Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sao Paulo v Coritiba

2026-08-16 00:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sao Paulo (Local)

Prediction 56.16%1.78fair odd
EV -4.53%
Edge -2.67%
Kelly -6.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.93%56.10%56.01%57.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.641.661.7064.52%60.87%60.24%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Coritiba (Visit)

Prediction 18.04%5.54fair odd
EV -0.769%
Edge -0.140%
Kelly -0.171%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.43%18.08%18.00%19.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.965.005.5023.09%20.17%20.00%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.80%3.88fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.516%
Kelly -0.700%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.85%25.82%26.00%26.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.533.583.8030.30%28.29%27.93%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sao Paulo (Local): 56.16%; Coritiba (Visit): 18.04%; Draw: 25.80%. For Coritiba (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.54. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 5.50, with an expected value of -0.769%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.70I 58.82%NM 56.50%EV -4.53%E -2.67%K -6.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.46%EV -0.769%E -0.140%K -0.171%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.03%EV -4.80%E -1.30%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 15:53
Fanatics1.69I 59.17%NM 55.82%EV -5.09%E -3.01%K -7.38%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.28%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -7.12%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-02 13:04
Coolbet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.56%EV -5.65%E -3.37%K -8.32%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -5.28%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -3.25%E -0.867%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 12:59
SportsBet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.45%EV -5.65%E -3.37%K -8.32%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.59%EV -7.99%E -1.57%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -1.96%E -0.516%K -0.700%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 12:59
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -5.65%E -3.37%K -8.32%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -10.69%E -2.16%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -4.54%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 13:00
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -5.65%E -3.37%K -8.32%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -10.69%E -2.16%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -4.54%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 12:59
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.22%E -3.72%K -9.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -9.79%E -1.96%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 15:09
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.22%E -3.72%K -9.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -9.79%E -1.96%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 15:10
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.22%E -3.72%K -9.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -9.79%E -1.96%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 15:10
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.22%E -3.72%K -9.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -9.79%E -1.96%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 15:10
Bet Right1.66I 60.24%NM 55.97%EV -6.78%E -4.08%K -10.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -9.79%E -1.96%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -5.83%E -1.60%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 13:00
Marathon Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.52%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.29%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.43%EV -3.48%E -0.650%K -0.799%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.05%EV -7.64%E -2.13%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 15:49
Codere (IT)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.11%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.29%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.81%EV -6.18%E -1.19%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.41%E -2.37%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-02 14:04
LeoVegas1.65I 60.61%NM 55.71%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -11.59%E -2.37%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.12%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-02 15:10
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 55.83%EV -9.02%E -5.57%K -14.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -14.30%E -3.01%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -7.12%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-02 12:57
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 57.12%EV -9.59%E -5.95%K -15.71%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.03%EV -7.99%E -1.57%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -4.54%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 12:58
Sky Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 53.93%EV -10.15%E -6.34%K -16.91%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.93%EV -21.88%E -5.05%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.15%EV -14.86%E -4.50%K -6.46%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-02 13:00
Winamax (DE)1.58I 63.29%NM 55.51%EV -11.27%E -7.13%K -19.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.07%EV -17.01%E -3.70%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.42%EV -10.99%E -3.19%K -4.49%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-02 14:05
Unibet (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 55.10%EV -11.27%E -7.13%K -19.43%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.52%EV -15.20%E -3.23%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.38%EV -14.86%E -4.50%K -6.46%G +0.000%14.9%2026-08-02 14:04
Winamax (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 55.18%EV -12.39%E -7.94%K -22.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.13%EV -18.81%E -4.18%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.69%EV -13.57%E -4.05%K -5.77%G +0.000%16.2%2026-08-02 14:04
Betclic (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 55.57%EV -12.95%E -8.36%K -23.55%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.33%EV -15.20%E -3.23%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.10%EV -14.86%E -4.50%K -6.46%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-02 14:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.57I 63.69%NM 54.59%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.63%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.78%16.7%2026-08-02 14:05