La escuela de los momios

Palmeiras v Botafogo

Inicio: 2026-03-18 22:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

60 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Palmeiras (Local)

Predicción 62.68%1.60momio equitativo
EV -2.84%
Ventaja -1.83%
Kelly -5.17%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
59.76%62.61%62.79%65.23%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.321.471.481.5575.76%67.95%67.34%64.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Botafogo (Visitante)

Predicción 14.74%6.78momio equitativo
EV +4.07%
Ventaja +0.576%
Kelly +0.671%
Crecimiento +0.027%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.06

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.33%14.78%14.69%16.58%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.306.396.507.0618.87%15.65%15.38%14.16%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 22.58%4.43momio equitativo
EV +1.60%
Ventaja +0.355%
Kelly +0.456%
Crecimiento +0.007%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.22%22.61%22.52%24.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.504.114.104.5028.57%24.31%24.39%22.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet1.53I 65.36%NM 63.35%EV -4.10%E -2.68%K -7.73%G +0.000%7.06I 14.16%NM 13.73%EV +4.07%E +0.576%K +0.671%G +0.027%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.92%EV -4.50%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-18 21:55
Pinnacle1.53I 65.36%NM 63.12%EV -4.10%E -2.68%K -7.73%G +0.000%7.04I 14.20%NM 13.72%EV +3.77%E +0.536%K +0.624%G +0.024%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.16%EV -5.85%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-18 21:50
ATG (SE)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.92%EV -7.23%E -4.88%K -15.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.73%EV +3.18%E +0.455%K +0.530%G +0.017%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.35%EV +1.60%E +0.355%K +0.456%G +0.007%4.1%2026-03-18 21:40
Svenska Spel1.48I 67.57%NM 64.92%EV -7.23%E -4.88%K -15.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.73%EV +3.18%E +0.455%K +0.530%G +0.017%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.35%EV +1.60%E +0.355%K +0.456%G +0.007%4.1%2026-03-18 21:40
LowVig.ag1.51I 66.23%NM 63.13%EV -5.35%E -3.54%K -10.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.62%EV +3.18%E +0.455%K +0.530%G +0.017%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%EV -7.43%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-18 21:50
BetOnline.ag1.51I 66.23%NM 63.13%EV -5.35%E -3.54%K -10.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.62%EV +3.18%E +0.455%K +0.530%G +0.017%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%EV -7.43%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-18 21:50
Unibet1.45I 68.97%NM 64.91%EV -9.11%E -6.28%K -20.24%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +3.18%E +0.455%K +0.530%G +0.017%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.64%EV -1.79%E -0.412%K -0.534%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-18 21:40
Unibet (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.07%EV -9.74%E -6.76%K -22.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV +3.18%E +0.455%K +0.530%G +0.017%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.54%EV -1.79%E -0.412%K -0.534%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-18 21:40
Grosvenor1.44I 69.44%NM 65.07%EV -9.74%E -6.76%K -22.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV +3.18%E +0.455%K +0.530%G +0.017%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.54%EV -1.79%E -0.412%K -0.534%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-18 21:40
Casumo1.44I 69.44%NM 65.07%EV -9.74%E -6.76%K -22.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV +3.18%E +0.455%K +0.530%G +0.017%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.54%EV -1.79%E -0.412%K -0.534%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-18 21:40
Unibet (NL)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.07%EV -9.74%E -6.76%K -22.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV +3.18%E +0.455%K +0.530%G +0.017%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.54%EV -1.79%E -0.412%K -0.534%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-18 21:40
betPARX1.44I 69.44%NM 65.07%EV -9.74%E -6.76%K -22.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV +3.18%E +0.455%K +0.530%G +0.017%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.54%EV -1.79%E -0.412%K -0.534%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-18 21:40
BetRivers1.43I 69.93%NM 65.23%EV -10.36%E -7.25%K -24.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV +3.18%E +0.455%K +0.530%G +0.017%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.44%EV -1.79%E -0.412%K -0.534%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-18 21:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.43I 69.93%NM 64.75%EV -10.36%E -7.25%K -24.10%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.72%EV -0.503%E -0.075%K -0.088%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -2.92%E -0.679%K -0.885%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-18 21:40
LeoVegas1.42I 70.42%NM 64.75%EV -10.99%E -7.74%K -26.17%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.62%EV -0.503%E -0.075%K -0.088%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV -4.05%E -0.953%K -1.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-18 21:40
TABtouch1.40I 71.43%NM 64.90%EV -12.24%E -8.75%K -30.61%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -0.503%E -0.075%K -0.088%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV -5.18%E -1.23%K -1.62%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-18 21:40
LiveScore Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 65.23%EV -13.50%E -9.78%K -35.52%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.34%EV -0.503%E -0.075%K -0.088%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.43%EV -5.18%E -1.23%K -1.62%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-18 21:40
Virgin Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 65.23%EV -13.50%E -9.78%K -35.52%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.34%EV -0.503%E -0.075%K -0.088%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.43%EV -5.18%E -1.23%K -1.62%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-18 21:40
Coolbet1.52I 65.79%NM 62.59%EV -4.72%E -3.11%K -9.08%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.20%EV -1.24%E -0.185%K -0.218%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.21%EV -7.43%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-18 20:50
GTbets1.49I 67.11%NM 63.19%EV -6.60%E -4.43%K -13.47%G +0.000%6.52I 15.34%NM 14.44%EV -3.89%E -0.597%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.37%EV -4.95%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-18 21:50
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.98%EV -5.98%E -3.98%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -4.19%E -0.644%K -0.761%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -5.18%E -1.23%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-18 21:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.98%EV -5.98%E -3.98%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -4.19%E -0.644%K -0.761%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -5.18%E -1.23%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-18 21:20
BetMGM1.50I 66.67%NM 62.98%EV -5.98%E -3.98%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -4.19%E -0.644%K -0.761%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -5.18%E -1.23%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-18 21:19
Coral1.50I 66.67%NM 62.98%EV -5.98%E -3.98%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -4.19%E -0.644%K -0.761%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -5.18%E -1.23%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-18 21:20
Bet Victor1.50I 66.67%NM 62.98%EV -5.98%E -3.98%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -4.19%E -0.644%K -0.761%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -5.18%E -1.23%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-18 21:35
Unibet (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.78%EV -7.23%E -4.88%K -15.06%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.52%EV -4.19%E -0.644%K -0.761%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.70%EV -1.79%E -0.412%K -0.534%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-18 21:10
DraftKings1.51I 66.23%NM 62.48%EV -5.35%E -3.54%K -10.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -4.19%E -0.644%K -0.761%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -7.43%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-18 21:55
Fanatics1.48I 67.57%NM 63.62%EV -7.23%E -4.88%K -15.06%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.49%EV -4.19%E -0.644%K -0.761%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -2.92%E -0.679%K -0.885%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-18 20:55
Bovada1.51I 66.23%NM 62.12%EV -5.35%E -3.54%K -10.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.43%EV -4.19%E -0.644%K -0.761%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-18 21:49
BetAnything1.51I 66.23%NM 62.12%EV -5.35%E -3.54%K -10.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.43%EV -4.19%E -0.644%K -0.761%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-18 21:50
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 63.29%EV -7.23%E -4.88%K -15.06%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -4.19%E -0.644%K -0.761%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -5.18%E -1.23%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-18 21:39
Everygame1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -5.98%E -3.98%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -4.19%E -0.644%K -0.761%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-18 21:55
BetUS1.46I 68.49%NM 63.26%EV -8.48%E -5.81%K -18.44%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.21%EV -4.19%E -0.644%K -0.761%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.53%EV -7.43%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-18 21:35
Ladbrokes (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.49%EV -5.98%E -3.98%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -5.66%E -0.885%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -7.43%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-18 21:20
Neds1.50I 66.67%NM 62.49%EV -5.98%E -3.98%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -5.66%E -0.885%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -7.43%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-18 21:20
Betr (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -5.98%E -3.98%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -7.87%E -1.26%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-18 21:35
PointsBet (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -5.98%E -3.98%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -7.87%E -1.26%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-18 21:35
Codere (IT)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.86%EV -5.98%E -3.98%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.21%EV -8.61%E -1.39%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -2.92%E -0.679%K -0.885%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-18 21:35
Marathon Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.20%EV -5.98%E -3.98%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.05%EV -8.61%E -1.39%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -7.43%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-18 21:50
Tipico (DE)1.45I 68.97%NM 63.33%EV -9.11%E -6.28%K -20.24%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.81%EV -8.61%E -1.39%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.86%EV -5.18%E -1.23%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-18 20:45
Fliff1.43I 69.93%NM 62.97%EV -10.36%E -7.25%K -24.10%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.52%EV -8.61%E -1.39%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.51%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-18 21:45
Betway1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.10%E -2.68%K -7.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -11.56%E -1.93%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-18 21:35
Bet Right1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -5.98%E -3.98%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -11.56%E -1.93%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -7.43%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-18 21:35
PlayUp1.52I 65.79%NM 60.67%EV -4.72%E -3.11%K -9.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -11.56%E -1.93%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -13.08%E -3.40%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-18 21:35
888sport1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -5.98%E -3.98%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -11.56%E -1.93%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -14.21%E -3.74%K -5.07%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-18 21:50
William Hill1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -5.98%E -3.98%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -11.56%E -1.93%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -14.21%E -3.74%K -5.07%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-18 21:49
888sport (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -5.98%E -3.98%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -11.56%E -1.93%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -14.21%E -3.74%K -5.07%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-18 21:50
Mr Green (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -5.98%E -3.98%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -11.56%E -1.93%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -14.21%E -3.74%K -5.07%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-18 21:50
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -9.74%E -6.76%K -22.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -11.56%E -1.93%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-18 21:40
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -9.74%E -6.76%K -22.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -11.56%E -1.93%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-18 21:35
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.42%EV -2.84%E -1.83%K -5.17%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.87%EV -13.03%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -10.82%E -2.74%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-18 21:50
Betsson1.55I 64.52%NM 60.42%EV -2.84%E -1.83%K -5.17%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.87%EV -13.03%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -10.82%E -2.74%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-18 21:50
Betclic (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 62.43%EV -10.36%E -7.25%K -24.10%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.53%EV -15.24%E -2.65%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.04%EV -8.56%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-18 21:38
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 61.74%EV -9.74%E -6.76%K -22.13%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.46%EV -15.24%E -2.65%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -11.95%E -3.06%K -4.12%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-18 21:40
Parions Sport (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 62.67%EV -12.24%E -8.75%K -30.61%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.39%EV -15.98%E -2.80%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.94%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-18 21:35
PMU (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 62.96%EV -17.26%E -13.07%K -53.93%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 14.58%EV -15.98%E -2.80%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.46%EV -16.47%E -4.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%20.3%2026-03-18 21:40
Unibet (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 62.59%EV -12.24%E -8.75%K -30.61%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 15.51%EV -16.72%E -2.96%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.91%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-18 21:50
Winamax (DE)1.46I 68.49%NM 62.49%EV -8.48%E -5.81%K -18.44%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.29%EV -17.45%E -3.12%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.22%EV -2.92%E -0.679%K -0.885%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-18 21:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 59.76%EV -9.74%E -6.76%K -22.13%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.65%EV -18.93%E -3.44%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.59%EV -20.98%E -5.99%K -8.39%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-18 21:40
Winamax (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 61.45%EV -10.36%E -7.25%K -24.10%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.58%EV -21.88%E -4.13%K -5.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.97%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-18 21:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.71%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.20%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09%0.6%2026-03-18 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.71%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.20%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09%0.6%2026-03-18 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.71%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.20%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09%0.6%2026-03-18 21:55
Matchbook1.55I 64.52%NM 64.11%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.80%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%0.6%2026-03-18 21:55
Kalshi1.54I 64.94%NM 63.72%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.71%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.57%1.9%2026-03-18 21:30
Smarkets1.55I 64.52%NM 63.28%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.42%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.29%1.9%2026-03-18 21:50