The School of Odds

Palmeiras v Atletico Mineiro

2026-07-26 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Palmeiras (Local)

Prediction 59.37%1.68fair odd
EV -3.83%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -6.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.21%59.25%59.28%60.55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.461.561.571.6268%64%64%62%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Atletico Mineiro (Visit)

Prediction 15.92%6.28fair odd
EV -1.77%
Edge -0.287%
Kelly -0.343%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.54%15.98%15.82%17.36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.905.615.506.1720%18%18%16%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 24.71%4.05fair odd
EV -1.14%
Edge -0.285%
Kelly -0.381%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.57%24.77%24.89%26.15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.353.663.704.0030%27%27%25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.62I 61.73%NM 59.33%EV -3.83%E -2.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%6.17I 16.21%NM 15.58%EV -1.77%E -0.287%K -0.343%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.09%EV -5.34%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-17 19:24
Coolbet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.44%EV -5.02%E -3.13%K -8.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.48%E -0.746%K -0.896%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -4.85%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 15:15
William Hill1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -5.02%E -3.13%K -8.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -13.50%E -3.86%K -5.40%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-17 19:09
888sport1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -5.02%E -3.13%K -8.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -13.50%E -3.86%K -5.40%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-17 19:09
Mr Green (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -5.02%E -3.13%K -8.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -13.50%E -3.86%K -5.40%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-17 19:09
888sport (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -5.02%E -3.13%K -8.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -13.50%E -3.86%K -5.40%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-17 19:09
SportsBet1.59I 62.89%NM 59.78%EV -5.61%E -3.53%K -9.51%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.84%EV -4.48%E -0.746%K -0.896%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.37%EV -3.61%E -0.926%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 15:14
NordicBet1.58I 63.29%NM 59.00%EV -6.20%E -3.93%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.80%EV -6.07%E -1.03%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -8.56%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 19:24
Betsson1.58I 63.29%NM 59.00%EV -6.20%E -3.93%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.80%EV -6.07%E -1.03%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -8.56%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 19:24
Bet Right1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV -6.20%E -3.93%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.20%EV -8.46%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -7.32%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 15:15
Fanatics1.57I 63.69%NM 60.04%EV -6.80%E -4.33%K -11.92%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -8.46%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -1.14%E -0.285%K -0.381%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-17 15:29
Marathon Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.39%EV -6.80%E -4.33%K -11.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -4.48%E -0.746%K -0.896%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.07%EV -8.06%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-17 19:24
betfred_uk1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -6.80%E -4.33%K -11.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -7.32%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-17 15:12
Codere (IT)1.56I 64.10%NM 59.15%EV -7.39%E -4.74%K -13.20%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.91%EV -7.66%E -1.32%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -8.56%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-17 19:19
LeoVegas1.55I 64.52%NM 58.80%EV -7.98%E -5.15%K -14.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.57%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -8.56%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-17 19:19
FanDuel1.53I 65.36%NM 60.55%EV -9.17%E -5.99%K -17.30%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.70%EV -6.07%E -1.03%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -3.61%E -0.926%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-17 15:13
Paddy Power1.53I 65.36%NM 59.31%EV -9.17%E -5.99%K -17.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -12.44%E -2.26%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -7.32%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-17 15:18
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 57.85%EV -10.95%E -7.30%K -21.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.36%EV -20.40%E -4.08%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.79%EV -13.50%E -3.86%K -5.40%G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-17 15:14
Winamax (DE)1.49I 67.11%NM 58.61%EV -11.55%E -7.75%K -23.56%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.79%EV -17.21%E -3.31%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.60%EV -12.26%E -3.45%K -4.81%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-17 19:19
Unibet (FR)1.48I 67.57%NM 58.32%EV -12.14%E -8.20%K -25.29%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.29%EV -15.62%E -2.95%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.39%EV -15.97%E -4.70%K -6.65%G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-17 19:19
Betclic (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 58.67%EV -12.73%E -8.66%K -27.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 15.97%EV -14.03%E -2.60%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.36%EV -15.97%E -4.70%K -6.65%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-17 19:18
Winamax (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 57.68%EV -13.33%E -9.13%K -28.97%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.19%EV -21.99%E -4.49%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.14%EV -17.21%E -5.14%K -7.32%G +0.000%18.8%2026-07-17 19:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.49I 67.11%NM 57.54%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.49%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.98%16.6%2026-07-17 19:19