赔率学院赔率.net
默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
+ 新建模型所有模型

Palmeiras v Bahia

开赛时间： 2026-10-09 00:30 UTC

最终结果： Palmeiras 1–0 Bahia

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

59 家博彩公司 (20 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Palmeiras (主队)

预测 60.63%1.65公平赔率
EV -4.20%
优势 -2.66%
Kelly -7.25%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.58

博彩公司预测分布
58.91%60.65%60.61%62.66%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.441.531.541.5869.44%65.31%64.94%63.29%最小值均值中位数最大值

Bahia (客队)

预测 17.34%5.77公平赔率
EV +0.554%
优势 +0.096%
Kelly +0.116%
增长率 +0.001%

假设最高赔率为 5.80

博彩公司预测分布
16.27%17.37%17.29%18.39%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
4.755.335.405.8021.05%18.75%18.52%17.24%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 22.03%4.54公平赔率
EV -0.856%
优势 -0.190%
Kelly -0.245%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 4.50

博彩公司预测分布
21.08%21.98%22.10%23.90%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
3.804.194.204.5026.32%23.84%23.81%22.22%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Palmeiras (主队)：60.63%；Bahia (客队)：17.34%；平局：22.03%。 对于“Bahia (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为5.77。 当时有1家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为5.80，对应+0.554%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (59 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队 ▼平局利润率更新时间
SportsBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.90%EV -6.63%E -4.30%K -12.27%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.44%EV +0.554%E +0.096%K +0.116%G +0.001%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%EV -3.06%E -0.695%K -0.900%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-25 01:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.65%EV -4.81%E -3.06%K -8.44%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.83%EV -0.312%E -0.054%K -0.066%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.51%EV -0.856%E -0.190%K -0.245%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-05 09:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.65%EV -4.81%E -3.06%K -8.44%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.83%EV -0.312%E -0.054%K -0.066%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.51%EV -0.856%E -0.190%K -0.245%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-05 09:25
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -6.02%E -3.89%K -10.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.54%EV -0.312%E -0.054%K -0.066%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV -5.26%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 16:39
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.66%EV -10.27%E -6.94%K -21.39%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.27%EV -1.18%E -0.207%K -0.251%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -3.06%E -0.695%K -0.900%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-25 01:25
1xBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.75%EV -4.20%E -2.66%K -7.25%G +0.000%5.62I 17.79%NM 17.08%EV -2.57%E -0.457%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.17%EV -4.60%E -1.06%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-27 15:05
GTbets🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.57%EV -5.42%E -3.47%K -9.67%G +0.000%5.58I 17.92%NM 16.93%EV -3.26%E -0.584%K -0.712%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -7.47%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 00:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.18%EV -5.42%E -3.47%K -9.67%G +0.000%5.57I 17.95%NM 17.13%EV -3.43%E -0.616%K -0.751%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.69%EV -3.06%E -0.695%K -0.900%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-05 02:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.18%EV -5.42%E -3.47%K -9.67%G +0.000%5.57I 17.95%NM 17.13%EV -3.43%E -0.616%K -0.751%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.69%EV -3.06%E -0.695%K -0.900%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-05 02:20
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.59%EV -4.81%E -3.06%K -8.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.65%E -0.845%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -5.26%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-25 01:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.73%EV -6.02%E -3.89%K -10.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -4.65%E -0.845%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.15%EV -6.36%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-05 06:25
Bet Right🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.88%EV -7.23%E -4.73%K -13.65%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -4.65%E -0.845%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -7.47%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-02 00:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.20%EV -7.84%E -5.16%K -15.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -4.65%E -0.845%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -6.36%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-04 00:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.04%EV -7.84%E -5.16%K -15.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.87%EV -4.65%E -0.845%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -7.47%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-02 00:35
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.56%EV -7.23%E -4.73%K -13.65%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.85%EV -4.65%E -0.845%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -9.67%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-22 09:25
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.56%EV -7.23%E -4.73%K -13.65%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.85%EV -4.65%E -0.845%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -9.67%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-22 09:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -9.05%E -6.04%K -18.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -4.65%E -0.845%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -4.60%E -1.06%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 10:30
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -7.23%E -4.73%K -13.65%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -4.65%E -0.845%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -11.87%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-29 00:35
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -9.05%E -6.04%K -18.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -4.65%E -0.845%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -7.47%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-04 00:30
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.37%EV -6.02%E -3.89%K -10.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -4.65%E -0.845%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -15.18%E -3.94%K -5.33%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-05 09:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.15%EV -10.87%E -7.40%K -23.13%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.61%EV -4.65%E -0.845%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV -5.26%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-05 00:54
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.82%EV -5.42%E -3.47%K -9.67%G +0.000%5.48I 18.25%NM 17.31%EV -4.99%E -0.911%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 21.86%EV -4.38%E -1.01%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-05 09:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.79%EV -7.23%E -4.73%K -13.65%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.07%EV -5.51%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.14%EV -7.47%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-27 15:02
LeoVegas🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.38%EV -6.02%E -3.89%K -10.95%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -6.38%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -7.47%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-05 06:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.70%EV -6.63%E -4.30%K -12.27%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -6.38%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -6.36%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-05 09:25
Casumo🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.70%EV -6.63%E -4.30%K -12.27%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -6.38%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -6.36%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-05 09:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.70%EV -6.63%E -4.30%K -12.27%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -6.38%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -6.36%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-05 09:20
Grosvenor🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.70%EV -6.63%E -4.30%K -12.27%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -6.38%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -6.36%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-05 09:25
Unibet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.70%EV -6.63%E -4.30%K -12.27%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -6.38%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -6.36%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-05 09:25
betPARX🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.70%EV -6.63%E -4.30%K -12.27%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -6.38%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -6.36%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-05 09:23
Codere (IT)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.54%EV -6.63%E -4.30%K -12.27%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -6.38%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -7.47%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-05 14:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.69%EV -7.23%E -4.73%K -13.65%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.20%EV -6.38%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.11%EV -7.47%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-05 06:29
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.89%EV -6.02%E -3.89%K -10.95%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.19%EV -6.38%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.92%EV -10.77%E -2.66%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-23 14:35
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.96%EV -6.02%E -3.89%K -10.95%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.37%EV -7.25%E -1.35%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -9.67%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-23 14:34
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.18%EV -4.81%E -3.06%K -8.44%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.00%EV -8.98%E -1.71%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.82%EV -4.60%E -1.06%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-25 01:24
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.18%EV -4.81%E -3.06%K -8.44%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.00%EV -8.98%E -1.71%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.82%EV -4.60%E -1.06%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-25 01:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -4.81%E -3.06%K -8.44%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -8.98%E -1.71%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -7.47%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-25 01:19
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.80%EV -7.23%E -4.73%K -13.65%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -8.98%E -1.71%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.48%EV -4.60%E -1.06%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-05 11:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.54%EV -9.66%E -6.48%K -19.71%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.18%EV -8.98%E -1.71%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.27%EV -10.77%E -2.66%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-05 06:24
Bovada🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.14%EV -5.42%E -3.47%K -9.67%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.04%EV -9.85%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -5.26%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 11:08
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.14%EV -5.42%E -3.47%K -9.67%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.04%EV -9.85%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -5.26%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 11:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -4.81%E -3.06%K -8.44%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -9.85%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -7.47%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-25 01:19
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -4.81%E -3.06%K -8.44%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -9.85%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -7.47%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-25 01:19
PMU (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.61%EV -9.66%E -6.48%K -19.71%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -9.85%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -9.67%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-23 01:50
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.08%EV -8.45%E -5.59%K -16.56%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.79%EV -11.58%E -2.27%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -9.67%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-05 09:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.24%EV -9.05%E -6.04%K -18.11%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.72%EV -11.58%E -2.27%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -9.67%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-05 09:25
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.24%EV -9.05%E -6.04%K -18.11%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.72%EV -11.58%E -2.27%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -9.67%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-05 09:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.24%EV -9.05%E -6.04%K -18.11%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.72%EV -11.58%E -2.27%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -9.67%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-05 09:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.24%EV -9.05%E -6.04%K -18.11%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.72%EV -11.58%E -2.27%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -9.67%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-05 09:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.89%EV -12.69%E -8.81%K -28.84%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.19%EV -11.58%E -2.27%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.92%EV -11.87%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-05 06:24
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.71%EV -6.63%E -4.30%K -12.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -13.32%E -2.66%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -7.47%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-05 11:10
William Hill🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.91%EV -6.02%E -3.89%K -10.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -13.32%E -2.66%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -11.87%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-25 01:25
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.23%E -4.73%K -13.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -13.32%E -2.66%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -11.87%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-25 01:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.23%E -4.73%K -13.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -13.32%E -2.66%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -11.87%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-25 01:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.23%E -4.73%K -13.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -13.32%E -2.66%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -11.87%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-25 01:24
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -9.05%E -6.04%K -18.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -13.32%E -2.66%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -7.47%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-21 07:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.97%EV -9.66%E -6.48%K -19.71%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.24%EV -15.05%E -3.07%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.79%EV -9.67%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-05 06:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 59.58%EV -10.27%E -6.94%K -21.39%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.37%EV -16.78%E -3.50%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.05%EV -11.87%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-05 06:24
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 59.45%EV -12.69%E -8.81%K -28.84%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.02%EV -17.65%E -3.72%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.53%EV -16.28%E -4.28%K -5.81%G +0.000%16.8%2026-09-25 01:38
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (3)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.73%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.69%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.57%1.9%2026-10-05 13:00
Matchbook◎1.56I 64.10%NM 60.54%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.49%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%5.9%2026-10-05 13:35
Smarkets◎1.48I 67.57%NM 59.68%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.67%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%13.2%2026-10-05 06:25