The School of Odds

Mirassol v Grêmio

2026-07-22 20:00 — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (4 in analysis)

Option 1: Mirassol (Local)

Odds
1.8753.48%Min
2.0249.60%Mean
2.0548.78%Median
2.1646.30%Max
Consensus probabilities
43.04%2.324Min
45.30%2.208Max
44.85%2.230Mean
44.92%2.226Median
44.92%2.226IQM
44.85%2.229Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.16 under the IQM model: 44.92%

EV -2.98%Edge -1.38%Kelly -2.57%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Grêmio (Visit)

Odds
3.1032.26%Min
3.3429.96%Mean
3.3030.30%Median
3.7526.67%Max
Consensus probabilities
25.27%3.958Min
27.91%3.583Max
26.45%3.780Mean
26.63%3.756Median
26.63%3.756IQM
26.39%3.789Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.75 under the IQM model: 26.63%

EV -0.148%Edge -0.039%Kelly -0.054%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
2.7037.04%Min
3.1331.94%Mean
3.1531.75%Median
3.4029.41%Max
Consensus probabilities
27.72%3.608Min
30.45%3.285Max
28.70%3.484Mean
28.46%3.514Median
28.46%3.514IQM
28.75%3.478Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.40 under the IQM model: 28.46%

EV -3.25%Edge -0.955%Kelly -1.35%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerMirassol (Local) ▼Grêmio (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.16I 46.30% NM 44.47%EV -2.98% E -1.38% K -2.57% G +0.000%3.52I 28.41% NM 27.29%EV -6.27% E -1.78% K -2.49% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 28.25%EV -3.25% E -0.955% K -1.35% G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-09 12:59
SportsBet2.15I 46.51% NM 44.13%EV -3.43% E -1.60% K -2.98% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 27.11%EV -6.80% E -1.94% K -2.72% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 28.75%EV -6.09% E -1.85% K -2.65% G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-08 02:49
BetMGM2.10I 47.62% NM 45.12%EV -5.68% E -2.70% K -5.16% G +0.000%3.75I 26.67% NM 25.27%EV -0.148% E -0.039% K -0.054% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.61%EV -8.94% E -2.79% K -4.06% G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-04 03:19
FanDuel2.10I 47.62% NM 44.72%EV -5.68% E -2.70% K -5.16% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.83%EV -6.80% E -1.94% K -2.72% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 28.46%EV -6.09% E -1.85% K -2.65% G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-08 02:47
Marathon Bet2.10I 47.62% NM 44.44%EV -5.68% E -2.70% K -5.16% G +0.000%3.42I 29.24% NM 27.29%EV -8.93% E -2.61% K -3.69% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 28.28%EV -6.09% E -1.85% K -2.65% G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-09 12:49
Codere (IT)2.05I 48.78% NM 45.12%EV -7.92% E -3.86% K -7.54% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.43%EV -6.80% E -1.94% K -2.72% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 28.46%EV -7.52% E -2.31% K -3.34% G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-03 18:40
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78% NM 43.81%EV -7.92% E -3.86% K -7.54% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 27.22%EV -12.13% E -3.68% K -5.27% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 28.97%EV -11.78% E -3.80% K -5.61% G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-08 02:49
Sky Bet2.00I 50.00% NM 43.26%EV -10.17% E -5.08% K -10.17% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 27.91%EV -17.46% E -5.63% K -8.31% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 28.84%EV -14.63% E -4.88% K -7.31% G +0.000%15.6%2026-06-08 02:49
Winamax (DE)1.94I 51.55% NM 45.00%EV -12.86% E -6.63% K -13.68% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 27.28%EV -14.79% E -4.62% K -6.72% G +0.000%3.15I 31.75% NM 27.72%EV -10.36% E -3.29% K -4.82% G +0.000%14.5%2026-06-03 18:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36% NM 43.04%EV -14.21% E -7.44% K -15.62% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 26.52%EV -17.46% E -5.63% K -8.31% G +0.000%2.70I 37.04% NM 30.45%EV -23.17% E -8.58% K -13.63% G +0.000%21.7%2026-06-08 02:49
Unibet (FR)1.90I 52.63% NM 44.90%EV -14.66% E -7.72% K -16.29% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 26.66%EV -14.79% E -4.62% K -6.72% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 28.44%EV -14.63% E -4.88% K -7.31% G +0.000%17.2%2026-06-03 18:40
Winamax (FR)1.88I 53.19% NM 44.78%EV -15.56% E -8.28% K -17.68% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 27.16%EV -17.46% E -5.63% K -8.31% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 28.06%EV -14.63% E -4.88% K -7.31% G +0.000%18.8%2026-06-03 18:39
Betclic (FR)1.87I 53.48% NM 45.30%EV -16.01% E -8.56% K -18.40% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 26.47%EV -14.79% E -4.62% K -6.72% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 28.23%EV -14.63% E -4.88% K -7.31% G +0.000%18.1%2026-06-03 18:38
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth