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Fluminense v Palmeiras

2026-08-15 19:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fluminense (Local)

Prediction 34.74%2.88fair odd
EV -3.08%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.77%34.63%34.82%35.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.642.702.7940.82%37.82%37.04%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Palmeiras (Visit)

Prediction 35.34%2.83fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.80%35.33%35.22%36.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.592.622.7440.82%38.56%38.17%36.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.92%3.34fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -0.848%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.99%30.04%29.96%31.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.873.043.053.2534.84%32.86%32.79%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Fluminense (Local): 34.74%; Palmeiras (Visit): 35.34%; Draw: 29.92%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.34. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.25, with an expected value of -2.76%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.79I 35.84%NM 34.40%EV -3.08%E -1.10%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.03%EV -3.17%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.57%EV -6.05%E -1.93%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-02 13:34
Coolbet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -4.47%E -1.63%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.98%EV -6.35%E -2.40%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.34%EV -2.76%E -0.848%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-02 12:55
Fanatics2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.47%E -1.63%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.82%EV -6.35%E -2.40%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 13:20
Marathon Bet2.71I 36.90%NM 34.40%EV -5.86%E -2.16%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.04%EV -5.99%E -2.25%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -8.74%E -2.87%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 13:29
SportsBet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -6.21%E -2.30%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.59%EV -6.35%E -2.40%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-02 12:54
FanDuel2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -6.21%E -2.30%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.59%EV -6.35%E -2.40%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-02 12:55
LeoVegas2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -6.21%E -2.30%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -11.65%E -4.66%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -7.24%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 15:39
888sport (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -6.21%E -2.30%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.41%E -2.83%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-02 13:29
Mr Green (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -6.21%E -2.30%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.41%E -2.83%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-02 13:30
888sport2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -6.21%E -2.30%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.41%E -2.83%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-02 13:29
William Hill2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -6.21%E -2.30%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.41%E -2.83%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-02 13:29
Betsson2.68I 37.31%NM 35.08%EV -6.90%E -2.58%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.08%EV -5.29%E -1.97%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -5.75%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-02 16:40
NordicBet2.68I 37.31%NM 35.08%EV -6.90%E -2.58%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.08%EV -5.29%E -1.97%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -5.75%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-02 16:40
Bet Right2.65I 37.74%NM 35.20%EV -7.94%E -3.00%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.20%EV -6.35%E -2.40%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -5.75%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 13:00
Codere (IT)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -7.94%E -3.00%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -6.35%E -2.40%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -7.24%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-02 13:00
Paddy Power2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -9.68%E -3.72%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -11.65%E -4.66%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-02 12:57
Unibet (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 34.94%EV -13.16%E -5.26%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.94%EV -11.65%E -4.66%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.12%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-02 13:00
Sky Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 34.69%EV -13.16%E -5.26%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.40%EV -13.42%E -5.48%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.91%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%15.3%2026-08-02 13:00
Betclic (FR)2.47I 40.49%NM 34.96%EV -14.20%E -5.75%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 34.96%EV -12.71%E -5.15%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.09%EV -14.13%E -4.92%K -7.55%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-02 12:59
Winamax (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 35.50%EV -14.89%E -6.08%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.50%EV -13.42%E -5.48%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.99%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-02 13:00
Winamax (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 35.33%EV -14.89%E -6.08%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.33%EV -13.42%E -5.48%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.34%EV -11.73%E -3.98%K -6.02%G +0.000%15.5%2026-08-02 13:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.