Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio v Internacional

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 20:30 UTC

Final: Grêmio 1–1 Internacional

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio (Local)

Prediction 34.84%2.87fair odd
EV +2.77%
Edge +0.938%
Kelly +1.42%
Growth +0.039%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.57%34.77%34.91%36.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.692.692.9540.00%37.12%37.17%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Internacional (Visit)

Prediction 35.59%2.81fair odd
EV +2.50%
Edge +0.870%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.34%35.72%35.59%38.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.582.602.8843.48%38.77%38.46%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.57%3.38fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -0.823%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.11%29.51%29.49%30.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.933.143.153.2934.13%31.85%31.75%30.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio (Local): 34.84%; Internacional (Visit): 35.59%; Draw: 29.57%. For Grêmio (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.87. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.77%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.63%EV +2.77%E +0.938%K +1.42%G +0.039%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.75%EV -9.24%E -3.62%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.62%EV -3.89%E -1.20%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-11 20:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.63%EV +2.77%E +0.938%K +1.42%G +0.039%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.75%EV -9.24%E -3.62%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.62%EV -3.89%E -1.20%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-11 20:09
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.59%EV -0.716%E -0.251%K -0.387%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -11.73%E -4.73%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -8.33%E -2.69%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-11 20:10
Casumo🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.59%EV -0.716%E -0.251%K -0.387%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -11.73%E -4.73%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -8.33%E -2.69%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-11 20:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.59%EV -0.716%E -0.251%K -0.387%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -11.73%E -4.73%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -8.33%E -2.69%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-11 20:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.59%EV -0.716%E -0.251%K -0.387%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -11.73%E -4.73%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -8.33%E -2.69%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-11 20:09
Grosvenor🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.59%EV -0.716%E -0.251%K -0.387%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -11.73%E -4.73%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -8.33%E -2.69%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-11 20:09
betPARX🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.59%EV -0.716%E -0.251%K -0.387%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -11.73%E -4.73%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -8.33%E -2.69%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-11 20:09
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -2.46%E -0.878%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -13.51%E -5.56%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.90%EV -9.81%E -3.22%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-11 20:09
Pinnacle🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 34.63%EV -2.81%E -1.01%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.92%EV -4.26%E -1.58%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.46%EV -3.00%E -0.916%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-11 20:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 33.71%EV -3.85%E -1.40%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -7.46%E -2.87%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.51%EV -9.81%E -3.22%K -4.78%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-11 19:40
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.20%E -1.53%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.82%EV -5.68%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -5.37%E -1.68%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 20:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.36%EV -4.20%E -1.53%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.65%EV -5.68%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -6.85%E -2.17%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-11 19:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.80%EV -4.20%E -1.53%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.12%EV -13.51%E -5.56%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.07%EV -11.28%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-11 19:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.80%EV -4.20%E -1.53%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.12%EV -13.51%E -5.56%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.07%EV -11.28%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-11 19:49
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.80%EV -4.20%E -1.53%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.12%EV -13.51%E -5.56%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.07%EV -11.28%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-11 19:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -4.20%E -1.53%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -14.58%E -6.07%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -11.28%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-11 20:09
PMU (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -4.20%E -1.53%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -14.58%E -6.07%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -11.28%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-11 20:10
GTbets🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.46%EV -4.90%E -1.79%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.05%EV -7.11%E -2.72%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.49%EV -5.67%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 20:00
Coolbet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.00%EV -5.24%E -1.93%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.26%EV -3.90%E -1.45%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -5.37%E -1.68%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-11 20:20
BetUS🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.33%EV -5.94%E -2.20%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.33%EV -3.90%E -1.45%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -3.89%E -1.20%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-11 20:20
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.09%EV -5.94%E -2.20%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.75%EV -5.68%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%EV -3.89%E -1.20%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-11 20:24
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -5.94%E -2.20%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.59%EV -5.68%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -5.37%E -1.68%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 20:04
FanDuel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -5.94%E -2.20%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.59%EV -5.68%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -5.37%E -1.68%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 20:19
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -5.94%E -2.20%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.59%EV -5.68%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -5.37%E -1.68%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 19:59
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -5.94%E -2.20%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.59%EV -5.68%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -5.37%E -1.68%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 20:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -5.94%E -2.20%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -5.68%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -8.33%E -2.69%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 19:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -5.94%E -2.20%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -14.58%E -6.07%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -3.89%E -1.20%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-11 19:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 36.03%EV -6.64%E -2.48%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.61%EV -0.699%E -0.251%K -0.390%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.35%EV -2.71%E -0.823%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-11 20:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 36.03%EV -6.64%E -2.48%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.61%EV -0.699%E -0.251%K -0.390%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.35%EV -2.71%E -0.823%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-11 20:05
BetAnything🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 36.03%EV -6.64%E -2.48%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.61%EV -0.699%E -0.251%K -0.390%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.35%EV -2.71%E -0.823%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-11 20:05
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -7.68%E -2.90%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -5.68%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -5.37%E -1.68%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-11 20:14
Betsson🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.20%EV -7.68%E -2.90%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.20%EV -5.68%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -6.85%E -2.17%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-11 20:09
NordicBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -7.68%E -2.90%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -5.68%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -8.33%E -2.69%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-11 20:08
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -7.68%E -2.90%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -5.68%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -8.33%E -2.69%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-11 19:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -7.68%E -2.90%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -11.02%E -4.41%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -5.37%E -1.68%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-11 20:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.68%EV -7.68%E -2.90%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.98%EV -16.36%E -6.96%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.34%EV -6.85%E -2.17%K -3.19%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-11 19:44
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.94%EV -7.68%E -2.90%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.96%EV -18.14%E -7.89%K -13.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.10%EV -11.28%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-11 20:04
betano_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.85%EV -8.73%E -3.33%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -3.90%E -1.45%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -5.37%E -1.68%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-11 20:24
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.85%EV -8.73%E -3.33%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -3.90%E -1.45%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -5.37%E -1.68%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-11 20:24
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -8.73%E -3.33%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -6.75%E -2.58%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -3.89%E -1.20%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 20:24
1xBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.93%EV -9.43%E -3.63%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.34%EV +2.50%E +0.870%K +1.33%G +0.033%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.73%EV -4.48%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-11 20:20
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -9.43%E -3.63%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -7.46%E -2.87%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -3.89%E -1.20%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-11 20:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -9.43%E -3.63%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -7.46%E -2.87%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -3.89%E -1.20%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-11 20:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -9.43%E -3.63%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -7.46%E -2.87%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -3.89%E -1.20%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-11 20:24
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -9.43%E -3.63%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -7.46%E -2.87%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -8.33%E -2.69%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-11 19:39
TAB🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -9.43%E -3.63%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -7.46%E -2.87%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -8.33%E -2.69%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-11 20:09
888sport🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -9.43%E -3.63%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -6.75%E -2.58%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -11.28%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-11 20:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -9.43%E -3.63%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -6.75%E -2.58%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -11.28%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-11 20:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -9.43%E -3.63%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -6.75%E -2.58%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -11.28%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-11 20:24
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -9.43%E -3.63%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -6.75%E -2.58%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -11.28%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-11 20:24
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -9.43%E -3.63%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -11.02%E -4.41%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -8.33%E -2.69%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-11 20:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -9.43%E -3.63%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -11.02%E -4.41%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -8.33%E -2.69%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-11 20:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 34.18%EV -10.47%E -4.07%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.85%EV -12.80%E -5.22%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 29.98%EV -13.35%E -4.56%K -6.92%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-11 20:04
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -12.91%E -5.16%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -7.46%E -2.87%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -5.37%E -1.68%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-11 20:24
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.29%EV -12.91%E -5.16%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.29%EV -11.02%E -4.41%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.41%EV -11.28%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-11 20:16
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.81%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.82%3.39I 29.50%NM 29.37%0.4%2026-10-11 20:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 35.00%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.76%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24%0.6%2026-10-11 20:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 35.00%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.76%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24%0.6%2026-10-11 20:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 35.00%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.76%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24%0.6%2026-10-11 20:25
Matchbook◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.16%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.67%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-10-11 20:25
Smarkets◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.76%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.77%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%1.3%2026-10-11 20:25