Mirassol v Grêmio

Kickoff: 2026-07-22 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

45%

27%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Mirassol (Local)

Prediction 44.92%2.23fair odd

EV -2.98%

Edge -1.38%

Kelly -2.57%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.04%44.85%44.92%45.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.872.022.052.1653%50%49%46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Grêmio (Visit)

Prediction 26.63%3.76fair odd

EV -0.148%

Edge -0.039%

Kelly -0.054%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

25.27%26.45%26.63%27.91%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

3.103.343.303.7532%30%30%27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.46%3.51fair odd

EV -3.25%

Edge -0.955%

Kelly -1.35%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.72%28.70%28.46%30.45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.703.133.153.4037%32%32%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet	2.16I 46.30%NM 44.47%EV -2.98%E -1.38%K -2.57%G +0.000%	3.52I 28.41%NM 27.29%EV -6.27%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.25%EV -3.25%E -0.955%K -1.35%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-06-09 12:59
SportsBet	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -3.43%E -1.60%K -2.98%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -6.80%E -1.94%K -2.72%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -6.09%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-08 02:49
BetMGM	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.12%EV -5.68%E -2.70%K -5.16%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -0.148%E -0.039%K -0.054%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -8.94%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-06-04 03:19
FanDuel	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.68%E -2.70%K -5.16%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.80%E -1.94%K -2.72%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.09%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-06-08 02:47
Marathon Bet	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -5.68%E -2.70%K -5.16%G +0.000%	3.42I 29.24%NM 27.29%EV -8.93%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.09%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-06-09 12:49
Codere (IT)	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.92%E -3.86%K -7.54%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -6.80%E -1.94%K -2.72%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -7.52%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-06-03 18:40
Paddy Power	2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -7.92%E -3.86%K -7.54%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -12.13%E -3.68%K -5.27%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -11.78%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%	11.3%	2026-06-08 02:49
Sky Bet	2.00I 50.00%NM 43.26%EV -10.17%E -5.08%K -10.17%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -17.46%E -5.63%K -8.31%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 28.84%EV -14.63%E -4.88%K -7.31%G +0.000%	15.6%	2026-06-08 02:49
Winamax (DE)	1.94I 51.55%NM 45.00%EV -12.86%E -6.63%K -13.68%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 27.28%EV -14.79%E -4.62%K -6.72%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 27.72%EV -10.36%E -3.29%K -4.82%G +0.000%	14.5%	2026-06-03 18:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)	1.91I 52.36%NM 43.04%EV -14.21%E -7.44%K -15.62%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 26.52%EV -17.46%E -5.63%K -8.31%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 30.45%EV -23.17%E -8.58%K -13.63%G +0.000%	21.7%	2026-06-08 02:49
Unibet (FR)	1.90I 52.63%NM 44.90%EV -14.66%E -7.72%K -16.29%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 26.66%EV -14.79%E -4.62%K -6.72%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 28.44%EV -14.63%E -4.88%K -7.31%G +0.000%	17.2%	2026-06-03 18:40
Winamax (FR)	1.88I 53.19%NM 44.78%EV -15.56%E -8.28%K -17.68%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 27.16%EV -17.46%E -5.63%K -8.31%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 28.06%EV -14.63%E -4.88%K -7.31%G +0.000%	18.8%	2026-06-03 18:39
Betclic (FR)	1.87I 53.48%NM 45.30%EV -16.01%E -8.56%K -18.40%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 26.47%EV -14.79%E -4.62%K -6.72%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 28.23%EV -14.63%E -4.88%K -7.31%G +0.000%	18.1%	2026-06-03 18:38

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.