La escuela de los momios

Mirassol v Fluminense

Inicio: 2026-05-23 22:00 UTC

Final: Mirassol 1–0 Fluminense

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Mirassol (Local)

Predicción 36.30%2.75momio equitativo
EV -0.164%
Ventaja -0.060%
Kelly -0.094%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.94%36.23%36.26%37.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.352.562.572.7542.55%39.02%38.91%36.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Fluminense (Visitante)

Predicción 32.32%3.09momio equitativo
EV +0.196%
Ventaja +0.063%
Kelly +0.093%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.14%32.44%32.41%34.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.652.892.903.1037.74%34.62%34.48%32.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 31.37%3.19momio equitativo
EV -2.74%
Ventaja -0.883%
Kelly -1.30%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.12%31.33%31.33%32.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.802.962.993.1035.71%33.78%33.44%32.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)2.63I 38.02%NM 36.89%EV -4.52%E -1.72%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.30%EV +0.196%E +0.063%K +0.093%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.81%EV -4.31%E -1.41%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-23 21:39
Svenska Spel2.63I 38.02%NM 36.89%EV -4.52%E -1.72%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.30%EV +0.196%E +0.063%K +0.093%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.81%EV -4.31%E -1.41%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-23 21:39
Pinnacle2.64I 37.88%NM 36.65%EV -4.16%E -1.57%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 32.04%EV -2.39%E -0.791%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.31%EV -3.05%E -0.988%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-23 21:40
Fanatics2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.61%E -2.16%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -3.04%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -5.88%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-23 21:39
SportsBet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.42%E -2.91%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.48%EV -3.04%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.48%EV -5.88%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 21:40
Unibet (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -7.42%E -2.91%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -3.04%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-23 21:39
Casumo2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -7.42%E -2.91%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -3.04%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-23 21:39
Grosvenor2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -7.42%E -2.91%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -3.04%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-23 21:39
Unibet (NL)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -7.42%E -2.91%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -3.04%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-23 21:39
Unibet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -7.42%E -2.91%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -3.04%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-23 21:40
betPARX2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -7.42%E -2.91%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -3.04%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-23 21:39
BetRivers2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -7.42%E -2.91%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -3.04%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -9.01%E -3.11%K -4.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 21:39
Coolbet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.95%EV -3.79%E -1.43%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.29%EV -4.65%E -1.58%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.76%EV -5.88%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-23 21:49
DraftKings2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -5.61%E -2.16%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.07%EV -4.65%E -1.58%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -5.88%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-23 21:28
FanDuel2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -7.42%E -2.91%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -4.65%E -1.58%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -5.88%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-23 21:39
LeoVegas2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -9.24%E -3.70%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -4.65%E -1.58%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -9.64%E -3.35%K -5.13%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 21:39
LeoVegas (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -9.24%E -3.70%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -4.65%E -1.58%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -9.64%E -3.35%K -5.13%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 21:39
1xBet2.75I 36.36%NM 35.25%EV -0.164%E -0.060%K -0.094%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 33.08%EV -5.30%E -1.81%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.67%EV -3.99%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-23 21:49
GTbets2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -5.61%E -2.16%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.25%EV -5.30%E -1.81%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.40%EV -5.56%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 21:30
LowVig.ag2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -1.98%E -0.733%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.59%EV -5.62%E -1.93%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.15%EV -7.13%E -2.41%K -3.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-23 21:10
BetOnline.ag2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -1.98%E -0.733%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.59%EV -5.62%E -1.93%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.15%EV -7.13%E -2.41%K -3.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-23 21:10
BetAnything2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -1.98%E -0.733%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.59%EV -5.62%E -1.93%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.15%EV -7.13%E -2.41%K -3.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-23 21:09
Marathon Bet2.56I 39.06%NM 36.44%EV -7.06%E -2.76%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.05%EV -5.95%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.51%EV -7.13%E -2.41%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 21:49
Bet Victor2.55I 39.22%NM 37.01%EV -7.42%E -2.91%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -6.27%E -2.16%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -2.74%E -0.883%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 21:49
Coral2.62I 38.17%NM 36.01%EV -4.88%E -1.86%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -6.27%E -2.16%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.45%EV -5.88%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 21:19
Betway2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -5.61%E -2.16%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -6.27%E -2.16%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.88%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-23 21:39
Unibet (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -5.61%E -2.16%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -6.27%E -2.16%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.88%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-23 21:30
Codere (IT)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -5.61%E -2.16%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -6.27%E -2.16%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.88%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-23 21:29
Everygame2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -7.42%E -2.91%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -6.27%E -2.16%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -5.88%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 21:49
TABtouch2.48I 40.32%NM 36.69%EV -9.97%E -4.02%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -6.27%E -2.16%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -10.58%E -3.71%K -5.72%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-23 21:40
PMU (FR)2.48I 40.32%NM 36.69%EV -9.97%E -4.02%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -6.27%E -2.16%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -10.58%E -3.71%K -5.72%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-23 21:39
BetMGM2.60I 38.46%NM 36.11%EV -5.61%E -2.16%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.60%EV -6.91%E -2.40%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.29%EV -5.88%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 21:19
Bovada2.59I 38.61%NM 36.20%EV -5.97%E -2.31%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.55%EV -6.91%E -2.40%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.88%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 21:46
BetUS2.59I 38.61%NM 36.20%EV -5.97%E -2.31%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.55%EV -6.91%E -2.40%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.88%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 21:49
Betsson2.58I 38.76%NM 36.21%EV -6.34%E -2.46%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.44%EV -6.91%E -2.40%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.35%EV -6.50%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 21:50
NordicBet2.58I 38.76%NM 36.21%EV -6.34%E -2.46%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.44%EV -6.91%E -2.40%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.35%EV -6.50%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 21:50
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -9.24%E -3.70%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -6.91%E -2.40%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -9.01%E -3.11%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-23 21:40
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -9.24%E -3.70%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -6.91%E -2.40%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -9.01%E -3.11%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-23 21:40
LiveScore Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 36.69%EV -11.06%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.21%EV -6.91%E -2.40%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.10%EV -12.15%E -4.34%K -6.75%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-23 21:39
Virgin Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 36.69%EV -11.06%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.21%EV -6.91%E -2.40%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.10%EV -12.15%E -4.34%K -6.75%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-23 21:40
Ladbrokes (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -5.61%E -2.16%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.67%EV -7.24%E -2.52%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.26%EV -5.88%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 21:10
Neds2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -5.61%E -2.16%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -7.88%E -2.77%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.88%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-23 21:10
Ladbrokes (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -5.61%E -2.16%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -7.88%E -2.77%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.88%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-23 21:09
PlayUp2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -7.42%E -2.91%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.60%EV -7.88%E -2.77%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.88%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-23 21:50
888sport (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -5.61%E -2.16%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -9.50%E -3.39%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -9.01%E -3.11%K -4.74%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-23 21:49
Paddy Power2.45I 40.82%NM 36.69%EV -11.06%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.10%EV -9.50%E -3.39%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.21%EV -9.64%E -3.35%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-23 21:39
Sky Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 36.36%EV -11.06%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -9.50%E -3.39%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -12.15%E -4.34%K -6.75%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-23 21:40
Betclic (FR)2.43I 41.15%NM 36.75%EV -11.78%E -4.85%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.13%EV -10.15%E -3.65%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.12%EV -9.95%E -3.47%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-23 21:39
PointsBet (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -5.61%E -2.16%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -11.12%E -4.04%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -2.74%E -0.883%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-23 21:10
Bet Right2.60I 38.46%NM 35.74%EV -5.61%E -2.16%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -11.12%E -4.04%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -4.31%E -1.41%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-23 21:09
Betr (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.19%EV -7.42%E -2.91%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.56%EV -11.12%E -4.04%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -4.31%E -1.41%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-23 21:09
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -4.88%E -1.86%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -11.12%E -4.04%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -9.64%E -3.35%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-23 21:50
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -4.88%E -1.86%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -11.12%E -4.04%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -9.64%E -3.35%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-23 21:50
Winamax (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.24%E -3.70%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -11.12%E -4.04%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -5.88%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-23 21:29
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.24%E -3.70%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -11.12%E -4.04%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -5.88%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-23 21:10
Tipico (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -5.61%E -2.16%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -12.73%E -4.72%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -5.88%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-23 21:39
Unibet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 36.91%EV -14.69%E -6.25%K -10.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.12%EV -12.73%E -4.72%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.97%EV -12.15%E -4.34%K -6.75%G +0.000%15.3%2026-05-23 21:38
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.39%EV -12.87%E -5.36%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.96%EV -14.35%E -5.41%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.65%EV -10.58%E -3.71%K -5.72%G +0.000%14.5%2026-05-23 21:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.70I 37.04%NM 36.84%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.58%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.58%0.5%2026-05-23 21:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.68I 37.31%NM 37.02%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49%0.8%2026-05-23 21:50
Smarkets2.70I 37.04%NM 36.66%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.42%1.0%2026-05-23 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.66%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.42%1.0%2026-05-23 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.66%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.42%1.0%2026-05-23 21:50
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.33%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.39%2.1%2026-05-23 21:30