Language:English
Athletic Club (MG) v Sport Recife
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Athletic Club (MG) (Local)
Prediction 37.08%2.70fair odd
EV -4.33%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -2.74%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.58
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.05%37.81%37.05%44.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.412.452.5850.00%41.41%40.82%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sport Recife (Visit)
Prediction 33.36%3.00fair odd
EV +13.44%
Edge +3.95%
Kelly +5.60%
Growth +0.752%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.09%32.74%33.41%34.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.842.803.4038.17%35.22%35.71%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.55%3.38fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.386%
Kelly -0.551%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.14%29.45%29.55%31.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.983.093.103.3433.56%32.31%32.26%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Athletic Club (MG) (Local): 37.08%; Sport Recife (Visit): 33.36%; Draw: 29.55%. For Sport Recife (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.00. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.44%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -25.84%E -12.92%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV +13.44%E +3.95%K +5.60%G +0.752% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -11.34%E -3.78%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-10-01 22:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -13.97%E -6.02%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV +1.76%E +0.577%K +0.859%G +0.015% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -6.91%E -2.19%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -13.97%E -6.02%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV +1.76%E +0.577%K +0.859%G +0.015% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -6.91%E -2.19%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -13.97%E -6.02%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV +1.76%E +0.577%K +0.859%G +0.015% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -6.91%E -2.19%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -13.97%E -6.02%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV +1.76%E +0.577%K +0.859%G +0.015% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -6.91%E -2.19%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -13.97%E -6.02%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV +1.76%E +0.577%K +0.859%G +0.015% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -6.91%E -2.19%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -13.97%E -6.02%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV +1.76%E +0.577%K +0.859%G +0.015% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -6.91%E -2.19%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -13.97%E -6.02%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV +1.76%E +0.577%K +0.859%G +0.015% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -6.91%E -2.19%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.42%EV -7.29%E -2.92%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.18%EV +0.092%E +0.031%K +0.046%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.39%EV -11.93%E -4.00%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-01 23:29 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.07%EV -15.45%E -6.78%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.46%EV +0.092%E +0.031%K +0.046%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.47%EV -8.38%E -2.70%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-01 23:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.21%EV -17.31%E -7.76%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.39%EV -1.58%E -0.534%K -0.808%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.40%EV -9.86%E -3.23%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-01 23:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.21%EV -17.31%E -7.76%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.39%EV -1.58%E -0.534%K -0.808%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.40%EV -9.86%E -3.23%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-01 23:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.21%EV -17.31%E -7.76%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.39%EV -1.58%E -0.534%K -0.808%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.40%EV -9.86%E -3.23%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-01 23:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 39.80%EV -17.31%E -7.76%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -3.24%E -1.12%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.59%EV -11.34%E -3.78%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.13%EV -18.42%E -8.37%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.44%EV -3.24%E -1.12%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.43%EV -11.34%E -3.78%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-10-01 23:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.62%EV -5.07%E -1.98%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.55%EV -4.25%E -1.48%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.83%EV -1.29%E -0.386%K -0.551%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-01 23:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.12%EV -16.57%E -7.36%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -4.91%E -1.72%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -5.43%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-01 23:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.10%EV -5.44%E -2.13%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -6.58%E -2.35%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.11%EV -3.95%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-01 23:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.76%EV -5.44%E -2.13%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.48%EV -6.58%E -2.35%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.76%EV -6.91%E -2.19%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-01 23:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.22%EV -7.29%E -2.92%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -6.58%E -2.35%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -6.91%E -2.19%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -11.00%E -4.58%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -6.58%E -2.35%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -2.47%E -0.749%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-01 23:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -9.15%E -3.73%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -6.58%E -2.35%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.38%E -2.70%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-01 23:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -9.15%E -3.73%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -6.58%E -2.35%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -11.34%E -3.78%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-01 23:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -9.15%E -3.73%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -6.58%E -2.35%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -11.34%E -3.78%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-01 23:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -9.15%E -3.73%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -6.58%E -2.35%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -11.34%E -3.78%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-01 23:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.56I 39.06%NM 36.75%EV -5.07%E -1.98%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.84%EV -7.25%E -2.61%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.40%EV -5.43%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.56I 39.06%NM 36.75%EV -5.07%E -1.98%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.84%EV -7.25%E -2.61%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.40%EV -5.43%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -5.44%E -2.13%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -8.25%E -3.00%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -8.38%E -2.70%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -5.44%E -2.13%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -8.25%E -3.00%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -8.38%E -2.70%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-01 23:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -7.29%E -2.92%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -8.25%E -3.00%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -8.38%E -2.70%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-01 23:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -9.15%E -3.73%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -8.25%E -3.00%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -8.38%E -2.70%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-01 23:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -11.00%E -4.58%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -8.25%E -3.00%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -11.34%E -3.78%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-01 23:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.56%EV -4.33%E -1.68%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.42%EV -8.58%E -3.13%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.02%EV -3.95%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-01 23:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.14%EV -8.04%E -3.24%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 33.62%EV -8.58%E -3.13%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -6.91%E -2.19%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -5.44%E -2.13%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 33.80%EV -9.25%E -3.40%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.14%EV -9.86%E -3.23%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -5.44%E -2.13%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 33.80%EV -9.25%E -3.40%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.14%EV -9.86%E -3.23%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -5.44%E -2.13%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -9.92%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -8.38%E -2.70%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -5.44%E -2.13%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -9.92%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -8.38%E -2.70%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -7.29%E -2.92%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -9.92%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -8.38%E -2.70%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-01 23:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -7.29%E -2.92%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -9.92%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.34%E -3.78%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -11.00%E -4.58%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -9.92%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.34%E -3.78%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-01 23:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -11.00%E -4.58%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -9.92%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.34%E -3.78%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-01 23:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -11.00%E -4.58%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -9.92%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.34%E -3.78%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-01 23:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -11.00%E -4.58%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -9.92%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.34%E -3.78%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-01 23:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.39%EV -9.15%E -3.73%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.90%EV -12.25%E -4.66%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -11.34%E -3.78%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.34%EV -9.15%E -3.73%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 33.98%EV -12.59%E -4.80%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.68%EV -11.34%E -3.78%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.86% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52% | 1.1% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.86% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52% | 1.1% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.14% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.37% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.49% | 1.2% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.79% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.77% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44% | 1.4% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.41% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.34% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.26% | 2.0% | 2026-10-01 23:25 |