The School of Odds
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América Mineiro v Botafogo

Kickoff: 2026-03-31 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

América Mineiro (Local)

Prediction 48.46%2.06fair odd
EV -0.654%
Edge -0.319%
Kelly -0.622%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.84%48.49%48.52%50.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.921.922.0554.64%52.22%52.22%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Botafogo (Visit)

Prediction 23.10%4.33fair odd
EV +3.49%
Edge +0.779%
Kelly +1.00%
Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 4.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.05%22.90%23.08%24.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.964.004.4826.67%25.22%25.00%22.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.44%3.52fair odd
EV -4.16%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.69%28.61%28.40%30.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.153.233.3734.72%31.70%31.01%29.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: América Mineiro (Local): 48.46%; Botafogo (Visit): 23.10%; Draw: 28.44%. For Botafogo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.33. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.48, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.97%EV -10.35%E -5.59%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.48I 22.32%NM 21.05%EV +3.49%E +0.779%K +1.00%G +0.035%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.98%EV -4.16%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-24 19:59
Coolbet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -6.95%E -3.62%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.15%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-25 21:14
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -7.92%E -4.17%K -8.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -6.15%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-25 21:15
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -7.44%E -3.89%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.00%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-25 21:19
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -9.38%E -5.01%K -10.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.15%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-25 21:15
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.50%E -2.82%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -14.69%E -4.90%K -7.34%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-25 21:13
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.50%E -2.82%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -14.69%E -4.90%K -7.34%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-25 21:13
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.50%E -2.82%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -14.69%E -4.90%K -7.34%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-25 21:12
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -5.50%E -2.82%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -12.22%E -3.22%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -7.58%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-26 08:59
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.64%EV -10.35%E -5.59%K -12.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -12.22%E -3.22%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -7.58%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-25 21:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -0.654%E -0.319%K -0.622%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -13.37%E -3.57%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -14.69%E -4.90%K -7.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-25 21:12
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.09%EV -11.32%E -6.18%K -13.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.98%EV -13.37%E -3.57%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.92%EV -18.10%E -6.28%K -9.63%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-25 21:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.