84%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 19:11
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.72%EV -3.94%E -1.75%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -17.74%E -6.33%K -9.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.37%EV -12.04%E -3.82%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 19:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.72%EV -3.94%E -1.75%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -17.74%E -6.33%K -9.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.37%EV -12.04%E -3.82%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 19:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.93%EV -4.79%E -2.15%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.80%EV -17.74%E -6.33%K -9.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.27%EV -12.04%E -3.82%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-24 19:25
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.75%EV -4.79%E -2.15%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.66%EV -17.74%E -6.33%K -9.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -13.43%E -4.33%K -6.40%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-24 19:25
Pinnacle🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -6.07%E -2.76%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.38%EV -0.403%E -0.119%K -0.168%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.89%EV -3.66%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-24 19:20
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -6.07%E -2.76%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.38%EV -0.403%E -0.119%K -0.168%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.89%EV -3.66%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-24 19:10
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -6.07%E -2.76%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -4.52%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.05%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-24 19:11
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.07%E -2.76%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.85%E -2.38%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 19:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.07%E -2.76%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.85%E -2.38%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 19:11
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.07%E -2.76%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.85%E -2.38%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 19:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.85%EV -6.07%E -2.76%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.88%EV -19.21%E -6.98%K -10.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.28%EV -13.43%E -4.33%K -6.40%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-24 19:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.25%EV -6.92%E -3.18%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.15%EV -7.16%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.60%EV -10.08%E -3.13%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 19:11
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.97%EV -7.35%E -3.39%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -7.45%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -5.05%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 19:19
Codere (IT)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.35%EV -7.78%E -3.60%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.15%EV -9.24%E -2.84%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-24 19:15
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -8.21%E -3.82%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -3.05%E -0.923%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.85%E -2.38%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 19:20
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -8.21%E -3.82%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -0.109%E -0.032%K -0.045%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -10.64%E -3.32%K -4.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 19:29
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -8.21%E -3.82%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.05%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 19:11
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -8.21%E -3.82%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -3.05%E -0.923%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -9.24%E -2.84%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 19:15
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.21%E -3.82%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -5.05%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 19:20
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -8.21%E -3.82%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.24%E -2.84%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 19:11
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -8.21%E -3.82%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.24%E -2.84%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 19:15
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -8.21%E -3.82%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.24%E -2.84%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 19:15
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.21%E -3.82%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.64%E -3.32%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-24 19:26
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.21%E -3.82%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.64%E -3.32%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-24 19:27
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.21%E -3.82%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.64%E -3.32%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-24 19:27
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.21%E -3.82%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.64%E -3.32%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-24 19:27
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -8.21%E -3.82%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.86%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -10.64%E -3.32%K -4.84%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-24 19:15
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -8.21%E -3.82%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.86%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -10.64%E -3.32%K -4.84%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-24 19:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -8.21%E -3.82%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.86%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -10.64%E -3.32%K -4.84%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-24 19:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -8.21%E -3.82%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.86%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -10.64%E -3.32%K -4.84%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-24 19:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -8.21%E -3.82%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -17.74%E -6.33%K -9.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -7.85%E -2.38%K -3.41%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-24 19:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.72%EV -8.63%E -4.03%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -3.05%E -0.923%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -6.45%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 19:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.72%EV -8.63%E -4.03%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -3.05%E -0.923%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -6.45%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 19:15
Bovada🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.58%EV -9.49%E -4.47%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -4.52%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.85%E -2.38%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 19:15
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -10.34%E -4.92%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -3.05%E -0.923%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -13.43%E -4.33%K -6.40%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 19:25
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -10.34%E -4.92%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -7.45%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -10.64%E -3.32%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 19:20
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -10.34%E -4.92%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -11.86%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -9.24%E -2.84%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-24 19:20
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.03%EV -12.48%E -6.09%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.20%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -9.24%E -2.84%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-24 19:28
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.03%EV -12.48%E -6.09%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.20%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -9.24%E -2.84%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-24 19:25
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.03%EV -12.48%E -6.09%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.40%EV -11.86%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.57%EV -10.64%E -3.32%K -4.84%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-24 19:18
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.80%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.70%1.0%2026-10-24 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.78%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58%1.4%2026-10-24 19:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.78%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58%1.4%2026-10-24 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.78%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58%1.4%2026-10-24 19:20
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 43.55%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.02%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%3.4%2026-10-24 19:25