Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vasco da Gama v Corinthians

2026-10-24 21:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vasco da Gama (Local)

Prediction 50.14%1.99fair odd
EV -4.24%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -4.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.08%50.06%50.20%50.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.821.851.9159.17%54.82%54.05%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Corinthians (Visit)

Prediction 23.09%4.33fair odd
EV -3.73%
Edge -0.894%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.67%23.06%22.99%24.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.883.904.1728.17%25.76%25.64%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.78%3.73fair odd
EV -3.61%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.23%26.88%26.81%27.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.383.353.6031.25%29.57%29.85%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Vasco da Gama (Local): 50.14%; Corinthians (Visit): 23.09%; Draw: 26.78%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.73. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.60, with an expected value of -3.61%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.29%EV -4.24%E -2.22%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.03%EV -3.73%E -0.894%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -3.61%E -1.00%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-13 14:58
SportsBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.62%EV -6.24%E -3.34%K -7.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -5.35%E -1.30%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -3.61%E -1.00%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-13 14:48
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.24%EV -6.24%E -3.34%K -7.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -5.35%E -1.30%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -6.28%E -1.80%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-13 14:59
MyBookie.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.58%EV -6.24%E -3.34%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -8.81%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.95%EV -7.89%E -2.29%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-13 14:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.37%EV -7.25%E -3.92%K -8.53%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.01%EV -6.50%E -1.60%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.28%E -1.80%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-13 14:50
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.25%E -3.92%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -9.96%E -2.55%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -8.96%E -2.64%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-13 14:49
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -7.25%E -3.92%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -9.96%E -2.55%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -11.64%E -3.53%K -5.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-13 16:09
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -7.25%E -3.92%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -9.96%E -2.55%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -11.64%E -3.53%K -5.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-13 16:09
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -7.25%E -3.92%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -9.96%E -2.55%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -11.64%E -3.53%K -5.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-13 16:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -7.25%E -3.92%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -9.96%E -2.55%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -11.64%E -3.53%K -5.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-13 16:09
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.78%EV -8.25%E -4.51%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -5.35%E -1.30%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.28%E -1.80%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-13 14:53
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.92%EV -9.75%E -5.42%K -12.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -12.27%E -3.23%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -8.96%E -2.64%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-13 14:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.74%EV -10.76%E -6.04%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.42%EV -12.73%E -3.37%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -11.64%E -3.53%K -5.06%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-13 14:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.36%EV -10.76%E -6.04%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.41%EV -16.89%E -4.69%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.23%EV -10.30%E -3.07%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-13 14:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 49.08%EV -11.76%E -6.68%K -15.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.33%EV -18.04%E -5.08%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.58%EV -12.98%E -3.99%K -5.77%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-13 14:50
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.19%EV -12.26%E -7.01%K -16.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.91%EV -16.89%E -4.69%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.90%EV -14.32%E -4.47%K -6.51%G +0.000%16.2%2026-10-13 15:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 50.59%EV -15.27%E -9.03%K -22.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.11%EV -14.58%E -3.94%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.31%EV -12.98%E -3.99%K -5.77%G +0.000%17.0%2026-10-13 14:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.80I 55.56%NM 48.26%3.57I 28.01%NM 24.33%3.17I 31.55%NM 27.40%15.1%2026-10-13 19:55
Smarkets◎1.77I 56.50%NM 48.48%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.84%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.68%16.5%2026-10-13 14:50