La escuela de los momios

Santos v Fluminense

Inicio: 2026-04-19 19:00 UTC

Final: Santos 2–3 Fluminense

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Santos (Local)

Predicción 42.05%2.38momio equitativo
EV +0.089%
Ventaja +0.037%
Kelly +0.064%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.34%41.98%42.13%43.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.052.232.232.3848.78%44.88%44.84%42.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Fluminense (Visitante)

Predicción 28.65%3.49momio equitativo
EV +2.27%
Ventaja +0.636%
Kelly +0.884%
Crecimiento +0.020%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.19%28.70%28.55%29.61%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.223.203.5734.72%31.05%31.25%28.01%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.30%3.41momio equitativo
EV -3.61%
Ventaja -1.10%
Kelly -1.58%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.29

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.09%29.32%29.32%30.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.153.153.2935.71%31.74%31.75%30.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.25I 44.44%NM 43.13%EV -5.38%E -2.39%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.19%EV +2.27%E +0.636%K +0.884%G +0.020%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.68%EV -4.19%E -1.28%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-19 18:55
Pinnacle2.27I 44.05%NM 42.63%EV -4.54%E -2.00%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.96%EV -0.879%E -0.254%K -0.357%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.41%EV -3.61%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-19 18:50
BetUS2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -2.60%E -0.764%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 18:55
Bovada2.22I 45.05%NM 42.24%EV -6.64%E -2.99%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -4.03%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.77%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 18:49
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -8.32%E -3.82%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -4.03%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 18:55
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -8.32%E -3.82%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -4.03%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 18:55
ATG (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 40.76%EV +0.089%E +0.037%K +0.064%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.39%EV -5.46%E -1.66%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.85%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-19 18:55
Svenska Spel2.38I 42.02%NM 40.76%EV +0.089%E +0.037%K +0.064%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.39%EV -5.46%E -1.66%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.85%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-19 18:55
LowVig.ag2.30I 43.48%NM 41.43%EV -3.28%E -1.42%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -5.46%E -1.66%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.69%EV -5.95%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-19 18:25
BetOnline.ag2.30I 43.48%NM 41.43%EV -3.28%E -1.42%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -5.46%E -1.66%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.69%EV -5.95%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-19 18:25
BetAnything2.30I 43.48%NM 41.43%EV -3.28%E -1.42%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -5.46%E -1.66%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.69%EV -5.95%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-19 18:25
SportsBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -5.38%E -2.39%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -5.46%E -1.66%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 18:25
Codere (IT)2.23I 44.84%NM 42.15%EV -6.22%E -2.79%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.48%EV -5.46%E -1.66%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.37%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-19 18:45
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -5.46%E -1.66%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 18:29
FanDuel2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.38%E -2.39%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.46%E -1.66%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -9.18%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 18:24
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.46%E -1.66%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 18:55
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.46%E -1.66%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 18:45
Everygame2.20I 45.45%NM 42.28%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.46%E -1.66%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 18:24
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -9.58%E -4.46%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -5.46%E -1.66%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 18:55
Coolbet2.34I 42.74%NM 40.71%EV -1.59%E -0.681%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.04%EV -6.04%E -1.84%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.24%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-19 13:50
Marathon Bet2.21I 45.25%NM 42.22%EV -7.06%E -3.19%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.44%EV -6.04%E -1.84%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.34%EV -6.83%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 18:50
GTbets2.25I 44.44%NM 41.70%EV -5.38%E -2.39%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.70%EV -6.32%E -1.93%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.60%EV -7.12%E -2.25%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 18:45
DraftKings2.25I 44.44%NM 41.94%EV -5.38%E -2.39%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -6.90%E -2.12%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 18:45
Fanatics2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.28%E -1.42%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 14:55
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.38%E -2.39%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 15:10
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.38%E -2.39%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 15:10
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.38%E -2.39%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 15:10
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.38%E -2.39%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 15:10
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.38%E -2.39%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 15:10
Unibet (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.83%EV -3.28%E -1.42%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 18:55
Grosvenor2.30I 43.48%NM 40.83%EV -3.28%E -1.42%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 18:55
Unibet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.83%EV -3.28%E -1.42%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 18:55
Casumo2.30I 43.48%NM 40.83%EV -3.28%E -1.42%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 18:55
Unibet (NL)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.83%EV -3.28%E -1.42%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 18:55
betPARX2.30I 43.48%NM 40.83%EV -3.28%E -1.42%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 18:55
BetRivers2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -4.12%E -1.81%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 18:40
Bet Right2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 18:40
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 18:40
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-19 18:40
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -9.18%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 18:55
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -12.11%E -4.04%K -6.05%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-19 18:30
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -12.11%E -4.04%K -6.05%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-19 18:29
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -12.11%E -4.04%K -6.05%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-19 18:30
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -12.11%E -4.04%K -6.05%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-19 18:30
Paddy Power2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -9.58%E -4.46%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.11%E -4.04%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-19 18:23
LeoVegas (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 40.66%EV -4.12%E -1.81%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.43%EV -9.76%E -3.10%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -9.18%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 18:55
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.47%EV -9.58%E -4.46%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -9.76%E -3.10%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-19 18:45
Unibet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.66%EV -11.69%E -5.56%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.44%EV -9.76%E -3.10%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -9.18%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-19 18:45
Betclic (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.54%EV -11.69%E -5.56%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.36%EV -9.76%E -3.10%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 29.10%EV -10.05%E -3.27%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-19 18:44
LeoVegas2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -5.38%E -2.39%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -11.19%E -3.61%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.18%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 18:55
betfred_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -11.19%E -3.61%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 18:40
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -9.58%E -4.46%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -11.19%E -3.61%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-19 10:05
PMU (FR)2.23I 44.84%NM 40.81%EV -6.22%E -2.79%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -11.19%E -3.61%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.84%EV -10.64%E -3.49%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 18:55
TABtouch2.23I 44.84%NM 40.81%EV -6.22%E -2.79%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -11.19%E -3.61%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.84%EV -10.64%E -3.49%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 18:55
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.58%E -4.46%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.19%E -3.61%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -12.11%E -4.04%K -6.05%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-19 18:25
Virgin Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 40.94%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.53%EV -12.62%E -4.14%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.53%EV -10.64%E -3.49%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-19 18:55
LiveScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 40.94%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.53%EV -12.62%E -4.14%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.53%EV -10.64%E -3.49%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-19 18:55
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.45%EV -13.79%E -6.73%K -13.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.01%EV -14.06%E -4.69%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.53%EV -10.64%E -3.49%K -5.19%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-19 18:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.34%EV -11.69%E -5.56%K -10.62%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -17.49%E -6.07%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.25%EV -17.96%E -6.42%K -9.98%G +0.000%18.1%2026-04-19 18:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.34I 42.74%NM 42.58%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.68%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-04-19 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.41%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63%0.8%2026-04-19 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.41%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63%0.8%2026-04-19 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.41%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63%0.8%2026-04-19 18:55
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 42.10%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.44%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.46%1.9%2026-04-19 18:50
Smarkets2.32I 43.10%NM 42.27%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.02%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.72%2.0%2026-04-19 18:45