The School of Odds
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Grêmio v Atletico Paranaense

2026-10-30 00:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio (Local)

Prediction 42.33%2.36fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -2.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.79%42.25%42.57%43.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.172.152.3050.00%46.04%46.51%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atletico Paranaense (Visit)

Prediction 28.81%3.47fair odd
EV -4.93%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -2.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.91%28.82%28.64%32.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.123.253.3037.04%32.09%30.77%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.86%3.46fair odd
EV -3.60%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.38%28.93%28.79%29.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.163.103.3433.33%31.63%32.26%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Grêmio (Local): 42.33%; Atletico Paranaense (Visit): 28.81%; Draw: 28.86%. For Grêmio (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.36. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.30, with an expected value of -2.64%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.73%EV -2.64%E -1.15%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.53%EV -6.37%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.74%EV -3.60%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-19 19:24
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.76%E -2.12%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -4.93%E -1.49%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-19 19:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.73%EV -5.61%E -2.51%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -9.25%E -2.94%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.72%EV -6.49%E -2.00%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-19 19:20
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.88%E -3.13%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.93%E -1.49%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-19 19:15
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.88%E -3.13%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.93%E -1.49%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-19 19:20
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -6.88%E -3.13%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.69%E -3.45%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-19 19:19
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -8.99%E -4.18%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -6.37%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.01%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-19 15:25
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -8.99%E -4.18%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -6.37%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.01%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-19 15:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -8.99%E -4.18%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -6.37%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.01%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-19 15:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -8.99%E -4.18%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -6.37%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.01%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-19 15:24
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -8.99%E -4.18%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.69%E -3.45%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-19 19:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.75%EV -8.99%E -4.18%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -20.77%E -7.55%K -11.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.38%EV -7.64%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-19 19:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.34%EV -8.99%E -4.18%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.12%EV -22.21%E -8.23%K -13.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.53%EV -9.09%E -2.88%K -4.23%G +0.000%15.3%2026-10-19 18:59
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.79%EV -8.99%E -4.18%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.69%EV -22.21%E -8.23%K -13.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.52%EV -13.42%E -4.47%K -6.71%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-19 19:00
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.26%EV -15.34%E -7.67%K -15.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -10.69%E -3.45%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.84%EV -13.42%E -4.47%K -6.71%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-19 14:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%3.08I 32.47%NM 29.52%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.14%10.0%2026-10-19 19:15
Smarkets◎2.16I 46.30%NM 39.78%2.72I 36.76%NM 31.59%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.64%16.4%2026-10-19 19:05