The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Sao Paulo v Bragantino-SP

2026-08-29 23:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sao Paulo (Local)

Prediction 44.41%2.25fair odd
EV -4.07%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -3.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%44.30%44.41%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.062.062.1652.36%48.57%48.54%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bragantino-SP (Visit)

Prediction 26.74%3.74fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.88%26.75%26.80%27.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.413.403.6032.26%29.33%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.84%3.47fair odd
EV -3.95%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.96%28.96%28.79%30.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.153.153.3333.33%31.79%31.75%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sao Paulo (Local): 44.41%; Bragantino-SP (Visit): 26.74%; Draw: 28.84%. For Bragantino-SP (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.74. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.60, with an expected value of -3.72%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.40%EV -4.07%E -1.88%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.79%EV -4.26%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.80%EV -3.95%E -1.19%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-18 01:05
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.51%E -2.10%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.82%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-17 18:44
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.51%E -2.10%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.82%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-17 18:44
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.73%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.82%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-17 18:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.41%EV -6.73%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.80%EV -6.93%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.79%EV -6.55%E -2.02%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-18 00:59
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.73%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.82%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-17 19:00
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -6.73%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -13.47%E -4.49%K -6.73%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-17 18:54
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -6.73%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -13.47%E -4.49%K -6.73%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-17 18:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -6.73%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -13.47%E -4.49%K -6.73%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-17 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -6.73%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -13.47%E -4.49%K -6.73%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-17 18:55
MyBookie.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.88%EV -8.51%E -4.13%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.71%EV -7.12%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-17 18:43
Codere (IT)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.80%EV -8.51%E -4.13%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -7.70%E -2.41%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-17 18:44
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -3.72%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -6.26%E -1.93%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-17 22:10
LeoVegas🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.70%E -2.41%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-17 18:44
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.58%E -3.41%K -5.04%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-17 19:15
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -11.75%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -10.58%E -3.41%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-17 18:49
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.26%EV -11.17%E -5.59%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -17.10%E -5.51%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.84%EV -13.47%E -4.49%K -6.73%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-17 18:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.94%EV -12.95%E -6.61%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.10%EV -13.08%E -4.03%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.96%EV -9.14%E -2.90%K -4.25%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-17 18:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.62%EV -13.39%E -6.87%K -14.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.37%EV -11.75%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.01%EV -13.47%E -4.49%K -6.73%G +0.000%14.9%2026-08-17 18:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 44.60%EV -13.84%E -7.13%K -14.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.04%EV -14.42%E -4.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.37%EV -12.03%E -3.94%K -5.87%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-17 18:44
Betclic (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.15%EV -15.17%E -7.94%K -16.67%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 26.29%EV -12.28%E -3.74%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 28.56%EV -12.89%E -4.27%K -6.38%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-17 18:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 43.39%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.40%3.03I 33.00%NM 29.21%13.0%2026-08-18 01:10
Smarkets◎1.94I 51.55%NM 44.30%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.86%2.98I 33.56%NM 28.84%16.4%2026-08-17 18:45

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.