The School of Odds
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Remo v Sao Paulo

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 22:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Remo (Local)

Prediction 31.00%3.23fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.347%
Kelly -0.506%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.65%31.00%31.00%32.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.953.003.1936.36%33.87%33.33%31.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sao Paulo (Visit)

Prediction 39.94%2.50fair odd
EV -1.34%
Edge -0.541%
Kelly -0.909%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.40%40.00%39.94%41.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.282.302.4748.78%43.83%43.48%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.05%3.44fair odd
EV -1.21%
Edge -0.357%
Kelly -0.506%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.69%29.00%29.06%30.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.153.153.4034.48%31.77%31.75%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Remo (Local): 31.00%; Sao Paulo (Visit): 39.94%; Draw: 29.05%. For Remo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.23. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.19, with an expected value of -1.11%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.19I 31.35%NM 30.11%EV -1.11%E -0.347%K -0.506%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -5.73%E -2.43%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.19%EV -4.41%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-20 06:09
Coolbet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.69%EV -3.90%E -1.26%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.48%EV -6.13%E -2.61%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -4.12%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-20 22:40
Fanatics🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -3.90%E -1.26%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -8.13%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.12%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-18 15:20
Pinnacle🎯3.01I 33.22%NM 31.74%EV -6.69%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.68%EV -1.34%E -0.541%K -0.909%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.58%EV -6.15%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-25 01:32
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -7.00%E -2.33%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -8.13%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -1.21%E -0.357%K -0.506%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-18 16:00
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -7.00%E -2.33%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -8.13%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -1.21%E -0.357%K -0.506%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-18 16:00
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.00%E -2.33%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.13%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.84%E -4.28%K -6.42%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-18 15:51
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.00%E -2.33%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.13%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.84%E -4.28%K -6.42%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-18 15:50
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.00%E -2.33%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.13%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.84%E -4.28%K -6.42%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-18 15:51
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.00%E -2.33%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.13%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.84%E -4.28%K -6.42%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-18 15:55
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -7.00%E -2.33%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -14.12%E -6.57%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -7.03%E -2.20%K -3.19%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-19 07:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -8.55%E -2.90%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.04%EV -4.53%E -1.90%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.34%EV -7.61%E -2.39%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-24 19:20
Betsson🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.91%EV -9.48%E -3.25%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.51%EV -3.33%E -1.38%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -8.48%E -2.69%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-24 19:20
NordicBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.91%EV -9.48%E -3.25%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.51%EV -3.33%E -1.38%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -8.48%E -2.69%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-24 19:20
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -10.72%E -3.72%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -8.13%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.03%E -2.20%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-20 22:50
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -10.72%E -3.72%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -12.12%E -5.51%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -5.57%E -1.71%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-18 15:59
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -11.65%E -4.09%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.40%EV -4.13%E -1.72%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.26%EV -8.48%E -2.69%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-24 19:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.38%EV -11.65%E -4.09%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.23%EV -16.12%E -7.67%K -14.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.39%EV -11.38%E -3.73%K -5.55%G +0.000%15.5%2026-05-18 16:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 29.65%EV -11.65%E -4.09%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.22%EV -18.11%E -8.84%K -17.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.14%EV -15.74%E -5.43%K -8.29%G +0.000%18.4%2026-05-18 16:05
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.29%EV -14.75%E -5.36%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.02%EV -14.12%E -6.57%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.68%EV -12.84%E -4.28%K -6.42%G +0.000%16.2%2026-05-18 16:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 30.55%EV -14.75%E -5.36%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 40.98%EV -18.11%E -8.84%K -17.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.48%EV -14.29%E -4.84%K -7.33%G +0.000%19.0%2026-05-18 16:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.88I 34.72%NM 29.84%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.93%2.94I 34.01%NM 29.23%16.4%2026-05-18 16:05