Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Mirassol v Internacional

2026-10-16 23:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Resultado del partido

45 corredores (10 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Mirassol (Local)

Predicción 41.68%2.40momio equitativo
EV -2.88%
Ventaja -1.23%
Kelly -2.16%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.52%41.69%41.73%44.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.942.202.202.3351.55%45.35%45.45%42.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Internacional (Visitante)

Predicción 30.63%3.27momio equitativo
EV -0.465%
Ventaja -0.143%
Kelly -0.206%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.05%30.62%30.62%31.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.753.033.003.2536.36%33.06%33.33%30.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.69%3.61momio equitativo
EV -2.53%
Ventaja -0.719%
Kelly -1.00%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.52

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.78%27.68%27.65%28.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.343.353.5232.26%29.96%29.85%28.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Mirassol (Local): 41.68%; Internacional (Visitante): 30.63%; Empate: 27.69%. Para Internacional (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.27. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 3.25, con un valor esperado de -0.465%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.14%EV -2.88%E -1.23%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.63%EV -7.20%E -2.38%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.23%EV -2.53%E -0.719%K -1.00%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 14:00
GTbets🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.01%EV -4.13%E -1.79%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.33%EV -7.81%E -2.60%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.66%EV -5.58%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.13%E -1.79%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.85%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-10 14:01
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.13%E -1.79%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.85%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-10 14:01
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.13%E -1.79%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.85%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-10 13:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.76%EV -4.13%E -1.79%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 13:59
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.76%EV -4.13%E -1.79%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 14:00
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -3.09%E -0.882%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 14:00
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -3.09%E -0.882%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 13:59
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.85%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 14:01
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 13:59
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.85%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 13:59
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.85%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 13:59
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.85%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 13:58
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.62%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 14:00
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-10 14:00
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-10 14:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-10 14:01
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-10 14:00
MyBookie.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.31%EV -6.63%E -2.96%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.64%EV -7.51%E -2.49%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.62%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 13:59
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.04%EV -7.04%E -3.16%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.53%EV -0.465%E -0.143%K -0.206%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.42%EV -3.09%E -0.882%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.04%EV -7.04%E -3.16%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.53%EV -0.465%E -0.143%K -0.206%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.42%EV -3.09%E -0.882%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 14:00
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -8.30%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -4.47%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 14:00
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -8.30%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -5.85%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-10 13:58
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -8.30%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -5.85%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -9.13%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -3.53%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 14:00
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -9.13%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -3.53%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 14:01
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -9.13%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -3.53%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 14:01
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -9.13%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -3.53%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 14:01
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -9.13%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -3.53%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 14:00
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -9.13%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -3.53%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 14:01
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -9.13%E -4.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -3.53%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 14:00
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -3.53%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -8.62%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-10 14:01
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.85%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-10 14:00
BetRivers🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.26%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-10 14:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.85%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.03%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 30.29%EV -9.04%E -3.04%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.86%EV -10.56%E -3.27%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-10 14:00
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.03%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -8.62%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-10 13:59
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.37%EV -10.80%E -5.05%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.73%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-10 13:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.37%EV -10.80%E -5.05%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.73%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-10 14:00
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.37%EV -10.80%E -5.05%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.73%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-10 14:01
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.39%EV -11.63%E -5.49%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-10 14:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.56%EV -12.46%E -5.94%K -11.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.17%EV -14.25%E -5.09%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -11.39%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000%14.6%2026-10-10 14:00
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.20%EV -12.46%E -5.94%K -11.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.90%EV -14.25%E -5.09%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -14.16%E -4.57%K -6.74%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-10 13:57
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.15%EV -12.46%E -5.94%K -11.33%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.42%EV -15.78%E -5.74%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.43%EV -12.78%E -4.06%K -5.94%G +0.000%15.7%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 44.17%EV -19.13%E -9.86%K -20.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.05%EV -9.65%E -3.27%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.78%EV -11.39%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-10 14:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎2.14I 46.73%NM 41.10%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.54%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.37%13.7%2026-10-10 14:00
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 40.85%2.86I 34.97%NM 30.43%3.03I 33.00%NM 28.72%14.9%2026-10-10 18:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 33.13%1.12I 89.29%NM 33.13%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.73%169.5%2026-10-10 14:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 33.13%1.12I 89.29%NM 33.13%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.73%169.5%2026-10-10 14:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 33.13%1.12I 89.29%NM 33.13%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.73%169.5%2026-10-10 14:00