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Fluminense v Bragantino-SP

Kickoff: 2026-07-22 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fluminense (Local)

Prediction 54.26%1.84fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -2.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.33%54.14%54.26%54.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.691.711.8062.89%59.07%58.48%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bragantino-SP (Visit)

Prediction 19.15%5.22fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -0.539%
Kelly -0.671%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.77%19.21%19.15%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.644.755.0825.00%21.55%21.05%19.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.59%3.76fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.437%
Kelly -0.599%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.44%26.65%26.59%28.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.383.403.7034.72%29.57%29.41%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fluminense (Local): 54.26%; Bragantino-SP (Visit): 19.15%; Draw: 26.59%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.76. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.70, with an expected value of -1.62%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.93%EV -2.32%E -1.29%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -4.27%E -0.854%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -9.60%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-04 03:30
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.35%EV -3.95%E -2.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -4.27%E -0.854%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -9.60%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-04 03:29
1xBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.57%EV -4.50%E -2.55%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.08I 19.69%NM 18.90%EV -2.74%E -0.539%K -0.671%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.53%EV -3.75%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-10 08:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -5.04%E -2.88%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -4.27%E -0.854%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -9.60%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-04 03:29
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -5.04%E -2.88%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -4.27%E -0.854%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -9.60%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-04 03:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -5.04%E -2.88%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -4.27%E -0.854%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -9.60%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-04 03:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.69%EV -6.12%E -3.54%K -8.39%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.76%EV -10.01%E -2.13%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-04 03:30
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -6.67%E -3.88%K -9.26%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -9.05%E -1.91%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -1.62%E -0.437%K -0.599%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-07 12:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.61%EV -7.21%E -4.22%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.86%EV -5.23%E -1.06%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.53%EV -6.40%E -1.82%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-10 08:09
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.90%EV -8.29%E -4.91%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -8.10%E -1.69%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-07 12:38
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.11%EV -9.38%E -5.62%K -14.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -13.84%E -3.08%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-07 12:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.19%EV -11.01%E -6.71%K -17.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.77%EV -19.59%E -4.66%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.04%EV -10.92%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%14.6%2026-06-04 03:30
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.07%EV -12.09%E -7.46%K -19.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.47%EV -19.59%E -4.66%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.46%EV -13.58%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%16.3%2026-06-07 12:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 51.33%EV -12.09%E -7.46%K -19.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 19.80%EV -19.59%E -4.66%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.87%EV -23.42%E -8.13%K -12.46%G +0.000%20.3%2026-06-07 12:39
Unibet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 53.26%EV -12.63%E -7.85%K -20.71%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.94%EV -17.67%E -4.11%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.80%EV -14.91%E -4.66%K -6.78%G +0.000%16.6%2026-06-04 03:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 52.63%EV -13.18%E -8.24%K -21.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.05%EV -23.41%E -5.85%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.32%EV -14.91%E -4.66%K -6.78%G +0.000%18.8%2026-06-04 03:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 53.19%EV -13.72%E -8.63%K -23.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.14%EV -19.59%E -4.66%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 26.68%EV -15.71%E -4.96%K -7.24%G +0.000%18.2%2026-06-04 03:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 31.66%1.17I 85.47%NM 31.66%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.68%170.0%2026-06-06 15:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 31.66%1.17I 85.47%NM 31.66%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.68%170.0%2026-06-06 15:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 31.66%1.17I 85.47%NM 31.66%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.68%170.0%2026-06-06 15:49

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