The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Grêmio v Atletico Paranaense

Kickoff: 2026-10-30 00:30 UTC

Final: Grêmio 2–0 Atletico Paranaense

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio (Local)

Prediction 41.72%2.40fair odd
EV +1.38%
Edge +0.567%
Kelly +0.964%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.80%41.69%41.67%42.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.242.252.4347.62%44.62%44.44%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atletico Paranaense (Visit)

Prediction 30.55%3.27fair odd
EV +2.35%
Edge +0.701%
Kelly +0.999%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.83%30.55%30.56%31.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.013.003.3536.36%33.21%33.33%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.73%3.61fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -0.843%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.51%27.76%27.77%29.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.313.303.5032.26%30.21%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio (Local): 41.72%; Atletico Paranaense (Visit): 30.55%; Draw: 27.73%. For Atletico Paranaense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.27. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.35%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.93%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.83%EV +2.35%E +0.701%K +0.999%G +0.023%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.24%EV -5.17%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-30 00:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.93%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.83%EV +2.35%E +0.701%K +0.999%G +0.023%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.24%EV -5.17%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-30 00:15
BetAnything🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.93%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.83%EV +2.35%E +0.701%K +0.999%G +0.023%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.24%EV -5.17%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-30 00:15
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 42.35%EV -4.46%E -1.95%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.94%EV -1.01%E -0.313%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.71%EV -2.95%E -0.843%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-30 00:00
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.54%EV -3.63%E -1.57%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.99%EV -2.24%E -0.698%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.47%EV -6.55%E -1.94%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-29 21:05
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -8.22%E -3.73%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -2.24%E -0.698%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-30 00:05
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -8.22%E -3.73%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -2.24%E -0.698%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.50%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-30 00:05
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.54%EV -1.96%E -0.833%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.24%EV -3.76%E -1.19%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.22%EV -9.60%E -2.95%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-29 22:49
GTbets🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.11%EV -4.46%E -1.95%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.27%EV -4.98%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.62%EV -8.77%E -2.67%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-30 00:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.35%EV +1.38%E +0.567%K +0.964%G +0.013%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.63%EV -5.29%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.02%EV -2.95%E -0.843%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.0%2026-10-29 23:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.35%EV +1.38%E +0.567%K +0.964%G +0.013%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.63%EV -5.29%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.02%EV -2.95%E -0.843%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.0%2026-10-29 23:55
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -5.29%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-30 00:05
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -8.22%E -3.73%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -5.29%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -2.95%E -0.843%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-30 00:05
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -8.22%E -3.73%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -5.29%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -2.95%E -0.843%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-30 00:04
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -8.22%E -3.73%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -5.29%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-30 00:05
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -5.29%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -9.88%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-30 00:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.50%EV -6.55%E -2.92%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -5.29%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.51%EV -9.60%E -2.95%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-29 21:00
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.68%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -6.82%E -2.24%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-30 00:05
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -6.82%E -2.24%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -7.11%E -2.12%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-30 00:05
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -6.82%E -2.24%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -7.11%E -2.12%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-30 00:05
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.83%EV -7.38%E -3.33%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.45%EV -6.82%E -2.24%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -7.11%E -2.12%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-30 00:05
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.66%EV -7.38%E -3.33%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -6.82%E -2.24%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -8.50%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-30 00:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -8.35%E -2.78%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-30 00:04
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -8.35%E -2.78%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.50%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-30 00:05
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.35%E -2.78%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-30 00:00
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.35%E -2.78%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-30 00:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.35%E -2.78%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-30 00:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.35%E -2.78%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-30 00:05
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -12.39%E -5.90%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -8.35%E -2.78%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-30 00:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -12.39%E -5.90%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -8.35%E -2.78%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-30 00:15
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -12.39%E -5.90%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -8.35%E -2.78%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -14.04%E -4.53%K -6.69%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-30 00:19
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -3.21%E -1.38%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -9.87%E -3.35%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -8.50%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-29 23:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -3.21%E -1.38%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -9.87%E -3.35%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -8.50%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-29 23:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -3.21%E -1.38%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -9.87%E -3.35%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -8.50%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-29 23:55
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -3.21%E -1.38%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -9.87%E -3.35%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -8.50%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-29 23:55
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -3.21%E -1.38%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -9.87%E -3.35%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -8.50%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-29 23:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -9.87%E -3.35%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-29 21:30
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -9.87%E -3.35%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-29 23:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -9.87%E -3.35%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-29 21:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -12.39%E -5.90%K -11.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -9.87%E -3.35%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-30 00:05
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -4.04%E -1.76%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -11.40%E -3.93%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.88%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-29 23:55
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -12.01%E -4.17%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -8.50%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-29 21:30
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -8.22%E -3.73%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -12.01%E -4.17%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -9.88%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-29 23:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.34%EV -8.22%E -3.73%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.91%EV -12.93%E -4.54%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-30 00:05
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.80%EV -4.88%E -2.14%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.84%EV -12.93%E -4.54%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-29 23:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.12%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -12.93%E -4.54%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-29 23:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.12%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -12.93%E -4.54%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-29 23:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.12%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -12.93%E -4.54%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-29 23:55
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.12%EV -6.13%E -2.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -12.93%E -4.54%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-29 23:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.93%EV -6.96%E -3.12%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.80%EV -14.46%E -5.16%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.27%EV -12.65%E -4.02%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-29 23:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.45%EV -12.39%E -5.90%K -11.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.09%EV -14.46%E -5.16%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 27.46%EV -12.10%E -3.82%K -5.58%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-30 00:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.50%EV -12.39%E -5.90%K -11.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.69%EV -15.98%E -5.81%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.81%EV -9.88%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-30 00:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.97%EV -12.39%E -5.90%K -11.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.28%EV -15.98%E -5.81%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.75%EV -14.04%E -4.53%K -6.69%G +0.000%16.2%2026-10-30 00:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.81%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.98%0.7%2026-10-30 00:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.81%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.98%0.7%2026-10-30 00:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.81%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.98%0.7%2026-10-30 00:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.81%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.98%0.7%2026-10-30 00:05
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.51%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.74%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.74%1.0%2026-10-30 00:20
Smarkets◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.62%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.86%1.1%2026-10-30 00:15

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