The School of Odds
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América Mineiro v Cuiabá

Kickoff: 2026-10-26 22:30 UTC

Final: América Mineiro 1–0 Cuiabá

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

América Mineiro (Local)

Prediction 34.11%2.93fair odd
EV +5.75%
Edge +1.85%
Kelly +2.74%
Growth +0.157%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.15%34.12%34.22%35.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.722.703.1040.00%36.78%37.04%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cuiabá (Visit)

Prediction 36.90%2.71fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.413%
Kelly -0.659%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.21%36.92%36.78%40.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.482.482.6843.48%40.38%40.32%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.99%3.45fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -0.598%
Kelly -0.849%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.94%28.95%29.00%30.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.133.133.3834.48%31.97%32.00%29.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: América Mineiro (Local): 34.11%; Cuiabá (Visit): 36.90%; Draw: 28.99%. For América Mineiro (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.93. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.75%.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV +5.75%E +1.85%K +2.74%G +0.157%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -15.13%E -6.58%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -7.24%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-26 22:24
Casumo🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -1.76%E -0.611%K -0.936%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.76%EV -8.49%E -3.42%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -8.69%E -2.76%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-26 22:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -1.76%E -0.611%K -0.936%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.76%EV -8.49%E -3.42%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -8.69%E -2.76%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-26 22:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -1.76%E -0.611%K -0.936%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.76%EV -8.49%E -3.42%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -8.69%E -2.76%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-26 22:10
Unibet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -1.76%E -0.611%K -0.936%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.76%EV -8.49%E -3.42%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -8.69%E -2.76%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-26 22:10
betPARX🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -1.76%E -0.611%K -0.936%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.76%EV -8.49%E -3.42%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -8.69%E -2.76%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-26 22:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -1.76%E -0.611%K -0.936%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.76%EV -8.49%E -3.42%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -8.69%E -2.76%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-26 22:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -1.76%E -0.611%K -0.936%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.76%EV -8.49%E -3.42%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -8.69%E -2.76%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-26 22:10
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -4.49%E -1.60%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -9.59%E -3.92%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -4.34%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-26 22:14
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -4.49%E -1.60%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -7.75%E -3.10%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.24%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-26 22:15
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -4.49%E -1.60%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -11.44%E -4.77%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.24%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-26 22:15
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -4.49%E -1.60%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -11.44%E -4.77%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -13.04%E -4.35%K -6.52%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-26 22:10
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.64%EV -6.19%E -2.25%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -7.75%E -3.10%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -8.69%E -2.76%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-26 22:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.38%EV -6.19%E -2.25%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.47%EV -9.59%E -3.92%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -8.69%E -2.76%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-26 22:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -6.19%E -2.25%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -11.44%E -4.77%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -7.24%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-26 22:15
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -6.19%E -2.25%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -9.59%E -3.92%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -10.14%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-26 22:15
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -6.19%E -2.25%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -9.59%E -3.92%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -10.14%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-26 22:15
betano_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -6.19%E -2.25%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -11.44%E -4.77%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -13.04%E -4.35%K -6.52%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-26 22:23
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.40%EV -6.19%E -2.25%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.91%EV -13.28%E -5.65%K -9.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -13.04%E -4.35%K -6.52%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-26 22:10
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.40%EV -6.19%E -2.25%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.91%EV -13.28%E -5.65%K -9.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -13.04%E -4.35%K -6.52%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-26 22:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.23%EV -6.19%E -2.25%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.72%EV -13.28%E -5.65%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.05%EV -14.48%E -4.91%K -7.43%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-26 22:10
Pinnacle🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.42%EV -7.22%E -2.65%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 36.08%EV -1.48%E -0.553%K -0.884%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.50%EV -2.02%E -0.598%K -0.849%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-26 22:25
BetUS🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.42%EV -7.22%E -2.65%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 36.08%EV -1.48%E -0.553%K -0.884%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.50%EV -2.02%E -0.598%K -0.849%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-26 22:24
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -7.90%E -2.93%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -4.06%E -1.56%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.34%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-26 22:24
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -7.90%E -2.93%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -4.06%E -1.56%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -7.24%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-26 22:15
FanDuel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -7.90%E -2.93%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -4.06%E -1.56%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -7.24%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-26 22:14
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -7.90%E -2.93%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -11.44%E -4.77%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -10.14%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-26 22:24
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.53%EV -7.90%E -2.93%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 37.70%EV -14.02%E -6.02%K -10.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.77%EV -14.48%E -4.91%K -7.43%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-26 22:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.31%EV -7.90%E -2.93%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 37.60%EV -14.39%E -6.20%K -10.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.08%EV -15.93%E -5.49%K -8.39%G +0.000%14.6%2026-10-26 22:10
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%EV -9.60%E -3.62%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 36.43%EV -6.64%E -2.63%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -7.24%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-26 22:24
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -9.60%E -3.62%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -7.75%E -3.10%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.14%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-26 22:14
LowVig.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.75%EV -9.95%E -3.77%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.21%EV -1.11%E -0.413%K -0.659%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.79%E -1.78%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-26 22:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.75%EV -9.95%E -3.77%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.21%EV -1.11%E -0.413%K -0.659%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.79%E -1.78%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-26 22:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 34.85%EV -9.95%E -3.77%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 35.94%EV -5.54%E -2.16%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -8.69%E -2.76%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-26 22:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.48%EV -10.29%E -3.91%K -6.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.27%EV -7.75%E -3.10%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -10.14%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-26 22:25
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -10.63%E -4.06%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.88%EV -7.75%E -3.10%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -4.34%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-26 22:25
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -10.63%E -4.06%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.75%E -3.10%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.14%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-26 22:15
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -10.63%E -4.06%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.75%E -3.10%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.14%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-26 22:15
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -10.63%E -4.06%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.75%E -3.10%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.14%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-26 22:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -10.63%E -4.06%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.75%E -3.10%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.14%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-26 22:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -10.63%E -4.06%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.75%E -3.10%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.14%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-26 22:15
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.94%EV -10.63%E -4.06%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.37%EV -12.18%E -5.12%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -10.14%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-26 22:15
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -11.31%E -4.35%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.25%EV -9.59%E -3.92%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -13.04%E -4.35%K -6.52%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-26 22:15
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -11.31%E -4.35%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.25%EV -9.59%E -3.92%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -13.04%E -4.35%K -6.52%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-26 22:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -11.31%E -4.35%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.25%EV -9.59%E -3.92%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -13.04%E -4.35%K -6.52%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-26 22:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -11.31%E -4.35%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.25%EV -9.59%E -3.92%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -13.04%E -4.35%K -6.52%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-26 22:15
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.43%EV -13.02%E -5.10%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.43%EV -5.90%E -2.32%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -10.14%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-26 22:25
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -14.72%E -5.89%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.57%EV -11.44%E -4.77%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -10.14%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-26 22:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.84I 35.21%NM 35.00%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.76%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24%0.6%2026-10-26 22:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 35.00%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.76%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24%0.6%2026-10-26 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 35.00%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.76%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24%0.6%2026-10-26 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 35.00%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.76%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24%0.6%2026-10-26 22:25
Smarkets◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.07%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.84%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.09%1.1%2026-10-26 22:25