The School of Odds
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Palmeiras v Flamengo

2026-11-21 19:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Palmeiras (Local)

Prediction 39.92%2.51fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -1.75%
Kelly -3.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.75%39.92%39.92%40.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.232.312.302.4044.84%43.36%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Flamengo (Visit)

Prediction 32.50%3.08fair odd
EV -2.49%
Edge -0.829%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.20%32.50%32.50%32.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.862.853.0036.36%35.02%35.09%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.58%3.63fair odd
EV -2.09%
Edge -0.590%
Kelly -0.821%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.30%27.58%27.58%27.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.353.353.5531.25%29.85%29.85%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Palmeiras (Local): 39.92%; Flamengo (Visit): 32.50%; Draw: 27.58%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.63. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.55, with an expected value of -2.09%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.39%EV -4.20%E -1.75%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.31%EV -2.49%E -0.829%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.30%EV -2.09%E -0.590%K -0.821%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-11 09:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.39%EV -4.20%E -1.75%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.31%EV -2.49%E -0.829%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.30%EV -2.09%E -0.590%K -0.821%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-11 09:50
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.19%EV -7.39%E -3.19%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.38%EV -6.39%E -2.22%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-11 09:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.19%EV -7.39%E -3.19%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.38%EV -6.39%E -2.22%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-11 09:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.19%EV -7.39%E -3.19%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.38%EV -6.39%E -2.22%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-11 09:49
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.19%EV -7.39%E -3.19%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.38%EV -6.39%E -2.22%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-11 09:50
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -8.19%E -3.56%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -7.36%E -2.58%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -7.61%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-11 09:49
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.92%EV -8.99%E -3.94%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -8.99%E -3.21%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.58%EV -8.99%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-11 09:50
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.75%EV -8.99%E -3.94%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.37%EV -8.99%E -3.21%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -10.37%E -3.19%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-11 09:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.75%EV -8.99%E -3.94%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.37%EV -8.99%E -3.21%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -10.37%E -3.19%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-11 09:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.75%EV -8.99%E -3.94%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.37%EV -8.99%E -3.21%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -10.37%E -3.19%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-11 09:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.07%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -8.99%E -3.21%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -10.37%E -3.19%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.9%2026-11-11 09:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.88%EV -10.98%E -4.93%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.34%EV -10.61%E -3.86%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -11.75%E -3.67%K -5.34%G +0.000%12.5%2026-11-11 09:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.24I 80.65%NM 33.33%1.24I 80.65%NM 33.33%1.24I 80.65%NM 33.33%141.9%2026-11-11 09:30

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