The School of Odds

Palmeiras v Internacional

2026-08-09 19:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Palmeiras (Local)

Prediction 61.10%1.64fair odd
EV -4.08%
Edge -2.60%
Kelly -7.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.18%61.08%61.09%62.59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.441.511.531.5769.44%66.05%65.36%63.69%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Internacional (Visit)

Prediction 14.61%6.85fair odd
EV -1.41%
Edge -0.209%
Kelly -0.245%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.03%14.64%14.58%16.68%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.206.096.006.7519.23%16.41%16.67%14.81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 24.30%4.12fair odd
EV -2.81%
Edge -0.703%
Kelly -0.938%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.16%24.28%24.33%25.49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.503.753.754.0028.57%26.65%26.67%25.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%EV -4.08%E -2.60%K -7.15%G +0.000%6.63I 15.08%NM 14.45%EV -3.16%E -0.477%K -0.562%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.51%EV -5.00%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-27 17:00
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.20%EV -5.30%E -3.42%K -9.63%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.58%EV -6.52%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -10.10%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-27 16:45
Betsson1.55I 64.52%NM 60.20%EV -5.30%E -3.42%K -9.63%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.58%EV -6.52%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -10.10%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-27 16:44
William Hill1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -5.30%E -3.42%K -9.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -12.36%E -2.06%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -12.53%E -3.48%K -4.82%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-27 15:25
LeoVegas1.55I 64.52%NM 59.18%EV -5.30%E -3.42%K -9.63%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -19.67%E -3.58%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -7.67%E -2.02%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-27 15:35
Coolbet1.53I 65.36%NM 62.14%EV -6.52%E -4.26%K -12.30%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.09%EV -1.41%E -0.209%K -0.245%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.77%EV -2.81%E -0.703%K -0.938%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 14:50
Fanatics1.53I 65.36%NM 61.81%EV -6.52%E -4.26%K -12.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.55%EV -5.06%E -0.779%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -2.81%E -0.703%K -0.938%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 15:10
Marathon Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 60.98%EV -6.52%E -4.26%K -12.30%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.47%EV -5.79%E -0.898%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -7.67%E -2.02%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-27 16:45
Codere (IT)1.53I 65.36%NM 60.33%EV -6.52%E -4.26%K -12.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -12.36%E -2.06%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -7.67%E -2.02%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-27 15:35
888sport1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -6.52%E -4.26%K -12.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -12.36%E -2.06%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -12.53%E -3.48%K -4.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-27 15:25
Mr Green (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -6.52%E -4.26%K -12.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -12.36%E -2.06%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -12.53%E -3.48%K -4.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-27 15:25
888sport (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -6.52%E -4.26%K -12.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -12.36%E -2.06%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -12.53%E -3.48%K -4.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-27 15:25
SportsBet1.52I 65.79%NM 62.30%EV -7.13%E -4.69%K -13.72%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.03%EV -1.41%E -0.209%K -0.245%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -2.81%E -0.703%K -0.938%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-27 14:45
Bet Right1.51I 66.23%NM 61.56%EV -7.74%E -5.13%K -15.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -5.06%E -0.779%K -0.920%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -6.46%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-27 14:45
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 62.59%EV -9.58%E -6.47%K -19.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -5.06%E -0.779%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -2.81%E -0.703%K -0.938%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-27 14:49
Winamax (DE)1.48I 67.57%NM 59.55%EV -9.58%E -6.47%K -19.95%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.63%EV -22.59%E -4.26%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.82%EV -10.10%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-27 16:50
Unibet (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 59.27%EV -10.19%E -6.93%K -21.67%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.84%EV -19.67%E -3.58%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.89%EV -14.96%E -4.27%K -5.98%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-27 15:35
Winamax (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 59.30%EV -10.80%E -7.40%K -23.47%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.65%EV -24.05%E -4.62%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.05%EV -12.53%E -3.48%K -4.82%G +0.000%15.5%2026-07-27 16:50
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 61.77%EV -12.02%E -8.35%K -27.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.82%EV -12.36%E -2.06%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.41%EV -7.67%E -2.02%K -2.74%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-27 15:09
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 59.76%EV -12.02%E -8.35%K -27.32%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.65%EV -19.67%E -3.58%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.59%EV -14.96%E -4.27%K -5.98%G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-27 14:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.46I 68.49%NM 58.83%5.40I 18.52%NM 15.91%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.26%16.4%2026-07-27 15:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-27 19:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-27 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-27 19:50