La escuela de los momios

Palmeiras v Mirassol

Inicio: 2026-03-15 21:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

60 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Palmeiras (Local)

Predicción 56.77%1.76momio equitativo
EV -4.05%
Ventaja -2.40%
Kelly -5.87%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.69

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.36%56.91%56.60%59.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.461.621.641.6968.49%61.70%60.98%59.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Mirassol (Visitante)

Predicción 18.67%5.36momio equitativo
EV +10.52%
Ventaja +1.78%
Kelly +2.14%
Crecimiento +0.225%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.92

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.37%18.53%18.82%19.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.405.105.005.9222.73%19.60%20.00%16.89%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.56%4.07momio equitativo
EV -1.77%
Ventaja -0.443%
Kelly -0.591%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.85%24.56%24.58%26.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.783.804.0031.25%26.42%26.32%25.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet1.66I 60.24%NM 58.39%EV -5.75%E -3.47%K -8.72%G +0.000%5.92I 16.89%NM 16.37%EV +10.52%E +1.78%K +2.14%G +0.225%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.24%EV -5.70%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-15 21:20
Svenska Spel1.63I 61.35%NM 59.14%EV -7.46%E -4.58%K -11.84%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.76%EV +7.34%E +1.28%K +1.55%G +0.114%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -1.77%E -0.443%K -0.591%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-15 21:00
ATG (SE)1.63I 61.35%NM 59.14%EV -7.46%E -4.58%K -11.84%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.76%EV +7.34%E +1.28%K +1.55%G +0.114%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -1.77%E -0.443%K -0.591%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-15 21:00
FanDuel1.59I 62.89%NM 58.74%EV -9.73%E -6.12%K -16.49%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.68%EV +4.54%E +0.811%K +0.988%G +0.045%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.58%EV -6.68%E -1.76%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 21:24
Grosvenor1.60I 62.50%NM 58.96%EV -9.16%E -5.73%K -15.27%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV +2.68%E +0.487%K +0.595%G +0.016%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -3.00%E -0.759%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-15 21:00
Casumo1.60I 62.50%NM 58.96%EV -9.16%E -5.73%K -15.27%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV +2.68%E +0.487%K +0.595%G +0.016%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -3.00%E -0.759%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-15 21:00
Unibet (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.96%EV -9.16%E -5.73%K -15.27%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV +2.68%E +0.487%K +0.595%G +0.016%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -3.00%E -0.759%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-15 21:00
Unibet (NL)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.96%EV -9.16%E -5.73%K -15.27%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV +2.68%E +0.487%K +0.595%G +0.016%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -3.00%E -0.759%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-15 21:00
Unibet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.96%EV -9.16%E -5.73%K -15.27%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV +2.68%E +0.487%K +0.595%G +0.016%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -3.00%E -0.759%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-15 21:00
betPARX1.60I 62.50%NM 58.96%EV -9.16%E -5.73%K -15.27%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV +2.68%E +0.487%K +0.595%G +0.016%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -3.00%E -0.759%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-15 21:00
SportsBet1.61I 62.11%NM 58.26%EV -8.59%E -5.34%K -14.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV +2.68%E +0.487%K +0.595%G +0.016%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -6.68%E -1.76%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-15 21:25
BetRivers1.57I 63.69%NM 59.24%EV -10.86%E -6.92%K -19.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV +2.68%E +0.487%K +0.595%G +0.016%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -4.23%E -1.08%K -1.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-15 21:00
LeoVegas1.56I 64.10%NM 59.03%EV -11.43%E -7.33%K -20.41%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.05%EV +0.811%E +0.150%K +0.184%G +0.001%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.92%EV -5.46%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-15 21:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 59.03%EV -11.43%E -7.33%K -20.41%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.05%EV +0.811%E +0.150%K +0.184%G +0.001%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.92%EV -5.46%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-15 21:00
Pinnacle1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.05%E -2.40%K -5.87%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV -1.06%E -0.199%K -0.246%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.68%EV -3.98%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-15 21:20
Coolbet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.66%EV -6.32%E -3.83%K -9.73%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.95%EV -1.06%E -0.199%K -0.246%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.39%EV -4.23%E -1.08%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-15 20:55
TABtouch1.54I 64.94%NM 58.97%EV -12.57%E -8.16%K -23.27%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.13%EV -1.06%E -0.199%K -0.246%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -6.68%E -1.76%K -2.39%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-15 21:10
Virgin Bet1.52I 65.79%NM 59.10%EV -13.70%E -9.02%K -26.35%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.95%EV -1.06%E -0.199%K -0.246%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -7.91%E -2.11%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-15 21:00
LiveScore Bet1.52I 65.79%NM 59.10%EV -13.70%E -9.02%K -26.35%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.95%EV -1.06%E -0.199%K -0.246%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -7.91%E -2.11%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-15 21:00
Fanatics1.67I 59.88%NM 57.62%EV -5.19%E -3.11%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.33%EV -1.99%E -0.379%K -0.468%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.06%EV -1.77%E -0.443%K -0.591%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-15 21:00
BetOnline.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 57.74%EV -6.32%E -3.83%K -9.73%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -1.99%E -0.379%K -0.468%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -3.00%E -0.759%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-15 21:00
LowVig.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 57.74%EV -6.32%E -3.83%K -9.73%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -1.99%E -0.379%K -0.468%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -3.00%E -0.759%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-15 21:00
BetAnything1.65I 60.61%NM 57.74%EV -6.32%E -3.83%K -9.73%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -1.99%E -0.379%K -0.468%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -3.00%E -0.759%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-15 21:00
Bet Victor1.61I 62.11%NM 58.16%EV -8.59%E -5.34%K -14.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.83%EV -1.99%E -0.379%K -0.468%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -4.23%E -1.08%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-15 21:25
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.47%EV -9.16%E -5.73%K -15.27%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -2.92%E -0.562%K -0.696%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -9.14%E -2.47%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 21:05
GTbets1.61I 62.11%NM 58.04%EV -8.59%E -5.34%K -14.09%G +0.000%5.19I 19.27%NM 18.00%EV -3.11%E -0.599%K -0.742%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -4.23%E -1.08%K -1.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 21:00
Bovada1.65I 60.61%NM 56.99%EV -6.32%E -3.83%K -9.73%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.26%EV -3.86%E -0.749%K -0.929%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.68%E -1.76%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-15 21:20
BetUS1.65I 60.61%NM 56.99%EV -6.32%E -3.83%K -9.73%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.26%EV -3.86%E -0.749%K -0.929%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.68%E -1.76%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-15 21:25
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 56.45%EV -4.05%E -2.40%K -5.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -6.66%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.46%EV -4.23%E -1.08%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-15 21:10
Coral1.67I 59.88%NM 56.75%EV -5.19%E -3.11%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -6.66%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -4.23%E -1.08%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-15 21:05
DraftKings1.67I 59.88%NM 56.57%EV -5.19%E -3.11%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -6.66%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV -5.46%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-15 21:05
Unibet (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.39%EV -5.19%E -3.11%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.66%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -6.68%E -1.76%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-15 21:05
Codere (IT)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.53%EV -5.75%E -3.47%K -8.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -6.66%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -6.68%E -1.76%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-15 21:10
Betway1.65I 60.61%NM 56.68%EV -6.32%E -3.83%K -9.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -6.66%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -6.68%E -1.76%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-15 21:25
Everygame1.65I 60.61%NM 56.50%EV -6.32%E -3.83%K -9.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -6.66%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -7.91%E -2.11%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-15 21:04
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -10.86%E -6.92%K -19.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -6.66%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -11.59%E -3.22%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-15 21:25
Sky Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 56.74%EV -10.86%E -6.92%K -19.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -6.66%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -14.05%E -4.01%K -5.62%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-15 21:20
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -4.62%E -2.75%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -7.59%E -1.53%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -9.14%E -2.47%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-15 21:20
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -4.62%E -2.75%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -7.59%E -1.53%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -9.14%E -2.47%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-15 21:20
Marathon Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.54%EV -6.32%E -3.83%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.04%EV -8.52%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.42%EV -6.19%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-15 21:20
Bet Right1.66I 60.24%NM 56.13%EV -5.75%E -3.47%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -8.52%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -7.91%E -2.11%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-15 21:25
Fliff1.57I 63.69%NM 57.13%EV -10.86%E -6.92%K -19.06%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.30%EV -8.52%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.57%EV -10.37%E -2.84%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-15 21:10
PlayUp1.65I 60.61%NM 55.99%EV -6.32%E -3.83%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.05%EV -9.46%E -1.95%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -9.14%E -2.47%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-15 21:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.30%EV -5.19%E -3.11%K -7.74%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -10.39%E -2.16%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -4.23%E -1.08%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-15 21:05
Betr (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.06%EV -6.32%E -3.83%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -10.39%E -2.16%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.67%EV -7.91%E -2.11%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-15 21:25
888sport1.65I 60.61%NM 55.49%EV -6.32%E -3.83%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -10.39%E -2.16%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -11.59%E -3.22%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-15 21:05
William Hill1.65I 60.61%NM 55.49%EV -6.32%E -3.83%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -10.39%E -2.16%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -11.59%E -3.22%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-15 21:05
Mr Green (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.49%EV -6.32%E -3.83%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -10.39%E -2.16%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -11.59%E -3.22%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-15 21:05
888sport (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.49%EV -6.32%E -3.83%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -10.39%E -2.16%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -11.59%E -3.22%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-15 21:05
PMU (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 57.47%EV -17.11%E -11.72%K -37.19%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.48%EV -10.39%E -2.16%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.05%EV -17.73%E -5.29%K -7.55%G +0.000%19.2%2026-03-15 21:25
Neds1.67I 59.88%NM 56.19%EV -5.19%E -3.11%K -7.74%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -11.32%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -4.23%E -1.08%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-15 21:05
Ladbrokes (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.19%EV -5.19%E -3.11%K -7.74%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -11.32%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -4.23%E -1.08%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-15 21:05
PointsBet (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -5.19%E -3.11%K -7.74%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -11.32%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -7.91%E -2.11%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-15 21:25
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 56.40%EV -8.03%E -4.95%K -12.94%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -11.32%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -7.91%E -2.11%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 21:04
Betclic (FR)1.59I 62.89%NM 56.29%EV -9.73%E -6.12%K -16.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.84%EV -11.32%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.86%EV -11.59%E -3.22%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-15 21:04
Winamax (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.47%EV -8.03%E -4.95%K -12.94%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.46%EV -12.26%E -2.61%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -6.68%E -1.76%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-15 21:05
Parions Sport (FR)1.57I 63.69%NM 56.49%EV -10.86%E -6.92%K -19.06%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.87%EV -12.26%E -2.61%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -11.59%E -3.22%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-15 21:10
Unibet (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 56.61%EV -12.00%E -7.74%K -21.82%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.67%EV -12.26%E -2.61%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.72%EV -12.82%E -3.61%K -5.03%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-15 21:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 54.36%EV -10.86%E -6.92%K -19.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.97%EV -15.99%E -3.55%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.67%EV -21.42%E -6.69%K -9.74%G +0.000%17.2%2026-03-15 21:10
Winamax (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 55.62%EV -10.30%E -6.52%K -17.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.97%EV -17.86%E -4.06%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.41%EV -11.59%E -3.22%K -4.46%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-15 21:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.59%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88%0.5%2026-03-15 21:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.59%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88%0.5%2026-03-15 21:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.53%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.79%0.8%2026-03-15 21:25
Matchbook1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.53%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.79%0.8%2026-03-15 21:25
Smarkets1.69I 59.17%NM 58.33%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.71%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.96%1.4%2026-03-15 21:25
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.69%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.54%1.9%2026-03-15 21:25