Language:English
América Mineiro v Fortaleza
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
América Mineiro (Local)
Prediction 24.76%4.04fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -0.815%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.91
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.68%24.80%24.78%26.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.633.603.9129.85%27.51%27.78%25.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fortaleza (Visit)
Prediction 48.10%2.08fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -0.920%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.23%48.07%48.18%50.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.931.942.0456.50%51.69%51.55%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.14%3.68fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -0.638%
Kelly -0.883%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.89%27.13%27.04%28.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.333.303.6032.26%29.99%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: América Mineiro (Local): 24.76%; Fortaleza (Visit): 48.10%; Draw: 27.14%. For Fortaleza (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.08. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.04, with an expected value of -1.88%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.91I 25.58%NM 24.20%EV -3.19%E -0.815%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.29%EV -7.65%E -3.98%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.51%EV -3.11%E -0.871%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-03 23:51 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.73%EV -5.91%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.22%EV -4.28%E -2.15%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -9.08%E -2.71%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-05 03:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -5.91%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -3.80%E -1.90%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-05 07:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.91%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.58%EV -9.57%E -5.09%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -2.30%E -0.638%K -0.883%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-04 06:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -5.91%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -8.13%E -4.26%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -6.37%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-03 22:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -5.91%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.31%EV -7.65%E -3.98%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -7.72%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-03 22:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -5.91%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.31%EV -7.65%E -3.98%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -7.72%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-03 22:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -5.91%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.31%EV -7.65%E -3.98%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -7.72%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-03 22:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -5.91%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.03%EV -9.57%E -5.09%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -6.37%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-03 22:09 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -5.91%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.64%EV -11.02%E -5.95%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-05 06:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -5.91%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.64%EV -11.02%E -5.95%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-05 06:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -7.15%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.39%EV -4.76%E -2.41%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -7.72%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-05 03:28 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -7.15%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.53%EV -7.65%E -3.98%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.01%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 06:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -7.15%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -8.13%E -4.26%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -7.72%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-05 06:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -7.15%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -8.61%E -4.53%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -7.72%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-05 06:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -7.15%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -8.61%E -4.53%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -7.72%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-05 06:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -7.15%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.21%EV -10.05%E -5.38%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-04 07:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -8.39%E -2.27%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.73%EV -6.69%E -3.45%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -7.72%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-05 10:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -8.39%E -2.27%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -6.21%E -3.18%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 03:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -8.39%E -2.27%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -6.21%E -3.18%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 03:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -8.39%E -2.27%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -8.13%E -4.26%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.72%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-05 07:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.93%EV -8.39%E -2.27%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.03%EV -14.86%E -8.40%K -19.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -7.72%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-10-04 18:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.01%EV -8.88%E -2.41%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.93%EV -7.65%E -3.98%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -7.72%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-03 22:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -9.63%E -2.64%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.30%EV -10.05%E -5.38%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -9.08%E -2.71%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-05 06:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -10.86%E -3.02%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.21%E -3.18%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 11:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -10.86%E -3.02%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.21%E -3.18%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 11:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -10.86%E -3.02%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.21%E -3.18%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 11:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -10.86%E -3.02%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.21%E -3.18%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 11:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -10.86%E -3.02%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.21%E -3.18%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 03:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -10.86%E -3.02%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -8.13%E -4.26%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -7.72%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-04 14:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -12.10%E -3.41%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -1.88%E -0.920%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-05 13:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -12.10%E -3.41%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -1.88%E -0.920%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-05 13:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -12.10%E -3.41%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -1.88%E -0.920%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-05 13:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -12.10%E -3.41%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -1.88%E -0.920%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-05 13:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -12.10%E -3.41%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -1.88%E -0.920%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-05 13:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -12.10%E -3.41%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -1.88%E -0.920%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-05 13:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -12.10%E -3.41%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -1.88%E -0.920%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-05 13:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -13.34%E -3.81%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -6.21%E -3.18%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-05 04:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -13.34%E -3.81%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -11.02%E -5.95%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -7.72%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-04 14:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -13.34%E -3.81%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -11.02%E -5.95%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -7.72%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-04 14:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -13.34%E -3.81%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -11.02%E -5.95%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -7.72%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-04 14:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -13.34%E -3.81%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -11.02%E -5.95%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -7.72%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-04 14:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -13.34%E -3.81%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.14%EV -11.98%E -6.54%K -14.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.69%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-10-03 22:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -14.58%E -4.23%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%EV -3.80%E -1.90%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.35%EV -13.15%E -4.11%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-05 13:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -15.82%E -4.65%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.23%EV -4.76%E -2.41%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.43%EV -14.51%E -4.61%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-05 13:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -15.82%E -4.65%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.23%EV -4.76%E -2.41%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.43%EV -14.51%E -4.61%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-05 13:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -15.82%E -4.65%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.36%EV -5.24%E -2.66%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.37%EV -14.51%E -4.61%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-05 13:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -15.82%E -4.65%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.48%EV -5.72%E -2.92%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.30%EV -14.51%E -4.61%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-05 13:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.33%EV -17.05%E -5.09%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.23%EV -6.21%E -3.18%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.45%EV -15.87%E -5.12%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-10-05 13:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (2)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.06% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.66% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.28% | 3.3% | 2026-10-05 12:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.27% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 47.46% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.27% | 16.4% | 2026-10-05 11:00 |